Week 4 Betting Card: Line Moves and Model Disagreements

Season: 2026 | Spreads are the home-team line from our daily log; "open" is the first observation we recorded. The model number is our walk-forward spread - where it disagrees with the market is information, not a pick.

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Where the Lines Moved

• ARI @ NYG (2026-10-04): NYG -7.0 on 2026-08-25 → NYG +2.5 now (9.5 points away from NYG).
• NYJ @ CHI (2026-10-04): CHI -8.5 on 2026-08-08 → CHI -3.5 now (5.0 points away from CHI).
• IND @ WAS (2026-10-04): WAS -1.5 on 2026-08-08 → WAS +3.5 now (5.0 points away from WAS).
• LAC @ SEA (2026-10-04): SEA -3.0 on 2026-08-25 → SEA -7.0 now (4.0 points toward SEA).
• NE @ BUF (2026-10-04): BUF -3.0 on 2026-08-25 → BUF -6.5 now (3.5 points toward BUF).
• TEN @ BAL (2026-10-04): BAL -8.5 on 2026-08-25 → BAL -11.5 now (3.0 points toward BAL).

Model vs Market

• LAR @ PHI: market says PHI +3.0, the model says PHI -3.2 - a 6.2-point gap in PHI's favor.
• NYJ @ CHI: market says CHI -3.5, the model says CHI -9.0 - a 5.5-point gap in CHI's favor.
• GB @ TB: market says TB +3.5, the model says TB -1.9 - a 5.4-point gap in TB's favor.
• ARI @ NYG: market says NYG +2.5, the model says NYG -1.5 - a 4.0-point gap in NYG's favor.
• DET @ CAR: market says CAR +3.5, the model says CAR +6.2 - a 2.7-point gap in DET's favor.

The Full Board

Every game, every angle, the model's number vs the market: Betting hub → · Angle finder →