The longer bar is the better unit, and it takes its team's colour. A long coloured bar against a short grey one is where a side has the edge.
Steelers with the ball
Steelers offenseBrowns defense
29th
Passing
7thi
17th
Run game
20th
23rd
Pass rush
16th
26th
Third down
12th
20th
Big plays
26th
9th
Turnovers
14th
29th
Red zone
8th
Browns with the ball
Browns offenseSteelers defense
16th
Passing
9th
30th
Run game
28th
20th
Pass rush
7th
25th
Third down
9th
28th
Big plays
31st
13th
Turnovers
6th
28th
Red zone
4thi
Ranks run 1st (best) to 32nd, 2026 through week 3 as they stood at kickoff, close-game snaps. "Faced" is the average rank of the units across from them so far.
Team trends
Each team's own record in a spot like this one, against its record everywhere else. A reason to lean, not a bet.
Browns have covered 7 of 9 at home in a division gamecovered
16 of 43 everywhere else, 2023-2026, new coach and QB in 2026 · points to Browns +2.5
7 of 9in this spot
Steelers have gone over 11 of 15 outdoors in prime timehit, 51 points
14 of 39 everywhere else, 2023-2026, new coach in 2026, new QB in 2025 · points to Over 38.5
11 of 15in this spot
Steelers have covered 14 of 19 in a division gamemissed
18 of 34 everywhere else, 2023-2026, new coach in 2026, new QB in 2025 · points to Steelers -2.5
14 of 19in this spot
1 more team trends
Steelers have covered 2 of the last 4 meetings
Last time, 2025 week 17: Steelers 6, Browns 13, Browns covered.
2-2against the spread
Team angles
Every past game that looked like this one, counted by the side it covered. Neither side gets more than luck would give: nothing to bet on here, and that is the finding.
Browns +2.5could be luckcovered
534 past angles back this side; luck alone would give about 398.
1.3xluck's count
Over 38.5could be luckhit, 51 points
508 past angles back this side; luck alone would give about 600.
0.8xluck's count
The strongest angles behind each side, in plain words
Behind Browns +2.5
6 days rest or less and no starters are out. 95-59
Behind Over 38.5
The total is 40.5 points or lower, and the opponent's QB is in his 11th season or later. 56-23
Player trends
Each player's own record in a spot like this one, his best stat first.
Michael PittmanWRmissed, 2 catches
Michael Pittman has 8 of his last 10 games on the road as a favorite with 6+ catches. 22 of 56 everywhere else, 2023-2025.
8 of 10last 10
Quinshon JudkinsRBhit, 53 rush yds
Quinshon Judkins has 5 of his last 6 games at home as an underdog with 50+ rushing yards. 4 of 11 everywhere else, 2025-2026.
5 of 6last 6
Jerry JeudyWRmissed, 36 rec yds
Jerry Jeudy has 7 of his last 10 games in prime time with 50+ receiving yards. 29 of 55 everywhere else, 2022-2024.
7 of 10last 10
1 more player trends
Michael PittmanWRmissed, 15 rec yds
Michael Pittman has 8 of his last 10 games on the road as a favorite with 50+ receiving yards. 26 of 56 everywhere else, 2023-2025.
8 of 10last 10
Player angles
No player line on this game was archived with a read.
Model plays
Graded: the official card went 0-1; picks on test went 1-0.
Under 38.5official, 1ulost -1u
Angle card, 2 reasons (53.2% in the 2020-2025 replay). Stamped Wed 9:08 PM ET.
Jerry Jeudy over 13.5 receiving yards (-120)on test, no stakewon, 36 receiving yards
Over 13.5 in 12 of 12 in division games. Stamped Wed 9:08 PM ET.
DK Metcalf under 3.5 catcheswithdrawn
Pulled Oct 1 when it stopped qualifying; it would have lost.
Roman Wilson under 22.5 receiving yardswithdrawn
Pulled Oct 1 when it stopped qualifying; it would have lost.
1 more plays
Deshaun Watson under 29.5 rushing yardswithdrawn
Pulled Oct 1 when it stopped qualifying; it would have won.
Where it turned: the passing game. Expect the Steelers to find nowhere to throw.Sunday: Steelers threw for 299 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Steelers with the ball
