Whose HQ is this?
This weekvs BALSun 8:20 PM ET
MarketATL -3the posted spread
Our numberFree with an emailsee our number for this game
Against the spread2-2this season
Triggers6of our tested angles fire on this game; which ones, with the Pass
Your free account is on. You now see our number on every game, the game trends, bets and money, and ten Angle Finder searches a day. The picks are the Pass.
What the Pass adds→This week
15 games, 13 final and listed last. Tap one to open it.The matchup
Falcons ahead means Robinson carries it late; Ravens chasing means Huntley throws, and Flowers, Bateman and Andrews get the volume.
BAL has to
Find Andrews against man
ATL has to
Change the picture on Andrews
Where the game turns
- Ravens pass defense (12th) vs Falcons passing game (32nd). Expect the Falcons to find nowhere to throw. Gaps like this since 2015: won 67% of 313, covered 52%.
Player trend
Michael Penix Jr. QB ATL5 of 6over 218.5 passing yards, in prime time
The card · which 6 triggers fire
Get the Betting Pass · $5.41/wk ($119/season)Who's hurt
Cam JurgensOUTConcussion
Lamar JacksonOUTAnkle
Trey HendricksonOUTFinger
The matchup
Rams ahead means Williams carries it late; Bills chasing means Allen throws, and Moore, Shakir and Kincaid get the volume.
BUF has to
Find Kincaid against zone
LA has to
Throw on first and second down
Where the game turns
- Rams run game (6th) vs Bills run defense (24th). Expect the Rams to run it until the Bills prove they can stop it. Gaps like this since 2015: won 58% of 793, covered 50%.
Player trend
Josh Allen QB BUF8 of 10over 1.5 passing touchdowns, in prime time
The card · which 13 triggers fire
Get the Betting Pass · $5.41/wk ($119/season)Who's hurt
Ar'maj Reed-AdamsOUTCoach's Decision
Dorian StrongOUTNeck
Ed OliverOUTKnee
The matchup
One of the highest totals on the board
TB has to
Find Jr. against zone
DAL has to
Throw on first and second down
Where the game turns
- Buccaneers run game (3rd) vs Cowboys run defense (26th). Expect the Buccaneers to run it until the Cowboys prove they can stop it. Gaps like this since 2015: won 60% of 351, covered 47%.
Player trend
CeeDee Lamb WR DAL9 of 1075+ receiving yards, at home
Game trend
- Underdogs of 7 or more have covered 16 of 26 in week 5 after the road team lost62% vs 51%
The card Javonte Williams under 72.5 rushing yards · 0.25u · Small play · which 2 triggers fire
Who's hurt
Antoine Winfield Jr.OUTRibs
Baker MayfieldOUTThumb
Benjamin MorrisonOUTQuadriceps
The matchup
Jaguars ahead means Tuten carries it late and Lawrence throws less; Eagles chasing means Hurts throws, and Wicks, Lemon and Goedert get the volume.
PHI has to
Find Smith against zone
JAX has to
Run into light boxes
Where the game turns
- Jaguars pass defense (7th) vs Eagles passing game (24th). Expect the Eagles to find nowhere to throw. Gaps like this since 2015: won 60% of 787, covered 48%.
Player trend
Jalen Hurts QB PHI8 of 10over 0.5 passing touchdowns, outdoors
The card Parker Washington under 4.5 catches · 0.7u · C Grade · which 9 triggers fire
Who's hurt
DeVonta SmithOUTHamstring
Drew KendallOUTKnee
Hollywood BrownOUTAnkle
The matchup
Close on paper, so neither side is scripted to chase: Love and Bagent both throw, and the backs (Lloyd, Swift) carry it on whichever side gets ahead.
CHI has to
Find III against zone
GB has to
Give Love a clean pocket
Where the game turns
- Bears pass defense (1st) vs Packers passing game (15th). Expect the Packers to find nowhere to throw. Gaps like this since 2015: won 60% of 787, covered 48%.
Player trend
Tyson Bagent QB CHI8 of 8under 11.5 rush yds
Game trend
- Underdogs have covered 26 of 40 in week 5 in a division game65% vs 51%
The card GB +3 · 0.8u · C Grade · which 8 triggers fire
Who's hurt
Caleb WilliamsOUTHamstring
Jamree KromahOUTCoach's Decision
Jayden LovingOUTCoach's Decision
The matchup
Bengals ahead means Brown carries it late and Burrow throws less; Dolphins chasing means Willis throws, and Washington, Tolbert and Dulcich get the volume.
CIN has to
Take the easy throws
MIA has to
Tighten the windows
Where the game turns
- Bengals passing game (8th) vs Dolphins pass defense (29th). Expect the Bengals to attack through the air all day. Gaps like this since 2015: won 68% of 319, covered 47%.
Player trend
Joe Burrow QB CIN8 of 10over 254.5 passing yards, on the road
Game trend
- Road teams have covered 46 of 71 in week 5 after the home team lost65% vs 50%
The card none on this game · which 8 triggers fire
Who's hurt
Colbie YoungOUTKnee
Connor LewOUTCoach's Decision
Jack EndriesOUTCoach's Decision
The matchup
Close on paper, so neither side is scripted to chase: Smith and Watson both throw, and the backs (Allen, Judkins) carry it on whichever side gets ahead.
CLE has to
Find Jr. against man
NYJ has to
Load the box
Where the game turns
- Jets run defense (10th) vs Browns run game (29th). Expect the Browns to give up on the run early. Gaps like this since 2015: won 58% of 848, covered 52%.
Player trend
Harold Fannin Jr. TE CLE6 of 7over 35.5 receiving yards, on the road outdoors
Game trend
- Road teams have covered 46 of 71 in week 5 after the home team lost65% vs 50%
The card Deshaun Watson under 31.5 pass attempts · 0.25u · Small play · which 7 triggers fire
Who's hurt
Carsen RyanOUTCalf
Jeremiah Owusu-KoramoahOUTNeck
Mason GrahamOUTKnee
The matchup
Texans ahead means Montgomery carries it late; Titans chasing means Ward throws, and Tate, Robinson and Helm get the volume.
HOU has to
Find Boutte against zone
TEN has to
Change the picture on Boutte
Where the game turns
- Texans passing game (13th) vs Titans pass defense (30th). Expect the Texans to attack through the air all day. Gaps like this since 2015: won 61% of 799, covered 50%.
Player trend
Xavier Hutchinson WR HOU9 of 10over 15.5 receiving yards, as a favorite
Game trend
- Road teams have covered 46 of 71 in week 5 after the home team lost65% vs 50%
The card Nico Collins over 80.5 receiving yards · 1.5u · B Grade · which 14 triggers fire
Who's hurt
Aiden FisherOUTCoach's Decision
Chris BraswellOUTCoach's Decision
Collin WrightOUTCoach's Decision
The matchup
Steelers ahead means Warren carries it late; Colts chasing means Jones throws, and Downs, Allen and Warren get the volume.
IND has to
Change the picture on Metcalf
PIT has to
Throw on first and second down
Where the game turns
- Colts run game (2nd) vs Steelers run defense (28th). Expect the Colts to run it until the Steelers prove they can stop it. Gaps like this since 2015: won 60% of 351, covered 47%.
Player trend
Daniel Jones QB IND8 of 10over 8.5 rushing yards, outdoors as an underdog
Game trend
- Road teams have covered 46 of 71 in week 5 after the home team lost65% vs 50%
The card IND +2.5 · 3u · A Grade · which 9 triggers fire
Who's hurt
Ashton DulinOUTHamstring
Dalton TuckerOUTCoach's Decision
Darius SlaytonOUTKnee
The matchup
Patriots ahead means Stevenson carries it late; Raiders chasing means Cousins throws, and Tucker, Benson and Bowers get the volume.
LV has to
Go get the ball
NE has to
Give Maye a clean pocket
Where the game turns
- Raiders run defense (8th) vs Patriots run game (18th). Expect the Patriots to give up on the run early. Gaps like this since 2015: won 58% of 848, covered 52%.
Player trend
TreVeyon Henderson RB NE8 of 10over 46.5 rushing yards, as a favorite
The card TreVeyon Henderson over 50 rushing yards · 0.4u · C Grade · which 9 triggers fire
Who's hurt
Aidan O'ConnellOUTCoach's Decision
Dalton JohnsonOUTCoach's Decision
JJ PeguesOUTCoach's Decision
The matchup
Close on paper, so neither side is scripted to chase: Shough and Murray both throw, and the backs (Kamara, Jones) carry it on whichever side gets ahead.
MIN has to
Blitz them
NO has to
Find Vele against zone
Where the game turns
- Vikings run defense (5th) vs Saints run game (24th). Expect the Saints to give up on the run early. Gaps like this since 2015: won 58% of 848, covered 52%.
Player trend
Juwan Johnson TE NO8 of 10over 3.5 catches, at home
Game trend
- Road teams have covered 46 of 71 in week 5 after the home team lost65% vs 50%
The card Alvin Kamara under 32.5 rushing yards · 0.25u · Small play · which 10 triggers fire
Who's hurt
Charles DemmingsOUTHamstring
Christian DarrisawOUTConcussion
Elijah WilliamsOUTCoach's Decision
The matchup
Commanders ahead means Croskey-Merritt carries it late; Giants chasing means Winston throws, and Nabers, Fields and Likely get the volume.
NYG has to
Send it at Daniels
WAS has to
Keep Daniels clean
Where the game turns
- Giants pass defense (3rd) vs Commanders passing game (21st). Expect the Commanders to find nowhere to throw. Gaps like this since 2015: won 60% of 787, covered 48%.
Player trend
Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB WAS5 of 6a rushing touchdown, in division games outdoors
Game trend
- Road teams have covered 46 of 71 in week 5 after the home team lost65% vs 50%
The card Jayden Daniels over 28.5 rushing yards · 0.4u · C Grade · which 10 triggers fire
Who's hurt
Bobby Jamison-TravisOUTCoach's Decision
Devin SingletaryOUTCoach's Decision
J.C. DavisOUTCoach's Decision
The matchup
Broncos ahead means Dobbins carries it late; Chargers chasing means Herbert throws, and McConkey, Valdes-Scantling and Kolar get the volume.
DEN has to
Find Waddle against zone
LAC has to
Run into light boxes
Where the game turns
- Broncos pass defense (22nd) vs Chargers passing game (30th). Expect the Chargers to find nowhere to throw. Gaps like this since 2015: won 50% of 2504, covered 50%.
Player trend
Bo Nix QB DEN8 of 10over 14.5 rushing yards, on the road
Game trend
- Road teams have covered 46 of 71 in week 5 after the home team lost65% vs 50%
The card Keaton Mitchell under 32.5 rushing yards · 1u · C Grade · which 9 triggers fire
Who's hurt
Dallen BentleyOUTCoach's Decision
Jordan JacksonOUTCoach's Decision
Kage CaseyOUTCoach's Decision
The matchup
Lions ahead means Gibbs carries it late; Cardinals chasing means Brissett throws, and Wilson, Fehoko and McBride get the volume.
DET has to
Send it at Brissett
ARI has to
Take the easy throws
Where the game turns
- Lions passing game (10th) vs Cardinals pass defense (31st). Expect the Lions to attack through the air all day. Gaps like this since 2015: won 68% of 319, covered 47%.
Player trend
Jameson Williams WR DET8 of 10over 3.5 catches, as a favorite
Game trend
- Road teams have covered 46 of 71 in week 5 after the home team lost65% vs 50%
The card Sam LaPorta over 51.5 receiving yards · 2u · B Grade · which 6 triggers fire
Who's hurt
Ahmed HassaneinOUTCoach's Decision
Ben BartchOUTFoot
Bishop FitzgeraldOUTCoach's Decision
The matchup
Seahawks ahead means Wilson carries it late; 49ers chasing means Purdy throws, and Evans, Samuel and Kittle get the volume.
SF has to
Tighten the windows
Where the game turns
- 49ers red-zone offense (1st) vs Seahawks red-zone defense (26th). Expect the 49ers to finish drives with touchdowns, not field goals. Gaps like this since 2015: won 57% of 342, covered 54%.
Player trend
Christian McCaffrey RB SF9 of 10over 50.5 rushing yards, on the road
Game trend
- Underdogs have covered 26 of 40 in week 5 in a division game65% vs 51%
The card SF +3 · 2u · B Grade · which 9 triggers fire
Who's hurt
Brandon AiyukOUTPersonal
Enrique Cruz Jr.OUTCoach's Decision
James Thompson Jr.OUTAnkle
Whose line is it?
Track your leans with a free account: set your own spread on this week's games, see Vegas and our number next to yours, and get graded Tuesday morning.
How the bets have done
By kinds
| A, 4+ kinds agree | 2-0 | +1.8u |
| B, 3 kinds | 23-16 | +2.8u |
| C, 2 kinds | 76-51-1 | +12.7u |
| One kind, a read | 155-157-6 | -21.0u |
By proof
Nothing graded yet; the first week's bets fill this in on Tuesday.
1 of 1
Beat the close
100% of this season's priced bets got a better number than the game closed at.
If you bet with us all season
| A Grade · 80 and up | 9-2 | +6.6u |
| B Grade · 70 to 79 | 29-25-2 | +0.9u |
| C Grade · 60 to 69 | 97-70 | +16.5u |
| Under 60 | 121-127-5 | -27.7u |
A kind is one sort of evidence: history, the matchup, the script, the weather, the market or a rule. A is 4 or more different kinds agreeing, B is 3, C is 2; one kind alone is a read, not a grade. Weeks 2 to 5, 1 unit a bet at the price shown. 2021 to 2025, 60 and up: 143-123, +7.0u.
This week's official card
92 picks: 31 bets, 61 watching. Stamped Sun 7:11 PM ET.Bets
TBDALFinalJavonte Williams under 72.5 rushing yards (-115 at Bovada)Final, graded once the box score posts · Small play, 0.25u staked · no kind counted, a read · proof C, the early-week under rulePHIJAXFinalParker Washington under 4.5 catches (+100)BFinal, graded once the box score posts · C Grade, 0.7u staked · his history, the matchup, the script (3 kinds agree) · proof A, the spot receptions under rulePHIJAXFinalTrevor Lawrence under 229.5 passing yards (-112 at DraftKings/DraftKings)CFinal, graded once the box score posts · Small play, 0.5u staked · his history, the script (2 kinds agree) · proof C, the early-week under rulePHIJAXFinalOver 42.5BFinal, graded once the box score posts · Small play, 0.25u staked · the script, the weather, a rule (3 kinds agree) · proof B, the Tuesday total rulePHIJAXFinalJalen Hurts under 26.5 rushing yards (-113 at DraftKings/DraftKings)Final, graded once the box score posts · Small play, 0.25u staked · no kind counted, a read · proof C, the early-week under ruleINDPITFinalIND +2.5 (+103)AFinal, graded once the box score posts · A Grade, 3u staked · history, the script, the market, the grid (4 kinds agree) · no registered rule, a readHOUTENFinalNico Collins over 80.5 receiving yards (-115 at Bovada)Final, graded once the box score posts · B Grade, 1.5u staked · the matchup (one kind, a read) · proof C, the prop-board spot outside the registered markets ruleCHIGBFinalGB +3AFinal, graded once the box score posts · C Grade, 0.8u staked · the weather, the market, a rule, the grid (4 kinds agree) · proof C, the mined angle card ruleHOUTENFinalTony Pollard under 8.5 receiving yards (-115)CFinal, graded once the box score posts · C Grade, 0.5u staked · the matchup, the script (2 kinds agree) · no registered rule, a readLVNEFinalTreVeyon Henderson over 50 rushing yardsBFinal, graded once the box score posts · C Grade, 0.4u staked · his history, the matchup, the script (3 kinds agree) · no registered rule, a readLVNEFinalRhamondre Stevenson over 36.5 rushing yards (-115)CFinal, graded once the box score posts · C Grade, 0.4u staked · the matchup, the script (2 kinds agree) · no registered rule, a readNYGWASFinalJayden Daniels over 28.5 rushing yards (-115)CFinal, graded once the box score posts · C Grade, 0.4u staked · the matchup, the script (2 kinds agree) · proof C, the prop-board spot outside the registered markets ruleLVNEFinalBrock Bowers under 73.5 receiving yards (-115 at Bovada/Bovada)Final, graded once the box score posts · Small play, 0.25u staked · no kind counted, a read · proof C, the early-week under ruleLVNEFinalRomeo Doubs under 52.5 receiving yards (-115 at Bovada/Bovada)Final, graded once the box score posts · Small play, 0.25u staked · no kind counted, a read · proof C, the early-week under ruleCLENYJFinalDeshaun Watson under 31.5 pass attempts (-123 at DraftKings/DraftKings)Final, graded once the box score posts · Small play, 0.25u staked · no kind counted, a read · proof C, the early-week under ruleLVNEFinalDrake Maye under 31.5 rushing yards (-113 at DraftKings/DraftKings)CFinal, graded once the box score posts · Small play, 0.25u staked · his history, the script (2 kinds agree) · proof A, the spot rushing-yards under ruleMINNOFinalAlvin Kamara under 32.5 rushing yards (-110 at Bovada)CFinal, graded once the box score posts · Small play, 0.25u staked · his history, the script (2 kinds agree) · no registered rule, a readHOUTENFinalJaylin Noel over 18.5 receiving yards (-115 at Bovada)CFinal, graded once the box score posts · Small play, 0.25u staked · the matchup, the script (2 kinds agree) · no registered rule, a readDENLACFinalKeaton Mitchell under 32.5 rushing yards (-115 at Bovada)CFinal, graded once the box score posts · C Grade, 1u staked · the matchup, the script (2 kinds agree) · proof A, the spot rushing-yards under ruleDENLACFinalOronde Gadsden II under 3.5 catches (-116 at BetMGM/DraftKings)Final, graded once the box score posts · Small play, 0.25u staked · no kind counted, a read · proof C, the early-week under ruleSF
SEAFinalSF +3 (+105)AFinal, graded once the box score posts · B Grade, 2u staked · history, the script, the market, the grid (4 kinds agree) · no registered rule, a readDETARIFinalSam LaPorta over 51.5 receiving yards (-110)BFinal, graded once the box score posts · B Grade, 2u staked · his history, the matchup, the script (3 kinds agree) · proof C, the prop-board spot outside the registered markets ruleSFSEAFinalDeebo Samuel Sr. under 3.5 catches (-130)BFinal, graded once the box score posts · B Grade, 1u staked · the matchup, the script, the weather (3 kinds agree) · proof A, the spot receptions under ruleDETARIFinalUnder 54.5 (+100 at Courtside)BFinal, graded once the box score posts · Small play, 0.25u staked · history, the script, the market (3 kinds agree) · proof B, the Tuesday total ruleBALATLSun 8:20 PMThe totalPassThe pick and its size open with the PassBALATLSun 8:20 PMA player linePassThe pick and its size open with the PassBUFLAMon 8:15 PMA player linePassThe pick and its size open with the PassBUFLAMon 8:15 PMA player linePassThe pick and its size open with the PassBUFLAMon 8:15 PMA player linePassThe pick and its size open with the Pass · 2 kinds agreeBUFLAMon 8:15 PMThe totalPassThe pick and its size open with the Pass · 4 kinds agreeBUFLAMon 8:15 PMA player linePassThe pick and its size open with the Pass · 2 kinds agreeWatching, not bets
TBDALFinalDak Prescott over 265.5 passing yards (-115 at Bovada)Final, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · the matchup (one kind, a read) · proof C, the prop-board spot outside the registered markets rulePHIJAXFinalPHI +6.5Final, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · the market (one kind, a read) · proof C, the all-angles evidence score rulePHIJAXFinalBrenton Strange under 3.5 catches (-135 at Bovada)CFinal, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · the matchup, the script (2 kinds agree) · proof C, the prop-board spot outside the registered markets rulePHIJAXFinalJAX -7.5 (-102)CFinal, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · history, the script (2 kinds agree) · no registered rule, a readMINNOFinalNO +1.5Final, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · a rule (one kind, a read) · proof C, the mined angle card ruleCINMIAFinalOver 42.5 (-108 at Caesars)CFinal, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · the weather, the market (2 kinds agree) · no registered rule, a readMINNOFinalKyler Murray under 213.5 passing yards (-115 at Bovada/Bovada)Final, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · the matchup (one kind, a read) · proof C, the early-week under ruleINDPITFinalJosh Downs under 59.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel/FanDuel)Final, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · no kind counted, a read · proof C, the early-week under ruleCLENYJFinalUnder 39.5BFinal, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · the weather, the market, a rule (3 kinds agree) · proof A, the heavy rain under ruleNYGWASFinalMalachi Fields under 2.5 catches (-170 at Bovada)Final, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · the matchup (one kind, a read) · proof C, the tall-WR catches under ruleHOUTENFinalDavid Montgomery under 15.5 carries (-124 at DraftKings/DraftKings)Final, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · the matchup (one kind, a read) · proof C, the early-week under ruleINDPITFinalPat Freiermuth over 28.5 receiving yards (-115 at Bovada)BFinal, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · the matchup, the script, the weather (3 kinds agree) · proof C, the prop-board spot outside the registered markets ruleHOUTENFinalHOU -7.5 (-104)BFinal, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · history, the script, the market (3 kinds agree) · proof C, the all-angles evidence score ruleHOUTENFinalTEN +7.5 (-105)CFinal, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · the market, the grid (2 kinds agree) · no registered rule, a readCHIGBFinalJonnu Smith over 7.5 receiving yards (-110)Final, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · no kind counted, a read · proof A, the tiny receiving line over ruleCINMIAFinalMIA +6.5 (+100)Final, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · the market (one kind, a read) · no registered rule, a readCINMIAFinalCIN -6.5 (-115)BFinal, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · history, the script, the market (3 kinds agree) · no registered rule, a readCINMIAFinalTee Higgins over 50 receiving yardsCFinal, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · his history, the script (2 kinds agree) · no registered rule, a readHOUTENFinalXavier Hutchinson over 14.5 receiving yardsBFinal, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · his history, the matchup, the script (3 kinds agree) · no registered rule, a readHOUTENFinalOver 38.5 (-103)CFinal, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · history, the script (2 kinds agree) · no registered rule, a readINDPITFinalDarnell Washington over 21.5 receiving yards (-120)Final, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · the matchup (one kind, a read) · proof C, the prop-board spot outside the registered markets ruleCHIGBFinalTyson Bagent under 220.5 passing yards (-115)AFinal, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · his history, the matchup, the script, the weather (4 kinds agree) · no registered rule, a readCHIGBFinalChristian Watson over 62.5 receiving yards (-115)Final, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · the matchup (one kind, a read) · no registered rule, a readCLENYJFinalHarold Fannin Jr. over 35.5 receiving yards (-115)AFinal, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · his history, the matchup, the script, the weather (4 kinds agree) · no registered rule, a readHOUTENFinalGunnar Helm under 2.5 catches (-135)CFinal, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · the matchup, the script (2 kinds agree) · no registered rule, a readHOUTENFinalElic Ayomanor over 17.5 receiving yards (-110)Final, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · no kind counted, a read · no registered rule, a readNYGWASFinalCam Skattebo over 13.5 receiving yards (-115)Final, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · the matchup (one kind, a read) · no registered rule, a readMINNOFinalMIN -2.5 (-103)AFinal, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · history, the script, the market, a rule (4 kinds agree) · proof C, the mined angle card ruleCLENYJFinalRaheim Sanders under 2.5 catches (-185)BFinal, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · the matchup, the script, the weather (3 kinds agree) · proof C, the prop-board spot outside the registered markets ruleHOUTENFinalC.J. Stroud over 239.5 passing yards (-115 at Bovada)CFinal, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · his history, the script (2 kinds agree) · no registered rule, a readLVNEFinalHunter Henry under 3.5 catches (-105 at Bovada)BFinal, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · his history, the matchup, the script (3 kinds agree) · no registered rule, a readNYGWASFinalNYG team total Over 20.5 (+110 at Bovada)Final, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · the market (one kind, a read) · proof C, the team total 2+ off the posted number ruleNYGWASFinalWAS team total Under 23.5 (-130 at Bovada)Final, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · the market (one kind, a read) · proof C, the team total 2+ off the posted number ruleLVNEFinalKirk Cousins under 231.5 passing yards (-115 at Bovada)CFinal, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · his history, the script (2 kinds agree) · no registered rule, a readCLENYJFinalMason Taylor over 14.5 receiving yards (-110)Final, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · the matchup (one kind, a read) · no registered rule, a readINDPITFinalDaniel Jones over 207.5 passing yardsCFinal, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · his history, the script (2 kinds agree) · no registered rule, a readMINNOFinalUnder 41.5 (-106)CFinal, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · history, the script (2 kinds agree) · no registered rule, a readLVNEFinalDareke Young anytime TD (+3300 at BetRivers)Final, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · no kind counted, a read · proof C, the anytime TD past Kalshi's chance ruleMINNOFinalTai Felton anytime TD (+1400 at BetRivers)Final, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · no kind counted, a read · proof C, the anytime TD past Kalshi's chance ruleMINNOFinalJauan Jennings anytime TD (+750 at BetRivers)Final, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · no kind counted, a read · proof C, the anytime TD past Kalshi's chance ruleCINMIAFinalSamaje Perine anytime TD (+600 at BetRivers)Final, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · no kind counted, a read · proof C, the anytime TD past Kalshi's chance ruleCINMIAFinalDrew Sample anytime TD (+1500 at BetRivers)Final, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · no kind counted, a read · proof C, the anytime TD past Kalshi's chance ruleDENLACFinalLAC +3.5AFinal, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · history, the script, the market, a rule (4 kinds agree) · proof C, the mined angle card ruleDENLACFinalDEN -3.5 (+105)CFinal, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · history, the script (2 kinds agree) · no registered rule, a readDENLACFinalOver 41.5 (-115)CFinal, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · history, the script (2 kinds agree) · no registered rule, a readDENLACFinalBo Nix over 220.5 passing yardsCFinal, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · his history, the script (2 kinds agree) · no registered rule, a readDENLACFinalDEN team total Under 23.5 (-125 at Bovada)Final, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · the market (one kind, a read) · proof C, the team total 2+ off the posted number ruleSFSEAFinalMike Evans under 49.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings/DraftKings)Final, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · the script (one kind, a read) · proof C, the early-week under ruleSFSEAFinalCooper Kupp over 24.5 receiving yards (-120)Final, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · the matchup (one kind, a read) · no registered rule, a readSFSEAFinalEmanuel Wilson under 60.5 rushing yards (-115)Final, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · the matchup (one kind, a read) · no registered rule, a readSFSEAFinalGeorge Holani under 19.5 rushing yards (-120)Final, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · the matchup (one kind, a read) · no registered rule, a readSFSEAFinalSF team total Over 21.5 (+100 at Bovada)Final, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · the market (one kind, a read) · proof C, the team total 2+ off the posted number ruleSFSEAFinalBrock Purdy over 23.5 rushing yardsCFinal, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · his history, the script (2 kinds agree) · no registered rule, a readDETARIFinalElijah Higgins over 9.5 receiving yards (-115)AFinal, graded once the box score posts · Watching, not a bet · his history, the matchup, the script, a rule (4 kinds agree) · proof C, the prop-board spot outside the registered markets ruleBALATLSun 8:20 PMA sidePassThe pick and its size open with the Pass · 2 kinds agreeBALATLSun 8:20 PMA player linePassThe pick and its size open with the PassBUFLAMon 8:15 PMA player linePassThe pick and its size open with the Pass · 2 kinds agreeBUFLAMon 8:15 PMA player linePassThe pick and its size open with the PassBUFLAMon 8:15 PMA player linePassThe pick and its size open with the Pass · 3 kinds agreeBUFLAMon 8:15 PMA story parlayPassThe pick and its size open with the Pass · 2 kinds agreeBUFLAMon 8:15 PMA story parlayPassThe pick and its size open with the Pass · 2 kinds agreeReads, every game
A bet is on this week's card; a read is evidence with nothing bet on it. Kinds: history, the matchup, the script, the weather, the market, a rule.BALATLSun 8:20 PMSideA sidePasshistory, the script, the market · 3 kinds · watching · opens with the Pass
TotalThe totalPassbet · opens with the Pass
One playerA player linePassbet · opens with the Pass
BUFLAMon 8:15 PMSideFree with an emailthe market · 1 kind · read
TotalThe totalPasshistory, the script, the weather, the market · 4 kinds · bet · opens with the Pass
One playerA player linePasshis history, the matchup, the script · 3 kinds · bet · opens with the Pass
TBDALFinalSideThe market has the Cowboys by 9.5 over the Buccaneers, and the model has it closer than that.the market · 1 kind · read
TotalThe Cowboys have gone over 7 of 8 as a favorite of 7 or morehistory · 1 kind · read
One playerJavonte Williams under 72.5 rushing yards (-115 at Bovada)bet
PHIJAXFinalSideJAX -7.5 (-102)Chistory, the script · 2 kinds · watching
TotalOver 42.5Bthe script, the weather, the market, a rule · 4 kinds · bet
One playerParker Washington under 4.5 catches (+100)Bhis history, the matchup, the script · 3 kinds · bet
CHIGBFinalSideGB +3Athe weather, the market, a rule, the grid · 4 kinds · bet
TotalGusts 20 mph at kickoffthe weather · 1 kind · read
One playerTyson Bagent under 220.5 passing yards (-115)Ahis history, the matchup, the script, the weather · 4 kinds · watching
CINMIAFinalSideCIN -6.5 (-115)Bhistory, the script, the market · 3 kinds · watching
TotalOver 42.5 (-108 at Caesars)Cthe weather, the market · 2 kinds · watching
One playerTee Higgins over 50 receiving yardsChis history, the script · 2 kinds · watching
CLENYJFinalSideThe market has the Jets by 2.5 over the Browns and the model agrees.the market · 1 kind · read
TotalUnder 39.5Bthe script, the weather, the market, a rule · 4 kinds · watching
One playerDeshaun Watson under 31.5 pass attempts (-123 at DraftKings/DraftKings)the matchup, the script, the weather · 3 kinds · bet
HOUTENFinalSideHOU -7.5 (-104)Bhistory, the script, the market · 3 kinds · watching
TotalOver 38.5 (-103)Chistory, the script, the market · 3 kinds · watching
One playerTony Pollard under 8.5 receiving yards (-115)Cthe matchup, the script · 2 kinds · bet
INDPITFinalSideIND +2.5 (+103)Ahistory, the script, the market, the grid · 4 kinds · bet
TotalGusts 29 mph at kickoffthe weather, the market · 2 kinds · read
One playerPat Freiermuth over 28.5 receiving yards (-115 at Bovada)Bhis history, the matchup, the script, the weather · 4 kinds · watching
LVNEFinalSideThe model leans LV (+1.8 past luck)the market · 1 kind · read
TotalThe model leans the over (+1.9 past luck)the script, the market · 2 kinds · read
One playerTreVeyon Henderson over 50 rushing yardsBhis history, the matchup, the script · 3 kinds · bet
MINNOFinalSideMIN -2.5 (-103)Ahistory, the script, the market, a rule · 4 kinds · watching
TotalUnder 41.5 (-106)Chistory, the script · 2 kinds · watching
One playerAlvin Kamara under 32.5 rushing yards (-110 at Bovada)Chis history, the matchup, the script · 3 kinds · bet
NYGWASFinalSideUnderdogs have covered 26 of 40 in week 5 in a division game (65%, usually 51%)history · 1 kind · read
TotalGusts 24 mph at kickoff and 0.1 in of rain at kickoffthe script, the weather, the market · 3 kinds · read
One playerJayden Daniels over 28.5 rushing yards (-115)Cthe matchup, the script · 2 kinds · bet
DENLACFinalSideLAC +3.5Ahistory, the script, the market, a rule · 4 kinds · watching
TotalOver 41.5 (-115)Chistory, the script, the market · 3 kinds · watching
One playerKeaton Mitchell under 32.5 rushing yards (-115 at Bovada)Cthe matchup, the script · 2 kinds · bet
DETARIFinalSideThe Lions have covered 13 of 17 as a favorite after a losshistory, the script, the market · 3 kinds · read
TotalUnder 54.5 (+100 at Courtside)Bhistory, the script, the market · 3 kinds · bet
One playerSam LaPorta over 51.5 receiving yards (-110)Bhis history, the matchup, the script, a rule · 4 kinds · bet
SFSEAFinalSideSF +3 (+105)Ahistory, the script, the market, the grid · 4 kinds · bet
TotalThe 49ers have gone over 10 of 13 on the road in a division gamehistory, the market · 2 kinds · read
One playerDeebo Samuel Sr. under 3.5 catches (-130)Bthe matchup, the script, the weather · 3 kinds · bet
Player trends
Michael Penix Jr.QB · ATL · BAL at ATLMichael Penix Jr. has 5 of his last 6 games in prime time with over 218.5 passing yards.5 of 6Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB · WAS · NYG at WASJacory Croskey-Merritt has 5 of his last 6 games in division games outdoors with a rushing touchdown.5 of 6TreVeyon HendersonRB · NE · LV at NETreVeyon Henderson has 8 of his last 10 games as a favorite with over 46.5 rushing yards.8 of 10Xavier HutchinsonWR · HOU · HOU at TENXavier Hutchinson has 9 of his last 10 games as a favorite with over 15.5 receiving yards.9 of 10Bo NixQB · DEN · DEN at LACBo Nix has 8 of his last 10 games on the road with over 14.5 rushing yards.8 of 10Angles this week
65%
Road teams covered 46 of 71 in week 5 after the home team lost
8 games this week: DET at ARI, DEN at LAC, CIN at MIA, MIN at NO, CLE at NYJ, IND at PIT, HOU at TEN, NYG at WAS. Usually 50%.
66%
Unders hit 33 of 50 in October on Monday
1 game this week: BUF at LA. Usually 51%.
66%
Favorites covered 23 of 35 overseas
1 game this week: PHI at JAX. Usually 48%.
Biggest line gaps across the books
21 books polled Sun 4:05 PM UTC MIN at NO: MIN -2.5 +100 at LowVig.agMIN -1 -125at BetOnline.ag CLE at NYJ: NYJ -2.5 -110 at FanDuelNYJ -1 -125at LowVig.ag BAL at ATL: BAL +3 +100 at DraftKingsBAL +4 -120at Fanatics BUF at LA: BUF +3 +100 at DraftKingsBUF +3.5 -110at ReBetLine arbitrage
A line arbitrage is the same game priced two ways at two books, so a bet on each side pays whatever happens; a middle is the version where the numbers differ and a narrow result pays both.
Live count loading from the last poll.
1.5-point middle
NO +2.5 -105 at Fanatics and MIN -1 -125 at BetOnline.ag
MIN wins by 1 or 2 and both tickets cash (a push on one is a refund); any other result, one wins and one loses.
My book
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