Mock Draft Strategy: What I've Learned Running Thousands of Drafts
I've run a lot of mock drafts. Like, an embarrassing number. Here's what I've figured out along the way.
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Position Matters More Than You Think
This sounds obvious but it took me a while to really internalize: where you draft a position matters as much as who you draft.
Quarterbacks, edge rushers, and offensive tackles go early because they're hard to find. Running backs and interior linemen can be found later because the talent pool is deeper.
If you need a franchise QB and one is falling, you go get him. If you need a running back, you can probably wait.
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The BPA vs. Need Thing
Everyone argues about "best player available" vs. "draft for need." Here's my take after doing this way too many times:
Early in the draft, lean toward the best player. The talent gap between picks is huge in Round 1. A great player at a position you didn't need is still a great player.
Later in the draft, fill holes. By Day 3, you're looking at players with similar ceilings anyway. Might as well address your roster gaps.
The exception: if a first-round talent is somehow sitting there in Round 3, you take him regardless of need. Those situations are rare, but they happen.
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Trading Up: Usually a Bad Idea
I used to trade up constantly. Gave up way too much to move up a few spots for "my guy."
Here's what I learned: trading up is almost never worth it unless you're getting a quarterback. QBs are the exception to everything. For every other position, the cost usually outweighs the benefit.
Trading down, on the other hand? Almost always good. You move back a few spots, pick up an extra Day 2 pick, and often still get a player you'd have been happy with anyway.
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Watch for Falling Players
Every draft has them. A player projected top-15 who's still there at 20. A second-rounder sliding into Round 3.
Why do players fall?
When you spot a faller, you have a decision: trade up to grab them at a discount, or hope they reach your pick. There's no formula here. It's feel.
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Build the Trenches
It's a cliche because it's true. Good offensive and defensive lines win games.
I try to come out of every draft with at least a couple linemen. Not necessarily early - you can find quality guards in Round 3 - but they need to be there somewhere.
Teams that ignore the trenches regret it.
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Mistakes I've Made (So You Don't Have To)
Reaching for running backs: RBs have short careers and can be found late. Taking one in Round 1 feels good in the moment and bad a year later. Trading future firsts: That 2027 first-rounder seems abstract. Then your team stinks and that pick becomes top-5. Hold onto future capital. Falling in love with combine results: A fast 40 time doesn't make a good football player. Production matters more than measurables. Hoarding picks: Having 12 draft picks sounds great until you realize half of them won't make the roster. Sometimes it's better to consolidate.---
How I Practice
Random mocking doesn't make you better. Structured practice does.
I'll draft as different team types: a rebuilder, a contender, a team desperate for a QB. Each situation requires different thinking.
I'll also focus on specific skills: just trade scenarios for a session, or seeing how late I can wait on certain positions before the talent dries up.
You learn more from 5 focused mocks than 20 mindless ones.
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Go Try It
Enough reading. Best way to learn is to do it.
Run a Mock Draft →Free, no signup, unlimited attempts. Make mistakes. Figure out what works for you.
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Got your own strategies? I'm always curious what other draft nerds have figured out. Hit me up on Twitter.