Your free account is on. You now see our number on every game, the game trends, bets and money, and ten Angle Finder searches a day. The picks are the Pass.
What the Pass adds→This week
14 games. Tap one to open it.The matchup
Seahawks ahead means the lead back carries it late; Broncos chasing means the quarterback throws, and the receivers get the volume.
SEA has to
Find Smith-Njigba against man
DEN has to
Go get the ball
Where the game turns
- Seahawks pass defense (2nd) vs Broncos passing game (24th). Expect the Broncos to find nowhere to throw. Gaps like this since 2015: won 67% of 313, covered 52%.
Player trend
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR SEA8 of 10over 6.5 catches, on the road
Game trend
- Road teams have covered 15 of 23 in week 6 in the rain65% vs 51%
Who's hurt
Jalen MilroeOUTCoach's Decision
Montorie Foster Jr.OUTCoach's Decision
Nick KallerupOUTCoach's Decision
The matchup
Jaguars ahead means the lead back carries it late; Texans chasing means the quarterback throws, and the receivers get the volume.
HOU has to
Find Boutte against zone
JAX has to
Run the offense
Where the game turns
- Jaguars run defense (2nd) vs Texans run game (28th). Expect the Texans to give up on the run early. Gaps like this since 2015: won 63% of 322, covered 49%.
Player trend
- No player trend on this game yet.
Who's hurt
Aiden FisherOUTCoach's Decision
Chris BraswellOUTCoach's Decision
Collin WrightOUTCoach's Decision
The matchup
Ravens ahead means the lead back carries it late; Browns chasing means the quarterback throws, and the receivers get the volume.
BAL has to
Find Andrews against man
CLE has to
Get home without blitzing
Where the game turns
- Ravens run game (4th) vs Browns run defense (30th). Expect the Ravens to run it until the Browns prove they can stop it. Gaps like this since 2015: won 60% of 351, covered 47%.
Player trend
Derrick Henry RB BAL10 of 1050+ rushing yards, as a favorite
Game trend
- Underdogs have covered 41 of 66 in week 6 after the road team won62% vs 51%
Who's hurt
Jeremiah Owusu-KoramoahOUTNeck
Parker BrailsfordOUTCoach's Decision
Taylen GreenOUTCoach's Decision
The matchup
Close on paper, so neither side is scripted to chase: the Eagles quarterback and the Panthers quarterback both throw, and the backs (?, ?) carry it on whichever side gets ahead.
CAR has to
Send it at Hurts, and get there
PHI has to
Keep Hurts clean
Where the game turns
- Panthers passing game (4th) vs Eagles pass defense (22nd). Expect the Panthers to attack through the air all day. Gaps like this since 2015: won 61% of 799, covered 50%.
Player trend
Jalen Hurts QB PHI8 of 102+ passing touchdowns, at home
Game trend
- Underdogs have covered 41 of 66 in week 6 after the road team won62% vs 51%
Who's hurt
Ikem EkwonuOUTKnee
Taylor MotonOUTIllness
Tershawn WhartonOUTNeck
The matchup
Bears ahead means the lead back carries it late; Falcons chasing means the quarterback throws, and the receivers get the volume.
CHI has to
Send it at Jr., and get there
ATL has to
Find Pitts against man
Where the game turns
- Bears pass defense (6th) vs Falcons passing game (28th). Expect the Falcons to find nowhere to throw. Gaps like this since 2015: won 67% of 313, covered 52%.
Player trend
Drake London WR ATL9 of 1050+ receiving yards, at home
Who's hurt
Anthony Johnson Jr.OUT
Jamree KromahOUTCoach's Decision
Jayden LovingOUTCoach's Decision
The matchup
Close on paper, so neither side is scripted to chase: the Giants quarterback and the Saints quarterback both throw, and the backs (?, ?) carry it on whichever side gets ahead.
NO has to
Throw on first and second down
NYG has to
Go get the ball
Where the game turns
- Giants pass defense (7th) vs Saints passing game (20th). Expect the Saints to find nowhere to throw. Gaps like this since 2015: won 60% of 787, covered 48%.
Player trend
- No player trend on this game yet.
Who's hurt
Mike ReidOUTCoach's Decision
Zach WilsonOUTCoach's Decision
Bobby Jamison-TravisOUTCoach's Decision
The matchup
Patriots ahead means the lead back carries it late and the quarterback throws less; Jets chasing means the quarterback throws, and the receivers get the volume.
NYJ has to
Blitz them
NE has to
Squeeze them
Where the game turns
- Jets run defense (7th) vs Patriots run game (20th). Expect the Patriots to give up on the run early. Gaps like this since 2015: won 58% of 848, covered 52%.
Player trend
TreVeyon Henderson RB NE8 of 1050+ rushing yards, as a favorite
Game trend
- Underdogs have covered 41 of 66 in week 6 after the road team won62% vs 51%
Who's hurt
Nahshon WrightOUTCoach's Decision
Nate LynnOUTCoach's Decision
Behren MortonOUTCoach's Decision
The matchup
Close on paper, so neither side is scripted to chase: the Buccaneers quarterback and the Steelers quarterback both throw, and the backs (?, ?) carry it on whichever side gets ahead.
PIT has to
Throw on first and second down
TB has to
Send it at Rodgers
Where the game turns
- Buccaneers run game (2nd) vs Steelers run defense (29th). Expect the Buccaneers to run it until the Steelers prove they can stop it. Gaps like this since 2015: won 60% of 351, covered 47%.
Player trend
Bucky Irving RB TB9 of 1050+ rushing yards, at home
Game trend
- Underdogs have covered 41 of 66 in week 6 after the road team won62% vs 51%
Who's hurt
Ben SkowronekOUTCalf
Drew AllarOUTCoach's Decision
Eli HeidenreichOUTCoach's Decision
The matchup
Colts ahead means the lead back carries it late and the quarterback throws less; Titans chasing means the quarterback throws, and the receivers get the volume.
TEN has to
Throw on first and second down
IND has to
Run at the Titans zone eyes
Where the game turns
- Colts run game (5th) vs Titans run defense (16th). Expect the Colts to run it until the Titans prove they can stop it. Gaps like this since 2015: won 58% of 793, covered 50%.
Player trend
Jonathan Taylor RB IND9 of 1050+ rushing yards, as a favorite
Who's hurt
Brandon Crenshaw-DicksonOUTCoach's Decision
Jackie MarshallOUTCoach's Decision
Jaylon JonesOUTCoach's Decision
The matchup
Rams ahead means the lead back carries it late and the quarterback throws less; Cardinals chasing means the quarterback throws, and the receivers get the volume.
ARI has to
Find Bourne against zone
LA has to
Throw on first and second down
Where the game turns
- Rams pass defense (5th) vs Cardinals passing game (26th). Expect the Cardinals to find nowhere to throw. Gaps like this since 2015: won 67% of 313, covered 52%.
Player trend
Jacoby Brissett QB ARI9 of 102+ passing touchdowns, on the road
Who's hurt
Andrew BillingsOUTCoach's Decision
Carson BeckOUTCoach's Decision
Marvin Harrison Jr.OUTCoach's Decision
The matchup
Bills ahead means the lead back carries it late; Raiders chasing means the quarterback throws, and the receivers get the volume.
BUF has to
Find Kincaid against zone
LV has to
Steal a possession
Where the game turns
- Bills passing game (3rd) vs Raiders pass defense (25th). Expect the Bills to attack through the air all day. Gaps like this since 2015: won 68% of 319, covered 47%.
Player trend
James Cook RB BUF9 of 1050+ rushing yards, on the road
Game trend
- Underdogs have covered 41 of 66 in week 6 after the road team won62% vs 51%
Who's hurt
Dorian StrongOUTNeck
Aidan O'ConnellOUTCoach's Decision
Dalton JohnsonOUTCoach's Decision
The matchup
Chiefs ahead means the lead back carries it late and the quarterback throws less; Chargers chasing means the quarterback throws, and the receivers get the volume.
LAC has to
Find II against man
KC has to
Go get the ball
Where the game turns
- Chiefs pass defense (17th) vs Chargers passing game (31st). Expect the Chargers to find nowhere to throw. Gaps like this since 2015: won 60% of 787, covered 48%.
Player trend
Justin Herbert QB LAC10 of 10over 0.5 passing touchdowns, in division games
Who's hurt
Omarr Norman-LottOUTKnee
David NjokuIRLower Leg
KeAndre Lambert-SmithIRHamstring
The matchup
Close on paper, so neither side is scripted to chase: the Packers quarterback and the Cowboys quarterback both throw, and the backs (?, ?) carry it on whichever side gets ahead.
DAL has to
Find Ferguson against zone
GB has to
Change the picture on Ferguson
Where the game turns
- Packers passing game (13th) vs Cowboys pass defense (32nd). Expect the Packers to attack through the air all day. Gaps like this since 2015: won 61% of 799, covered 50%.
Player trend
CeeDee Lamb WR DAL9 of 10over 5.5 catches, as an underdog
Who's hurt
Ajani CorneliusOUTCoach's Decision
Camden BrownOUTCoach's Decision
James HoustonOUTCoach's Decision
The matchup
49ers ahead means the lead back carries it late and the quarterback throws less; Commanders chasing means the quarterback throws, and the receivers get the volume.
WAS has to
Find McLaurin against zone
SF has to
Run the offense
Where the game turns
- 49ers passing game (1st) vs Commanders pass defense (19th). Expect the 49ers to attack through the air all day. Gaps like this since 2015: won 61% of 799, covered 50%.
Player trend
Christian McCaffrey RB SF9 of 10a rushing touchdown, as a favorite
Game trend
- Underdogs of 7 or more have covered 23 of 32 in week 6 outside the division72% vs 50%
Who's hurt
Tanoa TogiaiOUTCoach's Decision
Brandon AiyukOUTPersonal
Deebo Samuel Sr.OUTHamstring
Whose line is it?
Track your leans with a free account: set your own spread on this week's games, see Vegas and our number next to yours, and get graded Tuesday morning.
How the bets have done
By kinds
| A, 4+ kinds agree | 2-0 | +1.8u |
| B, 3 kinds | 23-16 | +2.8u |
| C, 2 kinds | 78-53-1 | +12.7u |
| One kind, a read | 209-190-8 | -8.5u |
By proof
| A, a rule held out | none yet | |
| B, a rule in a holdout | 1-1 | -0.1u |
| C, a test rule | none yet | |
| No rule, the score only | 1-1 | +0.1u |
Beat the close
31% of this season's priced bets got a better number than the game closed at.
If you bet with us all season
| A Grade · 80 and up | 9-3 | +5.6u |
| B Grade · 70 to 79 | 31-31-2 | -3.2u |
| C Grade · 60 to 69 | 116-81 | +21.8u |
| Under 60 | 156-144-7 | -15.5u |
A kind is one sort of evidence: history, the matchup, the script, the weather, the market or a rule. A is 4 or more different kinds agreeing, B is 3, C is 2; one kind alone is a read, not a grade. Weeks 2 to 5, 1 unit a bet at the price shown. 2021 to 2025, 60 and up: 143-123, +7.0u.
This week's official card
42 picks: 20 bets, 22 watching. Stamped Tue 12:34 PM ET.Bets
SEADENThu 8:15 PMA player linePassThe pick and its size open with the PassSEADENThu 8:15 PMA player linePassThe pick and its size open with the PassHOUJAXSun 9:30 AMA sidePassThe pick and its size open with the Pass · 2 kinds agreeHOUJAXSun 9:30 AMA player linePassThe pick and its size open with the PassPITTBSun 1:00 PMThe totalPassThe pick and its size open with the Pass · 2 kinds agreeCHIATLSun 1:00 PMA sidePassThe pick and its size open with the Pass · 2 kinds agreeBALCLESun 1:00 PMA sidePassThe pick and its size open with the PassCARPHISun 1:00 PMA sidePassThe pick and its size open with the Pass · 2 kinds agreeTENINDSun 1:00 PMThe totalPassThe pick and its size open with the Pass · 3 kinds agreeCHIATLSun 1:00 PMThe totalPassThe pick and its size open with the Pass · 2 kinds agreeNONYGSun 1:00 PMA sidePassThe pick and its size open with the Pass · 2 kinds agreeCARPHISun 1:00 PMThe totalPassThe pick and its size open with the Pass · 3 kinds agreeARILASun 4:05 PMThe totalPassThe pick and its size open with the Pass · 3 kinds agreeLACKCSun 4:25 PMA sidePassThe pick and its size open with the Pass · 2 kinds agreeBUFLVSun 4:25 PMThe totalPassThe pick and its size open with the Pass · 3 kinds agreeLACKCSun 4:25 PMA player linePassThe pick and its size open with the PassDALGBSun 8:20 PMThe totalPassThe pick and its size open with the Pass · 2 kinds agreeDALGBSun 8:20 PMA sidePassThe pick and its size open with the Pass · 3 kinds agreeWASSFMon 8:15 PMA sidePassThe pick and its size open with the PassWASSFMon 8:15 PMA player linePassThe pick and its size open with the PassWatching, not bets
SEADENThu 8:15 PMA player linePassThe pick and its size open with the PassSEADENThu 8:15 PMA betPassThe pick and its size open with the PassSEADENThu 8:15 PMA player linePassThe pick and its size open with the PassSEADENThu 8:15 PMA player linePassThe pick and its size open with the PassSEADENThu 8:15 PMA player linePassThe pick and its size open with the Pass · 2 kinds agreeHOUJAXSun 9:30 AMThe totalPassThe pick and its size open with the PassNYJNESun 1:00 PMA teaser legPassThe pick and its size open with the PassCARPHISun 1:00 PMA teaser legPassThe pick and its size open with the PassNYJNESun 1:00 PMA sidePassThe pick and its size open with the PassTENINDSun 1:00 PMA betPassThe pick and its size open with the PassPITTBSun 1:00 PMA betPassThe pick and its size open with the PassNONYGSun 1:00 PMA teaser legPassThe pick and its size open with the PassPITTBSun 1:00 PMA teaser legPassThe pick and its size open with the PassLACKCSun 4:25 PMThe totalPassThe pick and its size open with the PassLACKCSun 4:25 PMA teaser legPassThe pick and its size open with the PassBUFLVSun 4:25 PMA sidePassThe pick and its size open with the PassLACKCSun 4:25 PMA betPassThe pick and its size open with the PassLACKCSun 4:25 PMA betPassThe pick and its size open with the PassDALGBSun 8:20 PMA teaser legPassThe pick and its size open with the PassWASSFMon 8:15 PMThe totalPassThe pick and its size open with the Pass · 2 kinds agreeWASSFMon 8:15 PMA teaser legPassThe pick and its size open with the PassWASSFMon 8:15 PMA betPassThe pick and its size open with the PassReads, every game
A bet is on this week's card; a read is evidence with nothing bet on it. Kinds: history, the matchup, the script, the weather, the market, a rule.SEADENThu 8:15 PMHOUJAXSun 9:30 AMBALCLESun 1:00 PMCARPHISun 1:00 PMCHIATLSun 1:00 PMNONYGSun 1:00 PMNYJNESun 1:00 PMPITTBSun 1:00 PMTENINDSun 1:00 PMARILASun 4:05 PMBUFLVSun 4:25 PMLACKCSun 4:25 PMDALGBSun 8:20 PMWASSFMon 8:15 PMCollege: A, B and C Grade
Two rules, stamped before kickoff at the first number we saw: a player under when his rushing, receiving or catch line sits 50% or more above his last-10 average (A at 75%, B at 50%), and a total when our number sits 4 or more points off the opener (B), or 3 to 4 from week 6 (C). At most 15 bets a week, one player line per team per game, each at the best number a real sportsbook posted. A rule under break-even over 30 bets is Watching, 0 units.
Player trends
RJ HarveyRB · DEN · SEA at DENRJ Harvey has 5 of his last 6 games in prime time with over 20.5 receiving yards.5 of 6
J.K. DobbinsRB · DEN · SEA at DENJ.K. Dobbins has 8 of his last 10 games at home with over 46.5 rushing yards.8 of 10
Bo NixQB · DEN · SEA at DENBo Nix has 8 of his last 10 games outdoors as an underdog with over 203.5 passing yards.8 of 10Christian McCaffreyRB · SF · WAS at SFChristian McCaffrey has 9 of his last 10 games as a favorite with a rushing touchdown.9 of 10Jacoby BrissettQB · ARI · ARI at LAJacoby Brissett has 9 of his last 10 games on the road with 2+ passing touchdowns.9 of 10Angles this week
Biggest line gaps across the books
20 books polled Tue 2:05 PM UTC NO at NYG: NO -1.5 +100 at FanDuelNO +1.5 -111at Polymarket (US) DAL at GB: GB -1.5 +105 at theScore BetGB -0.5 -120at ReBet LAC at KC: KC -8.5 -102 at FanDuelKC -7.5 -120at BetOnline.ag ARI at LA: ARI +12.5 -102 at FanDuelARI +13.5 -110at ReBetLine arbitrage
A line arbitrage is the same game priced two ways at two books, so a bet on each side pays whatever happens; a middle is the version where the numbers differ and a narrow result pays both.
Live count loading from the last poll.
NYG +1.5 -115 at Hard Rock Bet and NO +1.5 -111 at Polymarket (US)
NO wins by 1.5 to 1.5 and both tickets cash (a push on one is a refund); any other result, one wins and one loses.
My book
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