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Week 4 · Sunday Oct 4 · Final

JetsatBears

FinalNYJ 12, CHI 23Bears by 11
SpreadCHI -3.5Bears covered
Total43.5stayed under, 35 points
OpenedCHI -8.5moved 5 points by kickoff

The angles leaned Bears -3.5 and Over 43.5: 1 of 2 hit. The model's reads, Over 43.5: it lost.

Where it turned: the run game. Expect the Bears to give up on the run early.Sunday: Bears ran for 232 yards on 54 carries.

The charts as they stand today.

Head to head

The longer bar is the better unit, and it takes its team's colour. A long coloured bar against a short grey one is where a side has the edge.

Jets with the ball

Jets offenseBears defense
10th
Passing
3rd
28th
Run game
31st
14th
Pass rush
21st
12th
Third down
4th
25th
Big plays
25thi
1st
Turnovers
9th
9thi
Red zone
22nd

Bears with the ball

Bears offenseJets defense
7th
Passing
13th
24th
Run game
9th
15th
Pass rush
24thi
15th
Third down
7th
10th
Big plays
6th
10th
Turnovers
27th
20th
Red zone
27th

Ranks run 1st (best) to 32nd, 2026 through week 3 as they stood at kickoff, close-game snaps. "Faced" is the average rank of the units across from them so far.

Team angles

Every past game that looked like this one, counted by the side it covered. More of them than luck would give point at Bears -3.5 and Over 43.5.

Bears -3.5somecovered
1,461 past angles back this side; luck alone would give about 557.
2.6xluck's count
Over 43.5somemissed, 35 points
1,435 past angles back this side; luck alone would give about 745.
1.9xluck's count
The strongest angles behind each side, in plain words

Behind Bears -3.5

The opponent covers 67%+ this season and is banged up worse, injury cost 19.5+ higher. 85-43

Behind Over 43.5

6 days rest or less and the opponent covers 70% of games this season. 86-44

They've come off 1 or fewer Monday-night games and the opponent covers 70%+ this season. 54-25

Player angles

No player line on this game was archived with a read.

Model plays

Graded: the official card went 1-0; picks on test went 0-1.

CHI -3.5official, 1uwon +0.91u
Angle card, 2 reasons (53.2% in the 2020-2025 replay). Stamped Wed 9:08 PM ET.
Garrett Wilson over 75.5 receiving yards (-115)on test, no stakelost, 27 receiving yards
Over 75.5 in 6 of 8 on the road as an underdog. Stamped Fri 12:23 PM ET.
Over 43.5withdrawn
Pulled Oct 2 when it stopped qualifying; it would have lost.
Kyle Monangai anytime TDwithdrawn
Pulled Oct 2 when it stopped qualifying.
2 more plays
D'Andre Swift under 2.5 catcheswithdrawn
Pulled Oct 3 when it stopped qualifying; it would have won.
Kyle Monangai over 38.5 rushing yardswithdrawn
Pulled Oct 3 when it stopped qualifying; it would have won.