New: Be a GM College lets you run your NIL budget, fight the portal, and play the season. Try it. →
FreeWhat's your angle? · type any trend and see its record in every NFL game since 1999Test an angle
Week 4 · Sunday Oct 4 · Final

PatriotsatBills

All week 4 games→Betting HQ→
FinalNE 29, BUF 26Patriots by 3
SpreadBUF -7Patriots covered
Total49.5went over, 55 points
OpenedBUF -3moved 4 points by kickoff

The angles leaned Over 49.5 and Patriots +7: both hit. The model's reads, Bills -7 and Under 49.5: both lost.

Where it turned: the passing game. Expect the Patriots to find nowhere to throw.Sunday: Patriots threw for 269 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Depth charts

The charts as they stand today.

New England depth chart→Buffalo depth chart→

Head to head

The longer bar is the better unit, and it takes its team's colour. A long coloured bar against a short grey one is where a side has the edge.

Patriots with the ball

Patriots offenseBills defense
27th
Passing
6th
23rd
Run game
26thi
16th
Pass rush
2nd
21st
Third down
13th
24th
Big plays
24th
31st
Turnovers
21st
32nd
Red zone
18th

Bills with the ball

Bills offensePatriots defense
3rd
Passing
2nd
8th
Run game
23rd
24th
Pass rush
8th
2nd
Third down
2nd
1st
Big plays
4th
24th
Turnovers
20th
5th
Red zone
14th

Ranks run 1st (best) to 32nd, 2026 through week 3 as they stood at kickoff, close-game snaps. "Faced" is the average rank of the units across from them so far.

Team angles

Every past game that looked like this one, counted by the side it covered. More of them than luck would give point at Over 49.5 and Patriots +7.

Over 49.5stronghit, 55 points
3,044 past angles back this side; luck alone would give about 996.
3.1xluck's count
Patriots +7somecovered
2,145 past angles back this side; luck alone would give about 915.
2.3xluck's count
The strongest angles behind each side, in plain words

Behind Over 49.5

This ref has worked 8 games or fewer, and the opponent has missed the spread their last game or more. 73-35

Behind Patriots +7

They lost by 25+ last game and the opponent outscores them by 11+ a game. 127-75

They scored 6 or fewer last game in a game with 41+ total points. 38-18

Player angles

No player line on this game was archived with a read.

Model plays

Graded: picks on test went 1-3.

Hunter Henry under 3.5 catches (-135)on test, no stakelost, 5 catches
Under 3.5 in 4 of 6 in division games on the road. Stamped Fri 8:20 AM ET.
Drake Maye under 230.5 passing yards (-115)on test, no stakelost, 269 passing yards
Under 230.5 in 6 of 8 in division games as an underdog. Stamped Fri 8:20 AM ET.
Rhamondre Stevenson under 18.5 receiving yards (-120)on test, no stakelost, 27 receiving yards
Under 18.5 in 22 of 32 games. Stamped Fri 8:20 AM ET.
Josh Allen under 31.5 rushing yards (-115)on test, no stakewon, 4 rushing yards
Under 31.5 in 17 of 28 outdoors. Stamped Fri 8:20 AM ET.
1 more plays
Over 48.5withdrawn
Pulled Oct 2 when it stopped qualifying; it would have won.
Build an angle on this game→All week 4 games→