2026 NFL Draft Edge Rusher Rankings: StickToTheModel Top 10
EDGE — Top 10
Deep class. Two cleanly separated tiers inside the top 10.
Tier 1: four guys with disruptive traits and a realistic path to 10 sacks in year two. Bailey and Bain are the headliners. Faulk and Young quietly checking every age-adjusted box our numbers run.
Tier 2: six productive college players where the StickToTheModel rankings start separating them from the consensus — Jacas and Dennis-Sutton jumping closer to their production, Mesidor and Howell held back by older breakout curves, Kyle Louis defying his size, Parker a projection bet.
Every rank below is the StickToTheModel rank — our blend of the consensus big board and our career analytics (composite, peak-season score, breakout age, size).
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1. David Bailey — Texas Tech — 6'3", 250StickToTheModel EDGE1. Our #3 overall.
Consensus has him EDGE3 at #7. Tight range — ESPN 3, tek 7, CBS 20 is the only real wobble. Most scouts see a first-round pick. The top of the board is just arguing between him, Bain, and Arvell Reese.
Our analytics blow the roof off. 93rd percentile career composite. Peak-season score is the highest at the position — an 8.37 composite last year at Texas Tech. 27 career sacks. 93.3 PFF grade. 1.5 TFL per game.
Smaller frame than the prototype. The one flag is a breakout age of 21.6, which lands below our age filter. The production arc makes up for it — he got progressively more disruptive every year.
Top-5 ceiling. Top-10 floor. If he falls past 8, someone's stealing.
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2. Rueben Bain Jr — Miami (FL) — 6'3", 275Dwight Freeney comp is real.
Consensus EDGE2 at #6. Tight range — CBS 2, TDN 7, Brugler 9, PFF 5. The board agrees he's a top-10 player. The only debate is the order between him and Bailey.
Our analytics agree. 88th percentile career composite despite only 24 career games — the injury history bit into the sample. Peak-season composite at 7.00. Career sack and pressure rates are elite per-game, not just per-season.
Elite get-off, violent hands, bend that shouldn't exist at 275 pounds. ACC Defensive ROY as a freshman. 24 career TFLs.
StickToTheModel EDGE2 at #5 overall.
Arm-length talk is the discourse nobody asked for. He wins on tempo and get-off the way Freeney did. Top-5 pick who will turn into an immediate 10-sack producer.
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3. Keldric Faulk — Auburn — 6'6", 285This is where the analytics start pushing past the board.
Consensus EDGE4 at #19. Range: PFN 13, Tice 12, CBS 34. Enough scouts see a top-15 player. Enough don't to keep him out of the top of the first.
Our model has him EDGE3 at #12 overall. 80th percentile career composite. Broke out at 18.5 — one of the youngest breakout ages at the position. Size score near the top of the class. Three seasons of data, 10 sacks, 19.5 TFL in the SEC.
The production isn't top-5 in this edge class. The physical profile combined with the age-adjusted production is.
StickToTheModel EDGE3. Mid-first grade.
The bet is on trajectory. 21-year-old edge at 6'6" with this much production in the SEC is a rare bucket — those guys have hit at a much higher rate than consensus gives them credit for.
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4. Zion Young — Missouri — 6'5", 262Analytics favorite the board hasn't caught.
Consensus EDGE8 at #39. Range from 21 (TDN) to 86 (PFN). The industry is not in agreement on him — usually where our model finds edges.
Our analytics have him EDGE4 outright. 82nd percentile career composite — one of the highest pure numbers in the class. Peak-season score 0.86. Four seasons at Missouri, 11.5 sacks, 37.5 pressures, progression score near the top. Got better every year.
Clean frame. Breakout age 21 is average for the position, not a flag.
StickToTheModel EDGE4 at #27 overall.
The tape scouts are less bullish than the numbers. That's the disagreement that makes this pick. If you grade on four years of SEC production with a clean age curve, you're taking him late first or early second and feeling great about it.
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5. TJ Parker — Clemson — 6'3", 265Production file stacks up.
Consensus EDGE6 at #34. Thor has him 19. CBS 50. The tape-heavy analysts are warmer than the numbers-heavy ones. Usually it's the other way around.
Our analytics have him 5th at the position. 78th percentile career composite. 21.5 sacks and 38.5 pressures in 37 games — top-tier ACC production. Peak-season composite at 7.87, higher than Faulk, Jacas, Howell, or Mesidor. Broke out at 18.5.
Clean size. No medical concerns in the public record.
StickToTheModel EDGE5 at #30.
The bet is on a guy who already produces at a high level and has the age profile we want. The knock is translation — Clemson's defensive system creates clean rushes. You're betting he's still this productive when a pro OL meets him. Model likes that bet enough to put him top-5 at the position.
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6. Gabe Jacas — Illinois — 6'3", 275Sack totals don't lie.
Consensus EDGE11 at #50. Range: Reid 31, PFN did not rank, Thor 69. Widely rated as a day-two guy, a few outliers higher.
Our analytics love the production. 81st percentile career composite. 26 sacks and 51 pressures over 48 games — that's a top-5 production profile in the class, not a top-10. Peak-season composite 7.74. Broke out at 19.8, four seasons of data, progression score top tier.
Size score clean.
StickToTheModel EDGE6 at #37.
Classic model call. Quiet Big Ten production that didn't come with viral tape. The archetype hits at a decent rate in round 2 — guys who produced a lot in college without elite traits tend to produce a little in the NFL because the work ethic and technique are already built in. Round-2 pick with a ceiling.
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7. Akheem Mesidor — Miami (FL) — 6'3", 280Board has him higher than we do.
Consensus EDGE5 at #32. Tight range in the 20s-30s from most analysts, with one outlier at PFN (97). Scouts like the tape and the production.
Our model holds back. 75th percentile career composite — not bad, but the age-adjustment hurts. Five college seasons, 34.5 career sacks, 49.5 pressures — huge raw numbers that get discounted because he broke out at 24. The peak-season composite is great (7.10). The breakout curve isn't.
Clean frame.
StickToTheModel EDGE7 at #31.
The player is real. The translation risk is age. 25-year-old rookies have a smaller development runway than 22-year-old rookies with the same college production. Consensus isn't wrong to rate him where they do. We just think the draft premium shouldn't be there given the age discount.
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8. Cashius Howell — Texas A&M — 6'2", 248Tape description: bone-smashing hammer.
Consensus EDGE7 at #36. Range: TDN 15 at the high end, Tice 59 at the low end — the biggest spread of any edge in our top 10.
Our analytics hold him in the middle. 77th percentile career composite. 28 career sacks in 48 games is elite production. Peak-season composite 7.22. Problem: broke out at 21.9 — older than every edge above him except Mesidor.
Undersized by the prototype. He wins with pad level and violence.
StickToTheModel EDGE8 at #34.
Perfect fit in a scheme that lets him attack gaps rather than anchor edges. Wrong fit in a system asking him to two-gap or drop in coverage. This is a pick you make for your defensive coordinator, not for your big board.
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9. Dani Dennis-Sutton — Penn State — 6'5", 265Analytics EDGE2. Consensus buried him.
Consensus EDGE15 at #73. Range: Thor 50, PFN 148. That's the widest split in our top 10 at the position.
Our model has him with the 2nd-highest career composite in the edge class. 83rd percentile. Four seasons at Penn State, 22.5 sacks, 44.5 pressures. Peak-season composite 7.70. Progression score 0.92 — got better every year.
Prototype size.
StickToTheModel EDGE9 at #36.
The gap between how the model sees him and how the board does is the biggest at the position. Something about the tape isn't translating for scouts. If the model's right, this is a round-2 pick that produces like a round-1 pick. If the scouts are right, something's off that the numbers don't capture.
This is the STTM-vs-consensus fight of the class at edge.
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10. Arvell Reese — Ohio State — 6'4", 243Consensus #1 overall. Our model's fade.
Consensus EDGE1 at #1 overall. Range: PFN 1, CBS 3, PFF 2 — tight, board-wide lock as a top-5 pick.
Our analytics don't see it yet. 68th percentile career composite. 24 career games (injury-shortened sample). 7 sacks, 13.5 TFL, 14 pressures. Peak-season composite 6.15. Breakout age flag.
6'4", 243. Size score 0.45.
StickToTheModel EDGE10 at #45 overall.
Tape-and-traits prospect. Consensus is drafting upside and the Ohio State system. Our numbers want more sample before we crown him. The blend lands him at the back of our EDGE top 10 — still a top-45 grade, just nowhere near the top of the board until the production catches up.
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Ranks 11–20
11. R Mason Thomas — Oklahoma — 6'2", 249StickToTheModel #53 overall
12. Nadame Tucker — Western Michigan — 6'3", 250StickToTheModel #54 overall
13. Kaleb Elarms-Orr — TCUStickToTheModel #65 overall
14. Malachi Lawrence — UCF — 6'4", 250StickToTheModel #76 overall
15. Derrick Moore — Michigan — 6'3", 260StickToTheModel #92 overall
16. Romello Height — Texas Tech — 6'3", 235StickToTheModel #108 overall
17. Keyron Crawford — Auburn — 6'4", 255StickToTheModel #115 overall
19. Caden Curry — Ohio State — 6'3", 260StickToTheModel #121 overall
20. Trey Moore — TexasStickToTheModel #134 overall