The longer bar is the better unit, and it takes its team's colour. A long coloured bar against a short grey one is where a side has the edge.
Falcons with the ball
Falcons offenseSaints defense
31st
Passing
22nd
5th
Run game
25th
7th
Pass rush
10th
30th
Third down
24th
11th
Big plays
16th
32nd
Turnovers
27thi
4thi
Red zone
17th
Saints with the ball
Saints offenseFalcons defense
20th
Passing
11th
14thi
Run game
6th
9th
Pass rush
13thi
3rd
Third down
6th
23rd
Big plays
11th
23rd
Turnovers
27thi
5th
Red zone
8th
Ranks run 1st (best) to 32nd, 2026 through week 3 as they stood at kickoff, close-game snaps. "Faced" is the average rank of the units across from them so far.
Team trends
Each team's own record in a spot like this one, against its record everywhere else. A reason to lean, not a bet.
Falcons have covered 6 of 9 as an underdog in prime timecovered
15 of 45 everywhere else, 2023-2026, new coach and QB in 2026 · points to Falcons +1.5
6 of 9in this spot
Saints have covered 3 of the last 4 meetings
Last time, 2025 week 18: Saints 17, Falcons 19, Saints covered.
3-1against the spread
Team angles
Every past game that looked like this one, counted by the side it covered. Neither side gets more than luck would give: nothing to bet on here, and that is the finding.
Over 47.5could be luckhit, 69 points
1,486 past angles back this side; luck alone would give about 792.
1.9xluck's count
Falcons +1.5could be luckcovered
571 past angles back this side; luck alone would give about 404.
1.4xluck's count
The strongest angles behind each side, in plain words
Behind Over 47.5
This ref has worked 8 games or fewer, and the opponent covers the spread 40% of the time or less. 60-28
4 games or fewer this season and opponent missed the spread by 16.5 or more two games ago. 70-37
Player trends
Each player's own record in a spot like this one, his best stat first.
Chris OlaveWRhit, 116 rec yds
Chris Olave has 10 of his last 10 games indoors with 50+ receiving yards. 12 of 21 everywhere else, 2025-2026.
10 of 10last 10
Bijan RobinsonRBhit, 147 yds
Bijan Robinson has 9 of his last 10 games in division games with 100+ yards from scrimmage. 18 of 33 everywhere else, 2024-2025.
9 of 10last 10
Drake LondonWRhit, 96 rec yds
Drake London has 9 of his last 10 games in division games with 50+ receiving yards. 23 of 42 everywhere else, 2024-2026.
9 of 10last 10
3 more player trends
Tua TagovailoaQB
Tua Tagovailoa has 7 of his last 10 games in division games with 2+ passing touchdowns. 17 of 37 everywhere else, 2023-2025.
7 of 10last 10
Chris OlaveWRhit, 8 catches
Chris Olave has 9 of his last 10 games indoors with 6+ catches. 7 of 21 everywhere else, 2025-2026.
9 of 10last 10
Bijan RobinsonRBhit, 145 rush yds
Bijan Robinson has 5 of his last 6 games in prime time on the road with 75+ rushing yards. 21 of 45 everywhere else, 2024-2025.
5 of 6last 6
Player angles
No player line on this game was archived with a read.
Model plays
Graded: picks on test went 2-4.
Jahan Dotson under 18.5 receiving yards (-120)on test, no stakelost, 54 receiving yards
Under 18.5 in 6 of 6 in prime time on the road. Stamped Fri 12:23 PM ET.
Bijan Robinson under 4.5 catches (-115)on test, no stakewon, 1 catches
Under 4.5 in 8 of 9 in division games indoors. Stamped Fri 12:23 PM ET.
Alvin Kamara over 38.5 rushing yards (-110)on test, no stakelost, 23 rushing yards
Over 38.5 in 4 of 5 in division games as an underdog. Stamped Fri 12:23 PM ET.
Michael Penix Jr. under 224.5 passing yards (-115)on test, no stakewon, 223 passing yards
Under 224.5 in 6 of 8 on the road. Stamped Fri 12:23 PM ET.
2 more plays
Drake London under 78.5 receiving yards (-115)on test, no stakelost, 96 receiving yards
Under 78.5 in 21 of 32 games. Stamped Fri 12:23 PM ET.
Olamide Zaccheaus over 7.5 receiving yards (-115.0)on test, no stakelost, 0 receiving yards
Where it turned: the run game. Expect the Falcons to run it until the Saints prove they can stop it.Sunday: Falcons ran for 205 yards on 35 carries.
Saints with the ball
