The Bills are 6-1. Josh Allen passed Jim Kelly for the most touchdown passes in team history. A defense that gave up 28.5 points a game before the bye held Baltimore to 10, though Lamar Jackson threw one pass before his thumb ended his day. Here's what Sunday told us, and the rest of this piece is the proof.
What we learned
- The defense came out of the bye with a new plan. It sent extra rushers on 20 of 31 dropbacks. Its previous high was 42%. Defenses usually blitz backup quarterbacks less than starters, so this wasn't a reaction to Lamar leaving. It was a choice.
- That plan doubled down on what wasn't working. Before the bye, the Bills' blitzes were worse calls than rushing four. Around the league it's the other way.
- The secondary has turned over. The five defensive backs who started week 1 played 91% of the snaps that day. Sunday they played 42%. One was released this morning.
- The defense still hasn't proven it's fixed. Every opponent in the first six games did better against Buffalo than against everyone else. Take Sunday out and the defense ranks 31st in points allowed per play.
- The offense can win ugly. Sunday was its quietest game of the year, and it still scored 36.
- D.J. Moore's targets come out of Keon Coleman's. That matters this week, because Moore left Sunday on a bad knee.
The plan changed, and it wasn't about the backup
Jim Leonhard came out of the bye blitzing. On the opening snap Terrel Bernard came on a blitz, and the Bills kept sending extra rushers all game. They also moved Leonhard up to the booth to call it, which Joe Brady confirmed Monday.
The easy read is that you blitz a backup. The league doesn't. Since 2022, defenses have blitzed backup quarterbacks 26% of the time and starters 28%. Backups get sacked more anyway, because they hold the ball, so a four-man rush is usually enough. Lamar went down on the first series and Leonhard kept blitzing. That's a plan he brought out of the bye, and the backup just happened to be the one facing it.
It got home. Bills defenders hit the quarterback on 12 of 31 dropbacks, 39%. Their best game before Sunday was 23%. Eight different players got a hit. Landon Jackson and T.J. Parker got the first sacks of their careers. Cole Bishop came free on a third-down blitz, knocked the ball out of Tyler Huntley's hands, and Kaleb Elarms-Orr fell on it at the Baltimore 20.
Here's the part nobody is saying out loud. Before the bye, blitzing made this defense worse.
Around the league, a blitz is the better call. Offenses gain about nothing when they're blitzed and gain more when a defense rushes four. Buffalo was the reverse. In weeks 1 through 6, offenses gained more per dropback when the Bills blitzed than when they rushed four. The extra rusher wasn't getting there, and the hole he left behind was getting found.
So Leonhard took the call that wasn't working and made it two-thirds of his calls. Either he fixed something in the bye, or it's a gamble. Sunday can't settle it. Against Fagnano, the blitzes worked and the four-man rushes worked even better. Davison Igbinosun's interception and Fagnano's botched snap both came with no blitz on.
The secondary has turned over
C.J. Gardner-Johnson started all six games he played and was on the field for at least 95% of the snaps in five of them. In Las Vegas he was ejected for spitting. He sat Sunday on a one-game suspension. Today, the day after he was eligible to come back, the Bills released him. NFL Network's Cameron Wolfe reported it was more about inconsistent play than the spitting.
He's the headline, but he's one of five. Follow each name across the season.
Twelve defensive backs have taken a snap for this team. The bottom row is the story. The five who started week 1 played 91% of the snaps in the opener and 42% on Sunday. Of the five defensive backs who played most of Sunday, three weren't starting in week 1.
- Damar Hamlin played about a third of the snaps for the first five weeks. Sunday he played every one of them, the only Bills defender on the field for all 51 plays. With Gardner-Johnson gone, the job is his.
- Davison Igbinosun played 14% in week 1. He's a rookie, and since week 4 he's been a starter. He took the job from Maxwell Hairston, a first-round pick in 2025, who has played 39% or less in three straight games. Igbinosun's interception Sunday bounced off Geno Stone's helmet.
- Te'Cory Couch was signed off the practice squad Saturday and played 71% at nickel. Dee Alford, a week 1 starter, was out with an ankle injury.
- Geno Stone was called up from the practice squad and played 37%.
Here's the hole. The safeties left on the roster are Bishop, Hamlin, Sam Franklin and a rookie, Jalon Kilgore. Stone is a practice-squad call-up. The trade deadline is a week from today and the Bills have under $5 million in cap room. Safety went from a want to a need this morning.
The defense hasn't proven it's fixed yet
Here's the cleanest way we know to judge a game. Take what each opponent does against everyone else, and measure the Bills against that. If the Lions usually score a certain amount and score more against Buffalo, that's on the defense.
Through six games, the offense added 78 points beyond what those defenses usually allow. The defense gave back 59. Every single opponent, Stroud, Goff, Herbert, Maye, Stafford and Cousins, had a better day against Buffalo than against its other opponents. That's why five of the first six games were one-score games. The offense kept winning the argument and the defense kept reopening it.
Sunday the defense saved 28 points against the Ravens' normal, the only green bar of the season. Fagnano lost 0.42 points per dropback, when the league average is a gain of 0.05. Some of that is the plan. Some of it is a rookie who wasn't supposed to play.
That's why one game moves the season so much. With Sunday, the Bills defense ranks 23rd in points allowed per play. Without it, 31st.
The direction matters more than the rank, and third downs were the scariest part of it. They got worse four weeks in a row.
The Raiders converted 7 of 12 in the last game before the bye. Sunday the Ravens went 3 of 13, and Zay Flowers finished with zero catches on five targets. Derrick Henry ran 11 times for 53 yards and the Ravens' only touchdown, which came two plays after an Allen interception gave them the ball at the Buffalo 17. If you want one number to judge whether the bye changed anything, it's third downs against a starting quarterback.
The offense had its quietest day and still scored 36
Go back to the blue bars. Sunday's is plus one, the smallest of the season against what an opponent usually allows.
The Bills lead the league with 8.1 big plays a game, runs of 10 yards or more and passes of 20 or more. Sunday they had six. Allen still threw for 289 yards and two touchdowns and ran one in, and Dalton Kincaid played through a chest injury for 86 yards and a score. Nothing came easy.
So where did 36 come from? Three things.
- The defense handed them the ball in Baltimore's end. Drives starting at the Ravens' 20, 33 and 43 turned into a touchdown and two field goals.
- They had it all day. 75 offensive plays to Baltimore's 48.
- Tyler Bass doesn't miss. He made a 56-yarder and a 51-yarder Sunday. He's 16 of 16 on field goals this season. The league is at 83.7%.
The giveaways didn't stop. Allen's interception came on a ball Jackson Hawes bobbled into a defender's hands, and D.J. Moore lost a fumble at the Baltimore 20. That's 11 giveaways in seven games, 26th in the league, and it isn't one guy. Five different Bills have lost a fumble this season. A team this good on offense keeps winning games it plays sloppily, until the week it plays someone who makes it pay.
D.J. Moore's targets come out of Keon Coleman's
Moore came back from his shoulder injury and caught four balls for 82 yards and a touchdown. His return also showed how this passing game is built.
In the three games Moore has played most of the snaps, Keon Coleman got 7%, 8% and 9% of the targets. In the four games Moore missed or left early, Coleman got 21%, 23%, 11% and 20%. Nobody else's share swings like that. When Moore is healthy, Coleman is an afterthought. When Moore is out, Coleman gets about one target in five.
Moore hyperextended his left knee in the fourth quarter and limped off, and Joshua Palmer pulled his hamstring in the first. Which version of this receiving room shows up depends on Moore's knee.
The injury report
- D.J. Moore, WR: knee and shoulder. Hyperextended his left knee late. He says he's fine. Coleman's role swings on this one.
- Joshua Palmer, WR: hamstring. Pulled up on a deep route in the first quarter and didn't return.
- Spencer Brown, RT: back. Missed Sunday, a back problem that goes back to week 5. Tylan Grable played every snap at right tackle and Allen was sacked once.
- Dalton Kincaid, TE: chest. Played through it. 86 yards and a touchdown.
- Ed Oliver, DL: knee. Back after two missed games. 39% of the snaps, three quarterback hits.
- James Cook, RB: cleared. Concussion check late, then a shot to the leg. Returned both times. 21 carries for 80 yards and a touchdown.
- Greg Gaines, DL: calf. Dee Alford, CB: ankle. Both missed Sunday.
- Tyrell Shavers, WR: practice window open. Back from last year's torn ACL, eligible to be activated.
Leonhard put it better than we can: "We did it one week."
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