2026 NFL Draft Wide Receiver Rankings: StickToTheModel Top 10
WR — Top 10
Best WR class the StickToTheModel rankings have seen in two years.
Five legitimate first-round grades. One guy our analytics have in the top 20 that consensus hasn't caught yet (Brazzell). A prime day-two tier where the board and the model start fighting.
Class strength: above average on raw production. Below average on proven elite-breakout profiles. Translation: a lot of WR2s, one real WR1 candidate, and a couple of swings our numbers like more than the room does.
Every rank below is the StickToTheModel rank — our blend of the consensus big board and our career analytics (composite, peak-season score, breakout age, size).
---
1. Jordyn Tyson — Arizona State — 6'2", 200StickToTheModel WR1. Not close.
Consensus has him WR3 at #14 overall with a soft range — Jeremiah 21, CBS 23, TDN 8. That spread tells you the analysts see the player. They're fighting over whether to trust the medical and the one-school sample.
The numbers don't fight. 91st percentile career composite in our all-time WR pool. 1,097 yards and 8 TDs last year in an Arizona State offense that was missing pieces around him. Broke out at 19.6. Peak-season score in the top tier at every filter we run.
StickToTheModel WR1 outright — our analytics and the consensus both put him at the top of the position.
Draft him to be WR1 from day one.
---
2. Carnell Tate — Ohio State — 6'3", 195Consensus WR1. Our WR2.
Brugler has him WR1. PFN has him WR4. CBS has him WR18. That spread isn't healthy for a guy being projected inside the top 10. The tape lovers see a technician. The skeptics see a guy who needed an OSU offense to hit these numbers.
The analytics like him. They don't crown him. 84th percentile career composite. Peak-season score top tier. Problem: broke out at 20.2 — older than every WR above him on our board.
StickToTheModel WR2. Not a reach at 10. Not a steal either.
Fit matters more here than most. Put him on a team with a downfield QB and a vertical scheme and he hits the PFN projection. Put him on a team asking him to separate on his own and you'll be disappointed.
---
3. Makai Lemon — USC — 5'11", 195The confidence is part of the tape.
Consensus WR2 at #12. Reasonable range — Brugler 13, PFN 8, TDN 27. The TDN grade is the outlier and it's the one number that tells you how he might go sideways: smaller frame, route tree he hasn't had to expand yet.
The analytics nod without sprinting to him. 81st percentile career composite. 1,091 yards last year at USC on 91 a game. Peak-season score top-20%. Breakout age at 20.8 is the flag — older than Tyson by a full year.
StickToTheModel WR3.
Slot-first NFL role. The comp nobody wants to say is Khalil Shakir — productive, technician, ceiling capped by physical limits. Teams taking him top-15 are reaching. Teams grabbing him late in round one are getting a pro.
---
4. Kevin Concepcion — Texas A&M — 5'11", 190Stefon Diggs profile, honestly.
Consensus WR4 at #21. CBS at 12, PFF at 35 — that spread is the story. The eval split is "slot tweener with production" vs. "first-round difference-maker."
Our model likes him a lot. 85th percentile career composite. Broke out at 18 — the youngest breakout in our top 10 by a mile. Three seasons of data with a consistent dominator share even as a 3rd option on the Texas A&M offense. 816 yards and 10 TDs last year.
StickToTheModel WR4.
The frame will scare teams off day one. It shouldn't. His age-adjusted production is better than every WR above him except Tyson. If you trust young breakouts — and you should — this is where the model tells you to get aggressive.
---
5. Denzel Boston — Washington — 6'4", 209Classic X-WR build.
Consensus WR5 at #24. Tight range — mid-20s from most analysts, one outlier (PFN at 31). The board agrees this is where he goes.
Model agrees. 84th percentile career composite. Size score clears the bar with room. 813 yards and 8 TDs last year on a Washington offense that was inconsistent at QB.
StickToTheModel WR5.
Not a burner. Not a slot. He's the guy you take at 22 when you already have a WR1 and need someone to win on the outside against press. Different player than everyone ahead of him on this list — the model doesn't penalize that because big-bodied Xs in this production range have hit at a decent rate.
Low-variance pick. Not the ceiling you draft for. The floor.
---
6. Chris Brazzell II — Tennessee — 6'5", 200This is where the model and the board part ways.
Consensus WR8 at #54. Brugler at 96. PFN at 35. Thor at 43. That's a 61-spot spread. The market's unsettled.
Our analytics have him WR3 at the position. 86th percentile career composite. Best size score in our top 10. Broke out at 19.4 with 981 yards on 82 a game at Tennessee. Peak-season score top tier. Progression score near the top of the position.
StickToTheModel WR6. Our analytics have him top-3 in the class — the heavier you weight production over consensus, the faster he climbs.
This is the guy the model is built to find. Big. Young. Productive at a high-level program. The board hasn't caught up yet. If you believe the numbers — and our track record says you should — he's a steal anywhere past pick 40.
---
7. Elijah Sarratt — Indiana — 6'2", 209Analytics WR2 in this class. Top 10 composite, period.
Consensus isn't close. WR12 at #74. Reid at 115. Tice at 68. The board has him as a late day-two prospect.
Our model sees what the board is missing. 88th percentile career composite. 1,141 yards as a sophomore. Back that up with 727 as a junior — yes, regression, but different offense, different QB play. 3 seasons of production across multiple programs. Broke out at 19.8.
StickToTheModel WR7. Our analytics have him WR2 outright.
This is the exact profile the model was built to surface — quietly productive kid whose tape isn't viral. Teams that grade on production hit on him in round 2. Teams that grade on tape pass in round 3 and wonder why he balled as a 4th WR in year one.
---
8. Chris Bell — Louisville — 6'2", 220Different kind of receiver.
Consensus WR9 at #58. PFN at 36. CBS at 102. A 66-spot spread that's basically what happens when a body type doesn't fit a scouting framework.
The model sees a solid tier-1 option. 79th percentile career composite. 917 yards on 83 a game last year. 4 seasons of data — a plus (durability, production consistency) and a minus (older breakout path).
StickToTheModel WR8.
Power-slot build with enough juice to play outside in the right scheme. Not the guy for a zone-heavy system. Absolutely the guy to bully safeties and move the sticks on 3rd-and-6.
Solid day-two pick. Overdrafting him early is the mistake.
---
9. Omar Cooper Jr — Indiana — 6'0", 201Board has him higher than we do. Fine.
Consensus WR6 at #26 overall. Jeremiah 18. PFN 68. Pick your scout. The fans of him point to steady production and Indiana targets. The skeptics point to catch-radius limits and a route tree that never expanded.
Our analytics have him well outside WR10 in the pool. 72nd percentile career composite — most of it from one senior season rather than a multi-year peak curve. 882 yards on 59 a game in an offense built around him.
StickToTheModel WR9. Consensus-heavy rank — the board sees more than our analytics do.
Real player. Real concern about what he is at the next level. Bet on the floor, not the ceiling.
---
10. Antonio Williams — Clemson — 5'11", 190Four years of data. One great season. That tells a story.
Consensus WR11 at #65. TDN at 44, PFN at 128 — bigger spread than Brazzell, and that's saying something.
Model has him in the back half of the top 10 for a reason. 79th percentile career composite, but the progression curve is ugly: 537 yards as a freshman, 884 as a junior, 510 as a senior. Peak is real. Consistency isn't.
StickToTheModel WR10.
Good player. Round 3 fit for a team that thinks they can build around 2024 Williams and ignore 2025 Williams. Round 4 pick for a team that thinks his ceiling is his 2024 and floor is a rotational WR5.
Classic "draft the right round, win" prospect. Overthink this one and you lose.
---
Ranks 11–20
11. Germie Bernard — Alabama — 6'1", 204StickToTheModel #61 overall
12. Malachi Fields — Notre Dame — 6'4", 223StickToTheModel #70 overall
13. Ted Hurst — Georgia State — 6'3", 185StickToTheModel #73 overall
14. Zachariah Branch — Georgia — 5'10", 180StickToTheModel #75 overall
15. Bryce Lance — North Dakota StateStickToTheModel #85 overall
16. Ja'Kobi Lane — USC — 6'4", 200StickToTheModel #88 overall
17. Skyler Bell — Connecticut — 6'0", 185StickToTheModel #100 overall
18. Eric McAlister — TCU — 6'3", 205StickToTheModel #138 overall
19. Josh Cameron — Baylor — 6'1", 224StickToTheModel #122 overall
20. Brenen Thompson — Mississippi StateStickToTheModel #105 overall