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Week 4 · Sunday Oct 4 · Final

ChargersatSeahawks

FinalLAC 23, SEA 30Seahawks by 7
SpreadSEA -7a push
Total42.5went over, 53 points
OpenedSEA -3moved 4 points by kickoff

The angles leaned Chargers +7 and Over 42.5: 1 of 2 hit. The model's reads, Over 42.5: it won.

Where it turned: the run game. Expect the Chargers to give up on the run early.Sunday: Chargers ran for 147 yards on 32 carries.

The charts as they stand today.

Head to head

The longer bar is the better unit, and it takes its team's colour. A long coloured bar against a short grey one is where a side has the edge.

Chargers with the ball

Chargers offenseSeahawks defense
26th
Passing
10th
29th
Run game
1st
29th
Pass rush
4th
18th
Third down
5thi
16th
Big plays
1st
30th
Turnovers
2nd
19th
Red zone
18th

Seahawks with the ball

Seahawks offenseChargers defense
8th
Passing
23rd
32nd
Run game
10th
21st
Pass rush
5th
31st
Third down
17th
8th
Big plays
21st
20th
Turnovers
7th
18th
Red zone
13th

Ranks run 1st (best) to 32nd, 2026 through week 3 as they stood at kickoff, close-game snaps. "Faced" is the average rank of the units across from them so far.

Team angles

Every past game that looked like this one, counted by the side it covered. More of them than luck would give point at Chargers +7 and Over 42.5.

Chargers +7strongpush
3,003 past angles back this side; luck alone would give about 759.
4.0xluck's count
Over 42.5stronghit, 53 points
4,199 past angles back this side; luck alone would give about 1,319.
3.2xluck's count
The strongest angles behind each side, in plain words

Behind Chargers +7

They've missed the spread by 9+ points per game and the opponent scored 22+ last game. 146-85

Behind Over 42.5

This ref has worked 8 games or fewer, and the opponent has missed the spread their last game or more. 73-35

4 games or fewer this season and opponent missed the spread by 16.5 or more two games ago. 70-37

This ref has worked 8 games or fewer, and the opponent covers the spread 40% of the time or less. 60-28

Player angles

No player line on this game was archived with a read.

Model plays

Graded: picks on test went 4-0.

LAC +7official, 2upush +0u
Angle card, 5 reasons (59.4% in the 2020-2025 replay). Stamped Wed 9:08 PM ET.
AJ Barner under 3.5 catches (-180)on test, no stakewon, 1 catches
Under 3.5 in 27 of 34 games. Stamped Fri 8:20 AM ET.
Sam Darnold under 232.5 passing yards (-115)on test, no stakewon, 168 passing yards
Under 232.5 in 7 of 10 at home outdoors. Stamped Fri 8:20 AM ET.
Over 42.5on test, no stakewon +0u
All-angles evidence +5.8 past luck. Stamped Fri 12:23 PM ET.
5 more plays
George Holani under 7.5 receiving yards (-110)on test, no stakewon, 2 receiving yards
Under 7.5 in 7 of 9 games. Stamped Sat 8:23 AM ET.
Quentin Johnston anytime TDwithdrawn
Pulled Oct 2 when it stopped qualifying.
Tre' Harris anytime TDwithdrawn
Pulled Oct 2 when it stopped qualifying.
George Holani anytime TDwithdrawn
Pulled Oct 3 when it stopped qualifying.
Emanuel Wilson anytime TDwithdrawn
Pulled Oct 3 when it stopped qualifying.