Week 9 Betting Card: Line Moves and Model Disagreements

Season: 2026 | Spreads are the home-team line from our daily log; "open" is the first observation we recorded. The model number is our walk-forward spread - where it disagrees with the market is information, not a pick.

---

Where the Lines Moved

• JAC @ BAL (2026-11-05): BAL -2.5 on 2026-10-28 → BAL +10.0 now (12.5 points away from BAL).
• ARI @ SEA (2026-11-08): SEA -10.5 on 2026-10-28 → SEA -8.5 now (2.0 points away from SEA).
• DAL @ IND (2026-11-08): IND +3.5 on 2026-10-28 → IND +5.5 now (2.0 points away from IND).
• NYG @ PHI (2026-11-08): PHI +1.5 on 2026-10-28 → PHI +3.5 now (2.0 points away from PHI).
• CIN @ ATL (2026-11-08): ATL +4.5 on 2026-08-25 → ATL +3.0 now (1.5 points toward ATL).
• HOU @ LAC (2026-11-08): LAC +3.0 on 2026-10-28 → LAC +4.5 now (1.5 points away from LAC).

Model vs Market

• NYG @ PHI: market says PHI +3.5, the model says PHI -2.7 - a 6.2-point gap in PHI's favor.
• JAC @ BAL: market says BAL +10.0, the model says BAL +3.9 - a 6.1-point gap in BAL's favor.
• ARI @ SEA: market says SEA -8.5, the model says SEA -13.5 - a 5.0-point gap in SEA's favor.
• DAL @ IND: market says IND +5.5, the model says IND +1.2 - a 4.3-point gap in IND's favor.
• BUF @ MIN: market says MIN +3.5, the model says MIN +1.0 - a 2.5-point gap in MIN's favor.

The Full Board

Every game, every angle, the model's number vs the market: Betting hub → · Angle finder →