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Week 4 · Sunday Oct 4 · Final

CowboysatTexans

FinalDAL 34, HOU 30Cowboys by 4
SpreadHOU -3Cowboys covered
Total48.5went over, 64 points
OpenedHOU -2.5moved 0.5 points by kickoff

The angles leaned Texans -3 and Under 48.5: both missed.

Where it turned: the passing game. Expect the Cowboys to attack through the air all day.Sunday: Cowboys threw for 335 yards and 1 touchdown.

The charts as they stand today.

Head to head

The longer bar is the better unit, and it takes its team's colour. A long coloured bar against a short grey one is where a side has the edge.

Cowboys with the ball

Cowboys offenseTexans defense
9th
Passing
28th
16th
Run game
8th
19th
Pass rush
17th
4th
Third down
14th
31st
Big plays
29th
12th
Turnovers
26th
8th
Red zone
8th

Texans with the ball

Texans offenseCowboys defense
21st
Passing
30th
27th
Run game
22nd
18th
Pass rush
23rd
23rdi
Third down
31st
21st
Big plays
28th
1st
Turnovers
27th
22ndi
Red zone
22nd

Ranks run 1st (best) to 32nd, 2026 through week 3 as they stood at kickoff, close-game snaps. "Faced" is the average rank of the units across from them so far.

Team angles

Every past game that looked like this one, counted by the side it covered. More of them than luck would give point at Texans -3 and Under 48.5.

Texans -3strongmissed
1,328 past angles back this side; luck alone would give about 420.
3.2xluck's count
Under 48.5somemissed, 64 points
2,237 past angles back this side; luck alone would give about 1,553.
1.4xluck's count
The strongest angles behind each side, in plain words

Behind Texans -3

The total is 48 points or higher, and their team is missing the spread by about 6 points a game. 97-55

They've missed the spread by 6+ points per game and won by 7+ two games ago. 146-92

They've missed the spread by 6+ a game and the opponent's QB is in year 5+. 332-222

Behind Under 48.5

They're on a losing streak of 3+ games, and this ref calls overs 44% or less. 86-43

Their receivers are 2+ inches taller than the opponent's corners, who beat the spread 13+ two games ago. 138-84

Player angles

No player line on this game was archived with a read.

Model plays

Graded: the official card went 0-1; picks on test went 3-3.

HOU -3official, 1ulost -1u
Angle card, 2 reasons (53.2% in the 2020-2025 replay). Stamped Wed 9:08 PM ET.
Javonte Williams under 60.5 rushing yards (-110)on test, no stakelost, 62 rushing yards
Under 60.5 in 8 of 11 on the road as an underdog. Stamped Fri 8:20 AM ET.
David Montgomery over 10.5 receiving yards (-115)on test, no stakewon, 19 receiving yards
Over 10.5 in 23 of 34 games. Stamped Fri 8:20 AM ET.
Ryan Flournoy under 3.5 catches (-130)on test, no stakelost, 4 catches
Under 3.5 in 18 of 23 games. Stamped Fri 8:20 AM ET.
4 more plays
Nico Collins over 75.5 receiving yards (-115)on test, no stakewon, 118 receiving yards
Over 75.5 in 10 of 16 as a favorite. Stamped Fri 8:20 AM ET.
Jaylin Noel over 11.5 receiving yards (-120)on test, no stakewon, 85 receiving yards
Over 11.5 in 6 of 8 as a favorite. Stamped Fri 12:23 PM ET.
Foster Moreau over 7.5 receiving yards (-110.0)on test, no stakelost, 1 receiving yards
Stamped Sat 12:24 PM ET.
Tyler Goodson anytime TDwithdrawn
Pulled Oct 2 when it stopped qualifying.