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Week 4 · Sunday Oct 4 · Final

TitansatRavens

FinalTEN 18, BAL 24Ravens by 6
SpreadBAL -11.5Titans covered
Total42.5stayed under, 42 points
OpenedBAL -8.5moved 3 points by kickoff

The angles leaned Over 42.5 and Titans +11.5: 1 of 2 hit. The model's reads, Under 42.5: it won.

Where it turned: the passing game. Expect the Ravens to attack through the air all day.Sunday: Ravens threw for 285 yards and 2 touchdowns.

The charts as they stand today.

Head to head

The longer bar is the better unit, and it takes its team's colour. A long coloured bar against a short grey one is where a side has the edge.

Titans with the ball

Titans offenseRavens defense
30th
Passing
19th
9thi
Run game
21st
4th
Pass rush
19th
22nd
Third down
21st
22nd
Big plays
11thi
14th
Turnovers
25th
22nd
Red zone
18th

Ravens with the ball

Ravens offenseTitans defense
2nd
Passing
26th
12thi
Run game
15th
6th
Pass rush
20th
20th
Third down
27th
3rd
Big plays
7th
1sti
Turnovers
11th
9th
Red zone
11th

Ranks run 1st (best) to 32nd, 2026 through week 3 as they stood at kickoff, close-game snaps. "Faced" is the average rank of the units across from them so far.

Team angles

Every past game that looked like this one, counted by the side it covered. More of them than luck would give point at Over 42.5 and Titans +11.5.

Over 42.5strongmissed, 42 points
2,424 past angles back this side; luck alone would give about 647.
3.7xluck's count
Titans +11.5somecovered
1,059 past angles back this side; luck alone would give about 424.
2.5xluck's count
The strongest angles behind each side, in plain words

Behind Over 42.5

This ref has worked 8 games or fewer, and the opponent has missed the spread their last game or more. 73-35

This ref has worked 8 games or fewer, and the opponent covers the spread 40% of the time or less. 60-28

Behind Titans +11.5

They were at most a 2.5-point underdog last game and their win rate trails the opponent's by 60%+. 112-68

Margin two games ago was 7 or better and they're winless this season. 125-80

Player angles

No player line on this game was archived with a read.

Model plays

Graded: the official card went 0-1; picks on test went 1-0.

Over 42.5official, 2ulost -2u
Angle card, 3 reasons (59.4% in the 2020-2025 replay). Stamped Wed 9:08 PM ET.
Gunnar Helm under 17.5 receiving yards (-110)on test, no stakewon, 5 receiving yards
Under 17.5 in 5 of 8 on the road as an underdog. Stamped Fri 12:23 PM ET.