How Our NFL Mock Draft Simulator Actually Works

I get asked this a lot: "Why did the AI reject my trade?" or "How does the computer decide who to pick?"

Fair questions. Most mock draft simulators feel like you're playing against a random number generator. Ours tries to be different. Here's the general idea of how it works.

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How AI Teams Make Picks

The short version: every AI team is trying to balance getting the best player available against filling actual roster needs. Same tension real GMs face.

When it's an AI team's turn to pick, they're looking at:

Who's still on the board - not just raw talent, but where that player ranks relative to where we are in the draft

What positions the team actually needs - these update based on roster moves, not some static list from preseason

Positional value - QBs and edge rushers go early for a reason; punters don't

The AI weighs these factors and makes a pick. Sometimes it "reaches" for a need. Sometimes it takes the best player available even if it's a position of strength. You know, like real teams do.

There's also some randomness built in so you don't see the exact same draft play out every time. Draft day has chaos. Ours should too.

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Why Some Trades Get Accepted (And Others Don't)

We use industry-standard trade value charts - the Jimmy Johnson chart and the Rich Hill chart - as the foundation. You've probably seen these before. Pick #1 is worth way more than pick #32, and so on.

When you propose a trade, the AI compares what you're offering against what you're asking for. If the value is reasonably close, it goes through. If you're trying to fleece them with a 7th-rounder for a top-10 pick, it gets rejected.

The trade meter in the interface gives you a sense of where you stand before you submit. Green means fair. Red means try again.

One thing we do that most simulators don't: player trades. You can package a veteran with picks to move up, like teams occasionally do on actual draft day. The AI assigns value to players based on their production and contract situation.

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How Draft Grades Work

After each pick, you get a grade. Here's what goes into it:

Value: Did you get this player at, above, or below where he was projected to go?

Fit: Does this pick address something your team actually needs?

Positional timing: Taking a kicker in Round 1 is going to hurt your grade. Taking one in Round 7 won't.

The grades aren't meant to tell you who to pick. They're meant to give you feedback on whether you're finding value or reaching. Use them or ignore them - your call.

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Where the Rankings Come From

We pull prospect rankings from multiple outlets and aggregate them into consensus rankings. No single source is gospel, so combining several gives you a more stable picture of where players actually stand.

Rankings update weekly during the season. Team needs update when rosters change. Draft order updates as the NFL season plays out.

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Why We Built It This Way

A lot of simulators just assign probabilities to players - "60% chance this guy goes in Round 1" - and then roll dice. That creates weird, unrealistic outcomes.

We wanted something that felt more like watching an actual draft unfold. Teams reaching for QBs. Trades happening when value is there. Late-round picks reflecting actual positional value.

Is it perfect? No. But it's a lot closer to the real thing than most alternatives.

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Try It Out

Enough talking about it. Go run a draft and see for yourself.

Start a Mock Draft →

It's free, no signup required, and you can run as many as you want.

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Questions? Hit us up on Twitter.