Week 8 Betting Card: Line Moves and Model Disagreements

Season: 2026 | Spreads are the home-team line from our daily log; "open" is the first observation we recorded. The model number is our walk-forward spread - where it disagrees with the market is information, not a pick.

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Where the Lines Moved

• IND @ JAC (2026-11-01): JAC -7.5 on 2026-10-21 → JAC -10.0 now (2.5 points toward JAC).
• PHI @ WAS (2026-11-01): WAS -3.5 on 2026-10-21 → WAS -6.0 now (2.5 points toward WAS).
• ATL @ TB (2026-11-01): TB -1.5 on 2026-10-21 → TB -2.5 now (1.0 points toward TB).
• CLE @ PIT (2026-11-01): PIT -4.5 on 2026-10-21 → PIT -3.5 now (1.0 points away from PIT).
• LAC @ LAR (2026-11-01): LAR -7.5 on 2026-10-21 → LAR -6.5 now (1.0 points away from LAR).
• ARI @ DAL (2026-11-01): DAL -6.5 on 2026-10-21 → DAL -7.0 now (0.5 points toward DAL).

Model vs Market

• IND @ JAC: market says JAC -10.0, the model says JAC -6.8 - a 3.2-point gap in IND's favor.
• PHI @ WAS: market says WAS -6.0, the model says WAS -2.8 - a 3.2-point gap in PHI's favor.
• KC @ DEN: market says DEN +1.5, the model says DEN -1.6 - a 3.1-point gap in DEN's favor.
• BAL @ BUF: market says BUF -3.0, the model says BUF -5.2 - a 2.2-point gap in BUF's favor.
• CLE @ PIT: market says PIT -3.5, the model says PIT -5.7 - a 2.2-point gap in PIT's favor.

The Full Board

Every game, every angle, the model's number vs the market: Betting hub → · Angle finder →