2026 NFL Draft Quarterback Rankings: StickToTheModel Top 10
QB — Top 10
One clear QB1. Then chaos.
Mendoza is the rare prospect where the tape, the numbers, and the age curve all point to the same place. After him, the class splits into two arguments — traits guys (Simpson, Allar) with limited production samples versus production guys (Beck, Nussmeier, Pavia) with age or scheme questions.
Our model weights the production side harder in this specific class. That's how Carson Beck ends up as our QB2 at #82 overall despite being a consensus QB5.
Every rank below is the StickToTheModel rank — our blend of the consensus big board and our career analytics (composite, peak-season score, breakout age, size).
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1. Fernando Mendoza — Indiana — 6'5", 225StickToTheModel QB1 at #1 overall.
Consensus has him QB1 at #2. Range: CBS 1, PFN 7 — 6-spot spread. That's the tightest agreement at any position in the top 10. Brugler, ESPN, and PFN all lined up.
Our analytics match. 100th percentile career composite in our QB pool. Peak-season score 0.88. 91.6 PFF grade on nearly 1,000 snaps. 7,952 career yards, 62 TDs against 14 INTs. Broke out at 20.5. Progression score near 1.0 — got better every year.
6'5", 225. Size score 0.85.
StickToTheModel QB1.
Consensus QB1 and our QB1 at the position where those two ranks being aligned matters most. If a QB-needy team at the top of round 1 passes, that's a board error. Top-3 lock.
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2. Carson Beck — Miami (FL) — 6'4", 220Biggest model-to-board disagreement in the class.
Consensus QB5 at #132 overall. Range: Tek 112, CBS 198 — an 86-spot spread. The 2024 interception tape is doing a lot of work on this ranking.
Our analytics see past it. QB2 at the position. 97th percentile career composite — higher than Simpson, Allar, everyone behind Mendoza. Peak-season score 0.91 — the highest in the QB class. 11,592 career yards, 75 TDs, 49 career games.
Poor progression score (0.09) from the senior year. The 4-year body of work is there.
StickToTheModel QB2 at #82.
Round-3 grade on the board. Analytics say he's closer to round-2. The transfer to Miami and the injury recovery add variance. If you weight 4-year production over one bad year, you get him in round 3 and feel great about it.
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3. Ty Simpson — Alabama — 6'2", 208Unique calm and intelligence. Lacks elite traits.
Consensus QB2 at #35. Range: CBS 11, Thor 60 — 49-spot spread. Board likes the floor, doesn't love the ceiling.
Our analytics hold back. QB11 in the pool. 68th percentile career composite. Only 24 career games of college experience. Peak-season score 0.84 is solid, but the sample is tiny.
6'2", 208 — size score 0.32. The frame and the trait gap are the same concern.
StickToTheModel QB3 at #52.
Student of the game. Knows what to do. Doesn't have the X-factor to do it. That profile drafts in round 2 and wins with the right offensive coordinator. Hard to build around in a bad situation. Fit-dependent pick.
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4. Drew Allar — Penn State — 6'5", 235Traits you draft on.
Consensus QB4 at #131. Range: Tek 88, PFN 178 — 90-spot spread. The board is split between "Josh Allen body" and "Penn State offense didn't ask him to do enough."
Our analytics are middle-of-the-road. 81st percentile career composite. Peak score 0.76 — the lowest in our QB top 5. 43 career games, 6,756 yards, 50 TDs. Progression score 0.14 — flat arc.
6'5", 235. Size score 0.91 — prototype.
StickToTheModel QB4 at #127.
Round-3 developmental pick. The ceiling is the frame and the arm. The floor is a QB2 who looks the part without moving the needle. Draft him for year-three starting reps, not year-one.
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5. Cole Payton — North Dakota StateFCS wild card.
Consensus QB6 at #144. Range: CBS 93, PFF 248 — a 155-spot spread. Half the board has him as a priority free agent. Half has him as a late-round swing.
Our analytics can't fully grade — small-school QBs don't get the same career composite treatment in our pool. 95.9 PFF grade on 670 snaps tells you what tape analysts see.
StickToTheModel QB5 at #139.
Day-three pick with developmental ceiling. Jimmy G career path in the right room. Back-up career in the wrong one. Scout-call more than any other QB in this top 10.
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6. Garrett Nussmeier — LSU — 6'1", 205Production. No frame.
Consensus QB3 at #84. Range: Tice 40, PFN 146 — 106-spot spread. The disagreement here is big enough that two different scouting reports are in play.
Our analytics have him QB14. 58th percentile career composite. 5 seasons of college football. 7,587 career yards, 41 TDs against 18 INTs. Peak-season score 0.82. Progression score 0.97.
6'1", 205 — size score 0.19. That's the flag.
StickToTheModel QB6 at #111.
Experienced 5-year starter. Smaller frame. Draft age 24.1. Round-4 pick in a scheme that asks him to distribute, not create.
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7. Sawyer Robertson — Baylor — 6'4", 220Gunslinger profile.
Consensus QB9 at #206. Range: TDN 92, PFF 257 — 165-spot spread. The board isn't sure he's draftable.
Our analytics push him up. 87th percentile career composite. Peak score 0.85. 3 college seasons, 7,646 yards, 47 TDs against 21 INTs. Progression score 0.96.
6'4", 220 — clean size.
StickToTheModel QB7 at #188.
Late day-three pick with developmental upside. Big arm, sized right, picked things up late in college. Worth a UDFA signing at minimum. Worth a 7th-round pick for a team looking for the QB3 swing.
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8. Cade Klubnik — Clemson — 6'2", 210Four-year Clemson starter. Modest peak.
Consensus QB7 at #170. Range: CBS 132, MDD 171 — the board has settled on a mid-round grade.
Our analytics agree. 71st percentile career composite. Peak score 0.83. 47 career games, 9,836 yards, 65 TDs. Progression score 0.84.
6'2", 210. Size score 0.33 — small for the prototype.
StickToTheModel QB8 at #180.
Exactly the rank you'd expect. Experienced. Knows the position. Doesn't move the needle in any one direction. Round-5 pick for a team that needs a QB3 who can pick up an offense and not lose a game.
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9. Jalon Daniels — Kansas — 6'0", 220Age-adjusted bounce-back.
Consensus QB11 at #270. Range: PFF 240, CBS 285 — widely viewed as UDFA or late-round.
Our analytics boost. 74th percentile career composite. Peak 0.83. 5 seasons at Kansas (injuries), 8,622 yards, 58 TDs, 18 INTs. Broke out at 19.4. Progression score 0.99.
6'0", 220 — size score 0.30.
StickToTheModel QB9 at #235.
The health history is doing all the work on the draft slot. Pre-injury Daniels was a top-50 prospect. Post-injury Daniels is a late-round swing. The analytics remember the original version. Worth a 7th-round flyer.
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10. Diego Pavia — Vanderbilt — 6'0", 207You guys are sooo lucky he isn't over 6 feet.
Consensus QB13 at #276. Range: PFN 186, MDD 337 — 151-spot spread. The board sees the SEC upset wins and still docks him for frame.
Our analytics push up. 84th percentile career composite. Peak-season composite 0.87. 52 career games, 9,841 yards, 69 TDs. 92.2 PFF grade on 776 snaps. Broke out at 23.1 — age discount is real.
6'0", 207. Size score 0.17.
StickToTheModel QB10 at #263.
Older breakout + smaller frame + SEC production = scheme-dependent late-round pick. Right room gets him a QB2 career and a cult following. Wrong room and he's out of the league in two years.
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Ranks 11–20
11. Taylen Green — Arkansas — 6'6", 224StickToTheModel #226 overall
12. Joey Aguilar — Tennessee — 6'3", 225StickToTheModel #287 overall
13. Luke Altmyer — Illinois — 6'2", 205StickToTheModel #264 overall
14. Haynes King — Georgia Tech — 6'3", 215StickToTheModel #295 overall
15. Joe Fagnano — UConn — 6'4", 225StickToTheModel #323 overall
16. Behren Morton — Texas Tech — 6'2", 220StickToTheModel #298 overall
17. Athan Kaliakmanis — Rutgers — 6'3", 212StickToTheModel #341 overall
18. Miller Moss — Louisville — 6'2", 210StickToTheModel #356 overall
19. Jake Retzlaff — Tulane — 6'1", 205StickToTheModel #389 overall
20. Kaidon Salter — ColoradoStickToTheModel #417 overall