2026 NFL Draft Running Back Rankings: StickToTheModel Top 10
RB — Top 10
Love at #1, then a long tier of day-2 and day-3 backs.
Consensus and our model align at the top — Jeremiyah Love is a consensus RB1 and our RB1, clean. After that, our analytics pull up a handful of production backs (Coleman, Washington, Allen) that the board is mixed on. We also land close to consensus on the day-3 tier.
Class strength: middle of the road. Good depth from rounds 2-5. No second RB1 contender behind Love.
Every rank below is the StickToTheModel rank — our blend of the consensus big board and our career analytics (composite, peak-season score, breakout age, size).
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1. Jeremiyah Love — Notre Dame — 6'0", 214StickToTheModel RB1 at #2 overall.
Consensus RB1 at #3. Range: TDN 1, CBS 7 — 6-spot spread. Board and tape both at the top of the class.
Our analytics crown him too. 100th percentile career composite. Peak-season score 0.90. Broke out at 18.8 — the youngest RB breakout in our top 10. 41 career games, 3,371 total yards, 37 TDs. 1,566 yards and 19 TDs in his peak season. 93.1 PFF grade.
6'0", 214. Size score 0.66 — average for the position, not a flag.
StickToTheModel RB1.
Top-5 overall talent. The rare RB prospect where age, production, size, and tape all point the same direction. Draft him and build around him.
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2. Jonah Coleman — Washington — 5'9", 228Production stacks.
Consensus RB4 at #95. Range: PFN 56, CBS 125 — 69-spot spread. Board's mixed on the frame and the position tier.
Our analytics are not. RB2 at the position. 98th percentile career composite. Peak score 0.89. 4 seasons at Washington, 3,903 career yards (3,103 rushing), 34 TDs, 79 career catches. Broke out at 19.6. Progression score 0.85.
5'9", 228. Compact build — size score 0.66.
StickToTheModel RB2 at #72.
Round-3 grade on the board. Round-2 grade in our analytics. Four-year production with receiving on top. The frame is why he isn't round-1 — it's also why he's our RB2 and not RB3 or RB4. Compact backs with this much production history hit more often than the board gives them credit for.
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3. Mike Washington Jr — Arkansas — 6'2", 2234.33 speed. Big-play ability.
Consensus RB3 at #82. Range: TDN 32, CBS 181 — 149-spot spread. The industry is all over the place.
Our analytics love the flashes. 90th percentile career composite. Peak-season score 0.81. Only 7 games of college data because of the transfer — 792 yards, 6 TDs, 113 yards per game in limited looks. Size score 0.88.
Sample size is the full conversation.
StickToTheModel RB3 at #80.
Round-3 pick on traits and big-play production. Round-2 pick if the combine backs up the 4.33 rumor. The discount is the 7-game sample. The bet is on the per-game output and the frame.
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4. Kaytron Allen — Penn State — 5'11", 217Four years of Big Ten rushing.
Consensus RB6 at #136. Range: PFN 108, PFF 159 — 51-spot spread. Board has him in a tight day-three tier.
Our analytics push up. 96th percentile career composite. Peak score 0.85. 52 career games at Penn State, 4,338 yards (3,909 rushing), 33 TDs, 58 catches. Progression score 0.91. 89.5 PFF grade.
5'11", 217. Size score 0.66.
StickToTheModel RB4 at #113.
Volume production. Clean age curve. Solid measurables. The floor is a rotational power back. The ceiling is a 1,000-yard workload starter if he lands on a team with a lead-blocker scheme. Round-3 value.
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5. Emmett Johnson — Nebraska — 5'11", 200Workload back with receiving chops.
Consensus RB5 at #113. Range: TDN 69, CBS 161 — 92-spot spread.
Our analytics land close. 73rd percentile career composite. Peak score 0.82. 32 games at Nebraska, 2,923 yards total (2,444 rushing), 16 TDs, 72 receptions. Progression score 1.0. Best-season YPG: 136.5.
5'11", 200 — size score 0.34.
StickToTheModel RB5 at #107.
Receiving-back profile. Fits a zone scheme and a three-down role. The frame caps the ceiling in short-yardage. Round-4 pick that can play year one in the right rotation.
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6. Demond Claiborne — Wake Forest — 5'10", 195Productive. Small. Classic day-3 split.
Consensus RB7 at #141. Range: PFN 121, PFF 171 — 50-spot spread.
Our analytics pump the brakes. 69th percentile career composite. Peak score 0.77. 37 career games, 2,985 total yards, 25 TDs.
5'10", 195 — size score 0.21. That's the flag.
StickToTheModel RB6 at #140.
Day-three pick with a pass-catching niche. 37 career games, 25 TDs, and 80 yards per game is real college production — but the size score (0.21) is the lowest in our RB top 10 and the peak-season composite only cracks the 69th percentile. Not the runner. The catcher. Round-5 fit in a zone-heavy scheme that needs a third-down back.
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7. Seth McGowan — Kentucky — 6'1", 215Older prospect. Real production.
Consensus RB9 at #167. Range: PFF 127, CBS 183 — 56-spot spread.
Our analytics land around the middle. 77th percentile career composite. Peak score 0.81. 29 games of college data, 2,396 total yards, 21 TDs. 46 receptions. Progression score 0.09 — flat arc across his seasons.
6'1", 215. Size score 0.72.
StickToTheModel RB7 at #152.
Draft age 24.4 is the flag. Size is the positive. Three-down back profile. Round-5 pick that adds immediate depth.
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8. Nick Singleton — Penn StateConsensus and model in the same spot.
Consensus RB8 at #155. Range: ESPN 121, CBS 197 — 76-spot spread. The board has him circled as mid-day-3.
Our analytics place him RB18. 67th percentile career composite — the lowest in our RB top 10.
StickToTheModel RB8 at #155.
Name recognition from the Penn State dual-back pairing with Allen. Analytics have Allen higher for a reason — the per-snap production isn't there. Round-4 at the ceiling, round-5 at the floor.
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9. Le'Veon Moss — Texas A&M — 5'11", 210Red-zone profile.
Consensus RB13 at #187. Range: ESPN 143, CBS 220 — 77-spot spread.
Our analytics lift him. 87th percentile career composite. Peak score 0.79. 31 career games, 1,985 yards (1,769 rushing), 20 rushing TDs. Short-area production.
5'11", 210 — size score 0.51.
StickToTheModel RB9 at #177.
Goal-line specialist profile. Not a feature back, not a scatback. The narrow role is the draft-slot conversation. Round-5 pick in a committee.
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10. Jaydn Ott — Oklahoma — 5'11", 208Former top-50 prospect who fell off.
Consensus RB12 at #184. Range: MDD 146, Tek 238 — 92-spot spread. The industry is still processing the regression.
Our analytics split. 81st percentile career composite on the career numbers (3,475 total yards, 27 TDs, 95 receptions). Broke out at 19.3. Peak score 0.80. Progression score 0.00 — the senior year cratered.
5'11", 208 — size score 0.49.
StickToTheModel RB10 at #179.
A 2023-version Jaydn Ott was a first-round pick. A 2025-version Jaydn Ott is a day-three pick. The discount is appropriate. The upside bet is that the 2023 version is still in there.
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Ranks 11–20
11. Jadarian Price — Notre Dame — 5'11", 209StickToTheModel #179 overall
12. Roman Hemby — Indiana — 6'0", 208StickToTheModel #199 overall
13. Eli Heidenreich — NavyStickToTheModel #201 overall
14. Kaelon Black — Indiana — 5'10", 210StickToTheModel #208 overall
15. J'Mari Taylor — Virginia — 5'9", 204StickToTheModel #211 overall
16. Desmond Reid — Pittsburgh — 5'8", 175StickToTheModel #239 overall
17. Noah Whittington — Oregon — 5'8", 203StickToTheModel #258 overall
18. CJ Donaldson — Ohio State — 6'2", 232StickToTheModel #266 overall
19. Robert Henry Jr — UTSA — 5'9", 205StickToTheModel #258 overall
20. Rahsul Faison — South CarolinaStickToTheModel #277 overall