Week 4 NFL Betting Card 2026: Line Moves and Model Edges
By StickToTheModel | Published: October 01, 2026 | 1 min read
Category: Betting Strategy
Week 4 Betting Card: Line Moves and Model Disagreements
Season: 2026 | Spreads are the home-team line from our daily log; "open" is the first observation we recorded. The model number is our walk-forward spread - where it disagrees with the market is information, not a pick.
---
Where the Lines Moved
ARI @ NYG (2026-10-04): NYG -7.0 on 2026-08-25 → NYG +2.5 now (9.5 points away from NYG).
NYJ @ CHI (2026-10-04): CHI -8.5 on 2026-08-08 → CHI -3.5 now (5.0 points away from CHI).
IND @ WAS (2026-10-04): WAS -1.5 on 2026-08-08 → WAS +3.5 now (5.0 points away from WAS).
LAC @ SEA (2026-10-04): SEA -3.0 on 2026-08-25 → SEA -7.0 now (4.0 points toward SEA).
NE @ BUF (2026-10-04): BUF -3.0 on 2026-08-25 → BUF -6.5 now (3.5 points toward BUF).
TEN @ BAL (2026-10-04): BAL -8.5 on 2026-08-25 → BAL -11.5 now (3.0 points toward BAL).
Model vs Market
LAR @ PHI: market says PHI +3.0, the model says PHI -3.2 - a 6.2-point gap in PHI's favor.
NYJ @ CHI: market says CHI -3.5, the model says CHI -9.0 - a 5.5-point gap in CHI's favor.
GB @ TB: market says TB +3.5, the model says TB -1.9 - a 5.4-point gap in TB's favor.
ARI @ NYG: market says NYG +2.5, the model says NYG -1.5 - a 4.0-point gap in NYG's favor.
DET @ CAR: market says CAR +3.5, the model says CAR +6.2 - a 2.7-point gap in DET's favor.