The longer bar is the better unit, and it takes its team's colour. A long coloured bar against a short grey one is where a side has the edge.
Packers with the ball
Packers offenseBuccaneers defense
22nd
Passing
18th
31st
Run game
3rd
30th
Pass rush
24thi
32nd
Third down
8th
11th
Big plays
5thi
1sti
Turnovers
22nd
26th
Red zone
5th
Buccaneers with the ball
Buccaneers offensePackers defense
32nd
Passing
16th
13th
Run game
14th
27th
Pass rush
18thi
27th
Third down
29thi
26th
Big plays
9th
19th
Turnovers
13th
31st
Red zone
26thi
Ranks run 1st (best) to 32nd, 2026 through week 3 as they stood at kickoff, close-game snaps. "Faced" is the average rank of the units across from them so far.
Team trends
Each team's own record in a spot like this one, against its record everywhere else. A reason to lean, not a bet.
Buccaneers have gone under 5 of 7 with a total of 41 or under after a losshit, 31 points
21 of 47 everywhere else, 2023-2026, new QB in 2026 · points to Under 38.5
5 of 7in this spot
Buccaneers have gone under 5 of 7 outdoors with a total of 41 or underhit, 31 points
21 of 47 everywhere else, 2023-2026, new QB in 2026 · points to Under 38.5
5 of 7in this spot
Packers have gone under 7 of 9 after a loss with extra resthit, 31 points
17 of 44 everywhere else, 2023-2026, LaFleur and Love · points to Under 38.5
7 of 9in this spot
2 more team trends
Packers have gone under 8 of 11 on the road after a losshit, 31 points
16 of 42 everywhere else, 2023-2026, LaFleur and Love · points to Under 38.5
8 of 11in this spot
Buccaneers have covered 3 of the last 4 meetings
Last time, 2023 week 15: Buccaneers 34, Packers 20, Buccaneers covered.
3-1against the spread
Team angles
Every past game that looked like this one, counted by the side it covered. More of them than luck would give point at Packers -3.
Packers -3strongpush
1,200 past angles back this side; luck alone would give about 574.
2.1xluck's count
Under 38.5could be luckhit, 31 points
3,033 past angles back this side; luck alone would give about 2,740.
1.1xluck's count
The strongest angles behind each side, in plain words
Behind Packers -3
They've missed the spread by 9+ a game and their pass offense ranks in the top 4. 48-20
Margin two games ago was 7 or better and they've missed the spread by 9+ a game. 70-36
Behind Under 38.5
With 0.6+ inches of rain, the opponent's targeted receivers average 74 inches tall or shorter. 69-34
Player trends
Each player's own record in a spot like this one, his best stat first.
Josh JacobsRB
Josh Jacobs has 8 of his last 10 games as a favorite with a rushing touchdown. 7 of 22 everywhere else, 2025.
8 of 10last 10
Bucky IrvingRBhit, 61 rush yds
Bucky Irving has 9 of his last 10 games at home with 50+ rushing yards. 7 of 13 everywhere else, 2024-2026.
9 of 10last 10
Player angles
No player line on this game was archived with a read.
Model plays
Graded: the official card went 0-1; picks on test went 1-0.
Over 38.5official, 1ulost -1u
Angle card, 2 reasons (53.2% in the 2020-2025 replay). Stamped Wed 9:08 PM ET.
Jonnu Smith over 7.5 receiving yards (-115.0)on test, no stakewon, 19 receiving yards
Where it turned: the run game. Expect the Packers to give up on the run early.Sunday: Packers ran for 86 yards on 25 carries.
Packers with the ball
