This week
16 games, 1 final and listed last. Tap one to open it.The matchup
Colts ahead means Taylor carries it late; Commanders chasing means Kaliakmanis throws, and Brown, Diggs and Okonkwo get the volume.
IND has to
Send it at Mariota, and get there
WAS has to
Steal a possession
Player trend
Jonathan Taylor RB IND9 of 1050+ rushing yards, as a favorite
Game trend
- Overs have hit 65 of 108 in week 4 outside the division60% vs 48%
Who's hurt
DJ GiddensOUTCoach's Decision
Dalton TuckerOUTCoach's Decision
Darius SlaytonOUTCoach's Decision
The matchup
Close on paper, so neither side is scripted to chase: Winston and Brissett both throw, and the backs (Skattebo, Love) carry it on whichever side gets ahead.
ARI has to
Load the box
NYG has to
Send it at Brissett
Player trend
Trey McBride TE ARI8 of 10a receiving touchdown, on the road
Game trend
- Overs have hit 65 of 108 in week 4 outside the division60% vs 48%
Who's hurt
Cameron RobertsonOUTCoach's Decision
Carson BeckOUTCoach's Decision
Dadrion Taylor-DemersonOUTBack
The matchup
Texans ahead means Montgomery carries it late; Cowboys chasing means Prescott throws, and Lamb, Pickens and Ferguson get the volume.
DAL has to
Send it at Stroud
HOU has to
Keep Stroud clean
Player trend
CeeDee Lamb WR DAL10 of 1050+ receiving yards, as an underdog
Game trend
- Overs have hit 65 of 108 in week 4 outside the division60% vs 48%
Who's hurt
Cobie DurantOUTHamstring
DeMarvion OvershownOUTHamstring
Azeez Al-ShaairOUTGroin
The matchup
Packers ahead means Johnson carries it late; Buccaneers chasing means Daniels throws, and Egbuka, Godwin and Otton get the volume.
GB has to
Take the easy throws
TB has to
Find Jr. against zone
Player trend
Bucky Irving RB TB9 of 1050+ rushing yards, at home
Game trend
- Favorites have covered 16 of 22 in week 4 in the rain73% vs 49%
Who's hurt
Aaron BanksOUTToe
Anthony CampbellOUTAnkle
Edgerrin CooperOUTAchilles
The matchup
Close on paper, so neither side is scripted to chase: Burrow and Lawrence both throw, and the backs (Brown, Tuten) carry it on whichever side gets ahead.
JAX has to
Take the shots downfield
CIN has to
Keep a lid on it
Player trend
Ja'Marr Chase WR CIN9 of 106+ catches, at home
Game trend
- Overs have hit 65 of 108 in week 4 outside the division60% vs 48%
Who's hurt
Christian BraswellOUTKnee
Montaric BrownOUTHamstring
B.J. HillOUTAchilles
The matchup
Rams ahead means Williams carries it late; Eagles chasing means Hurts throws, and Wicks, Lemon and Ertz get the volume.
LA has to
Take the shots downfield
PHI has to
Run into light boxes
Player trend
Jalen Hurts QB PHI8 of 102+ passing touchdowns, at home
Game trend
- Overs have hit 65 of 108 in week 4 outside the division60% vs 48%
Who's hurt
Aaron DonaldOUTBack
Colby ParkinsonOUTShoulder
Jaylen WatsonOUTShoulder
The matchup
Bills ahead means Cook carries it late and Allen throws less; Patriots chasing means Maye throws, and Doubs, Douglas and Henry get the volume.
NE has to
Load the box
BUF has to
Take the shots downfield
Player trend
James Cook RB BUF9 of 1050+ rushing yards, as a favorite
Game trend
- Unders have hit 31 of 48 in week 4 in a division game65% vs 51%
Who's hurt
Brenden SchoolerOUTBack
Channing CanadaOUTHamstring
Christian BarmoreOUTShoulder
The matchup
Bears ahead means Swift carries it late; Jets chasing means Smith throws, and Wilson, Pritchett and Sadiq get the volume.
NYJ has to
Keep Smith clean
CHI has to
Go get the ball
Player trend
D'Andre Swift RB CHI9 of 12under 2.5 rec, as a favorite
Game trend
- Overs have hit 65 of 108 in week 4 outside the division60% vs 48%
Who's hurt
Adonai MitchellOUTFinger
Braiden McGregorOUTPectoral
Breece HallOUTQuadriceps
The matchup
Ravens ahead means Henry carries it late and Jackson throws less; Titans chasing means Ward throws, and Tate, Robinson and Helm get the volume.
TEN has to
Throw on first and second down
BAL has to
Give Jackson a clean pocket
Player trend
Derrick Henry RB BAL10 of 1050+ rushing yards, as a favorite
Game trend
- Favorites have covered 16 of 22 in week 4 in the rain73% vs 49%
Who's hurt
Chris MooreOUTAnkle
Trey HendricksonOUTFinger
Dorian MausiIR
The matchup
Vikings ahead means Jones carries it late and Murray throws less; Dolphins chasing means Willis throws, and Washington, Tolbert and Dulcich get the volume.
MIA has to
Run at the Vikings zone eyes
MIN has to
Squeeze them
Player trend
Justin Jefferson WR MIN10 of 1050+ receiving yards, at home as a favorite
Game trend
- Overs have hit 65 of 108 in week 4 outside the division60% vs 48%
Who's hurt
Caleb DouglasOUTAnkle
Darrell Baker Jr.OUT
Robert Beal Jr.OUTHamstring
The matchup
49ers ahead means McCaffrey carries it late; Broncos chasing means Nix throws, and Waddle, Sutton and Engram get the volume.
DEN has to
Find Waddle against zone
SF has to
Make the extra hat pay
Player trend
Christian McCaffrey RB SF9 of 10a rushing touchdown, as a favorite
Game trend
- Overs have hit 65 of 108 in week 4 outside the division60% vs 48%
Who's hurt
Dondrea TillmanOUTHamstring
Nick GargiuloOUTKnee
Brandon AiyukOUTPersonal
The matchup
Chiefs ahead means Walker carries it late; Raiders chasing means Cousins throws, and Tucker, Nailor and Bowers get the volume.
KC has to
Find Rice against zone
LV has to
Change the picture on Rice
Player trend
Kenneth Walker III RB KC8 of 1050+ rushing yards, as a favorite
Game trend
- Unders have hit 31 of 48 in week 4 in a division game65% vs 51%
Who's hurt
Josh SimmonsOUTBack
Omarr Norman-LottOUTKnee
Tyquan ThorntonOUTAnkle
The matchup
Seahawks ahead means Wilson carries it late and Darnold throws less; Chargers chasing means Herbert throws, and McConkey, Johnston and Gadsden get the volume.
LAC has to
Go get the ball
SEA has to
Squeeze them
Player trend
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR SEA9 of 1075+ receiving yards, at home
Game trend
- Overs have hit 65 of 108 in week 4 outside the division60% vs 48%
Who's hurt
Brenen ThompsonOUTQuadriceps
Charlie KolarOUTForearm
Dalvin TomlinsonOUTHamstring
The matchup
Lions ahead means Gibbs carries it late; Panthers chasing means Young throws, and McMillan, Metchie and Tremble get the volume.
DET has to
Give Goff a clean pocket
CAR has to
Steal a possession
Player trend
Jahmyr Gibbs RB DET9 of 1050+ rushing yards, on the road as a favorite
Game trend
- Favorites have covered 16 of 22 in week 4 in the rain73% vs 49%
Who's hurt
Ben BartchOUTFoot
Brian BranchOUTAchilles
Giovanni ManuOUTKnee
The matchup
Close on paper, so neither side is scripted to chase: Shough and Penix both throw, and the backs (Kamara, Robinson) carry it on whichever side gets ahead.
ATL has to
Find London against zone
NO has to
Throw on first and second down
Player trend
Chris Olave WR NO10 of 1050+ receiving yards, indoors
Who's hurt
Anterio ThompsonOUT
Storm NortonOUTFoot
Anfernee JenningsOUTKnee
The matchup
Division game in prime time
PIT has to
Find Metcalf against man
CLE has to
Squeeze them
Player trend
Quinshon Judkins RB CLE5 of 650+ rushing yards, at home as an underdog
Game trend
- Unders have hit 31 of 48 in week 4 in a division game65% vs 51%
Who's hurt
Derrick HarmonOUTFoot
Donte KentOUT
Drew AllarOUTCoach's Decision
Whose line is it?
Set your own spread on this week's games. After you log them you see Vegas and our number next to yours, and Tuesday morning you get graded.
This week's board
Top five of each kind from 21 bets and 56 situations. The number is the score out of 100.Totals, overs
JAXCINSun 13:00The totalPassThe bet opens with the Pass86scoreINDWASSun 09:30The totalPassThe bet opens with the Pass85scoreMIAMINSun 16:05The totalPassThe bet opens with the Pass80scoreARINYGSun 13:00The totalPassThe bet opens with the Pass78scoreNYJCHISun 13:00The totalPassThe bet opens with the Pass70scoreTotals, unders
GBTBSun 13:00The totalPassThe bet opens with the Pass76scorePITCLEFinalThe totalPassThe bet opens with the Pass721u · -107NEBUFSun 13:00The totalPassThe bet opens with the Pass63scorePlayer lines, overs
INDWASSun 09:30A player linePassThe bet opens with the Pass82scoreNYJCHISun 13:00A player linePassThe bet opens with the Pass81scoreNYJCHISun 13:00A player linePassThe bet opens with the Pass78scoreINDWASSun 09:30A player linePassThe bet opens with the Pass74scorePlayer lines, unders
Nothing clears the bar this week.
Sides
MIAMINSun 16:05A sidePassThe bet opens with the Pass98scoreGBTBSun 13:00A sidePassThe bet opens with the Pass76scorePITCLEFinalA sidePassThe bet opens with the Pass730.5u · +100DETCARSun 20:20A sidePassThe bet opens with the Pass75scoreNEBUFSun 13:00A sidePassThe bet opens with the Pass68scoreSituations
MIAMINSun 16:056 situations fit this gameWhich ones, and the side each backs, open on the matchup sheet with the Pass0past the luck lineATLNOMon 20:156 situations fit this gameWhich ones, and the side each backs, open on the matchup sheet with the Pass0past the luck lineGBTBSun 13:005 situations fit this gameWhich ones, and the side each backs, open on the matchup sheet with the Pass0past the luck lineNEBUFSun 13:004 situations fit this gameWhich ones, and the side each backs, open on the matchup sheet with the Pass0past the luck lineDETCARSun 20:204 situations fit this gameWhich ones, and the side each backs, open on the matchup sheet with the Pass0past the luck linePlayer trends
Terry McLaurinWR · WAS · IND at WASTerry McLaurin has 8 of his last 10 games as an underdog with 50+ receiving yards.8 of 10Christian McCaffreyRB · SF · DEN at SFChristian McCaffrey has 9 of his last 10 games as a favorite with a rushing touchdown.9 of 10Trey McBrideTE · ARI · ARI at NYGTrey McBride has 8 of his last 10 games on the road with a receiving touchdown.8 of 10
Jacoby BrissettQB · ARI · ARI at NYGJacoby Brissett has 8 of his last 10 games on the road with 2+ passing touchdowns.8 of 10Jalen HurtsQB · PHI · LA at PHIJalen Hurts has 8 of his last 10 games at home with 2+ passing touchdowns.8 of 10Angles this week
Overs hit 65 of 108 in week 4 outside the division
12 games this week: DET at CAR, LAC at SEA, DEN at SF, MIA at MIN, TEN at BAL, NYJ at CHI, JAX at CIN, DAL at HOU, ARI at NYG, LA at PHI, GB at TB, IND at WAS. Usually 48%.
Unders hit 33 of 49 in October on Monday
1 game this week: ATL at NO. Usually 51%.
Favorites covered 16 of 22 in week 4 in the rain
3 games this week: DET at CAR, TEN at BAL, GB at TB. Usually 49%.
How our card grades
295 bets graded across 3 weeks, week 4 so far 5-4.The bets we sized
50% won, -0.5u
Score 80 and up
89% won
Score 70 to 79
60% won
Score 60 to 69
64% won
Score under 60
44% won
Which reasons hit
Bets that agreed with the game's story went 40-26; bets against it went 46-48. Every bet counts as it stood at the last build before kickoff.
Biggest line gaps across the books
21 books polled Sat 3:05 PM UTC ATL at NO: NO -2.5 -105 at DraftKingsNO -1 -118at LowVig.ag DEN at SF: SF -3 +102 at CourtsideSF -2 -120at BetUS TEN at BAL: TEN +11.5 -105 at LowVig.agTEN +12.5 -120at ReBet IND at WAS: IND -4.5 -104 at CaesarsIND -3.5 -120at FanDuelLine arbitrage
A line arbitrage is the same game priced two ways at two books, so a bet on each side pays whatever happens; a middle is the version where the numbers differ and a narrow result pays both.
Live count loading from the last poll.
NO -1 -118 at LowVig.ag and ATL +2.5 -109 at Caesars
NO wins by 1 or 2 and both tickets cash (a push on one is a refund); any other result, one wins and one loses.
My book
Track the plays you take, graded against the closing line. Signed in, your record shows here.