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Week 4 · Sunday Oct 4 · Final

CardinalsatGiants

FinalARI 24, NYG 36Giants by 12
SpreadARI -2.5Giants covered
Total44.5went over, 60 points
OpenedNYG -7moved 4.5 points by kickoff

The angles leaned Cardinals -2.5: it missed. The model's reads, Over 43.5: it won.

Where it turned: the run game. Expect the Giants to give up on the run early.Sunday: Giants ran for 87 yards on 28 carries.

The charts as they stand today.

Head to head

The longer bar is the better unit, and it takes its team's colour. A long coloured bar against a short grey one is where a side has the edge.

Cardinals with the ball

Cardinals offenseGiants defense
17th
Passing
15th
18th
Run game
17thi
8th
Pass rush
31st
12th
Third down
28thi
32nd
Big plays
3rd
8th
Turnovers
8th
20th
Red zone
27th

Giants with the ball

Giants offenseCardinals defense
19th
Passing
31st
21st
Run game
2nd
32nd
Pass rush
29th
17th
Third down
18th
30th
Big plays
32nd
16th
Turnovers
18th
22nd
Red zone
24th

Ranks run 1st (best) to 32nd, 2026 through week 3 as they stood at kickoff, close-game snaps. "Faced" is the average rank of the units across from them so far.

Team angles

Every past game that looked like this one, counted by the side it covered. More of them than luck would give point at Cardinals -2.5.

Cardinals -2.5somemissed
804 past angles back this side; luck alone would give about 384.
2.1xluck's count
Over 44.5could be luckhit, 60 points
1,197 past angles back this side; luck alone would give about 964.
1.2xluck's count
The strongest angles behind each side, in plain words

Behind Cardinals -2.5

Opponent has 1 loss or fewer, but their team is 20 points healthier. 163-100

It's week 4 or earlier in the season, and they're way healthier than the opponent. 160-100

It's weeks 1 through 4, and they're way healthier than the opponent. 160-100

Behind Over 44.5

4 games or fewer this season and opponent missed the spread by 16.5 or more two games ago. 70-37

Player angles

No player line on this game was archived with a read.

Model plays

Graded: the official card went 1-0; picks on test went 2-1.

Over 44.5official, 2uwon +1.82u
Angle card, 4 reasons (59.4% in the 2020-2025 replay). Stamped Wed 9:08 PM ET.
Malachi Fields under 1.5 catches (+140)on test, no stakelost, 2 catches
ARI allow 1.15x league yards a target to 6'3"+ receivers, 0.97x their number on short ones. Stamped Fri 8:20 AM ET.
Theo Johnson over 8.5 receiving yards (-110.0)on test, no stakewon, 11 receiving yards
Stamped Sat 12:24 PM ET.
Elijah Higgins over 4.5 receiving yards (-115.0)on test, no stakewon, 19 receiving yards
Stamped Sat 12:24 PM ET.