The longer bar is the better unit, and it takes its team's colour. A long coloured bar against a short grey one is where a side has the edge.
Chiefs with the ball
Chiefs offenseRaiders defense
4th
Passing
20th
1st
Run game
7th
2nd
Pass rush
3rd
10th
Third down
21st
4th
Big plays
8th
11th
Turnovers
4th
17th
Red zone
27th
Raiders with the ball
Raiders offenseChiefs defense
6th
Passing
14th
19th
Run game
18th
22nd
Pass rush
30th
4th
Third down
20th
18th
Big plays
13th
21st
Turnovers
12th
16th
Red zone
12th
Ranks run 1st (best) to 32nd, 2026 through week 3 as they stood at kickoff, close-game snaps. "Faced" is the average rank of the units across from them so far.
Team totals
Chiefs scored 30 against a team total of 26: over. the spread and total, split.
Raiders scored 27 against a team total of 21.5: over. the spread and total, split.
Team trends
Each team's own record in a spot like this one, against its record everywhere else. A reason to lean, not a bet.
Raiders have gone over 7 of 9 at home in a division gamehit, 57 points
17 of 45 everywhere else, 2023-2026, new coach and QB in 2026 · points to Over 47.5
7 of 9in this spot
Raiders have covered 3 of the last 4 meetings
Last time, 2025 week 18: Chiefs 12, Raiders 14, Raiders covered.
3-1against the spread
Team angles
Every past game that looked like this one, counted by the side it covered. More of them than luck would give point at Over 47.5.
Over 47.5stronghit, 57 points
2,645 past angles back this side; luck alone would give about 1,253.
2.1xluck's count
Chiefs -4.5could be luckmissed
1,081 past angles back this side; luck alone would give about 791.
1.4xluck's count
The strongest angles behind each side, in plain words
Behind Over 47.5
The opponent's D favors tall receivers by 24%+ and covers 60%+ of games this season. 43-19
The opponent allowed 12 or fewer last game and they're traveling 2+ time zones west. 60-32
This ref has worked 106 games or fewer, and the opponent's defense struggles 24% more against tall receivers. 47-23
Behind Chiefs -4.5
Their defense is 14% worse against tall receivers, and the opponent is winning by about 10 points a game. 57-29
Player trends
Each player's own record in a spot like this one, his best stat first.
Brock BowersTEhit, 1 rec TD
Brock Bowers has 6 of his last 9 games indoors as an underdog with a receiving touchdown. 4 of 15 everywhere else, 2024-2026.
6 of 9last 9
Kenneth Walker IIIRBhit, 177 rush yds
Kenneth Walker III has 7 of his last 9 games as a favorite with 50+ rushing yards. 14 of 28 everywhere else, 2025-2026.
7 of 9last 9
Ashton JeantyRBhit, 58 rush yds
Ashton Jeanty has 6 of his last 9 games at home with 50+ rushing yards. 5 of 10 everywhere else, 2025-2026.
6 of 9last 9
Player angles
No player line on this game was archived with a read.
Model plays
Graded: Watching went 2-2.
Ashton Jeanty under 60.5 rushing yards (-110)Watching, not a betwon, 58 rushing yards
Under 60.5 in 6 of 7 in division games. Stamped Fri 8:20 AM ET.
Over 47.5Watching, not a betwon +0u
All-angles evidence +3.8 past luck. Stamped Fri 12:23 PM ET.
Brock Bowers under 73.5 receiving yards (-115)Watching, not a betlost, 86 receiving yards
Under 73.5 in 7 of 7 in division games indoors. Stamped Fri 12:23 PM ET.
Cody White under 1.5 catches (-230)Watching, not a betlost, 2 catches
KC allow 0.92x league yards a target to 6'3"+ receivers, 1.30x their number on short ones. Stamped Sat 12:24 PM ET.
Where it turned: the passing game. Expect the Chiefs to attack through the air all day.Sunday: Chiefs threw for 225 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Raiders with the ball
