Week 5 NFL Betting Card 2026: Line Moves and Model Edges
By StickToTheModel | Published: October 08, 2026 | 1 min read
Category: Betting Strategy
Week 5 Betting Card: Line Moves and Model Disagreements
Season: 2026 | Spreads are the home-team line from our daily log; "open" is the first observation we recorded. The model number is our walk-forward spread - where it disagrees with the market is information, not a pick.
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Where the Lines Moved
PHI @ JAC (2026-10-11): JAC +1.5 on 2026-08-25 → JAC -7.5 now (9.0 points toward JAC).
BAL @ ATL (2026-10-11): ATL +4.5 on 2026-08-25 → ATL -3.5 now (8.0 points toward ATL).
DEN @ LAC (2026-10-11): LAC -2.5 on 2026-08-25 → LAC +3.5 now (6.0 points away from LAC).
TB @ DAL (2026-10-08): DAL -3.5 on 2026-08-25 → DAL -8.5 now (5.0 points toward DAL).
LV @ NE (2026-10-11): NE -8.5 on 2026-08-25 → NE -3.5 now (5.0 points away from NE).
CHI @ GB (2026-10-11): GB -3.0 on 2026-08-25 → GB +1.5 now (4.5 points away from GB).
Model vs Market
DEN @ LAC: market says LAC +3.5, the model says LAC -1.7 - a 5.2-point gap in LAC's favor.
BAL @ ATL: market says ATL -3.5, the model says ATL +1.7 - a 5.2-point gap in BAL's favor.
PHI @ JAC: market says JAC -7.5, the model says JAC -2.7 - a 4.8-point gap in PHI's favor.
HOU @ TEN: market says TEN +7.5, the model says TEN +4.2 - a 3.3-point gap in TEN's favor.
TB @ DAL: market says DAL -8.5, the model says DAL -5.3 - a 3.1-point gap in TB's favor.