Understanding NFL Draft Value Charts: How Teams Value Picks and Make Trades

The NFL Draft Value Chart was originally developed by Jimmy Johnson during his time with the Dallas Cowboys. It revolutionized how teams evaluate draft picks and make trades on draft day.

What is a Draft Value Chart?

A draft value chart assigns point values to each pick in the NFL Draft, creating a standardized way to compare the relative worth of different draft positions. This helps teams determine fair trade packages when moving up or down in the draft.

The Jimmy Johnson Chart

The original chart, created in the 1990s, assigns the following values:

1st overall pick: 3,000 points

32nd pick (end of round 1): 590 points

1st pick of round 2: 580 points

The value drops sharply in early picks and gradually flattens out in later rounds.

The Rich Hill Chart

A more modern approach developed by Massey-Thaler and refined by Rich Hill uses analytics to value picks based on historical player performance. This chart tends to value later picks more highly than the Johnson chart.

How Teams Use Value Charts

Teams use these charts as a starting point for trade negotiations. For example:

Moving from pick 15 to pick 5 typically requires your first-round pick plus additional compensation

Trading back from the top 10 often nets a team an extra future first-round pick

Package deals involving multiple mid-round picks can equal the value of a single high pick

Factors Beyond the Chart

While value charts provide a baseline, teams also consider:

Team needs and positional scarcity

Depth of the draft class at specific positions

Future draft capital and team building timeline

Premium values for quarterbacks and pass rushers

The "discount" teams often demand for trading up

Practice Using Value Charts

Want to test your understanding of draft value? Try our NFL Mock Draft Simulator where you can make trades using real value chart calculations and see how teams evaluate different trade scenarios.

Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are draft value charts?

Draft value charts provide a good baseline but aren't perfect. Modern analytics show that the Jimmy Johnson chart overvalues early picks compared to their actual hit rates. Teams now use modified versions or proprietary charts.

Can you trade future picks in the NFL?

Yes! Teams can trade picks up to three years in advance. Future picks are typically valued at one round lower (e.g., a future first-rounder = a current second-rounder).

What's the most valuable pick in the draft?

While the #1 pick has the highest point value, picks in the 10-20 range often provide the best value - still landing elite talent without the massive contract of top-5 picks.

Do all teams use the same value chart?

No. While the Jimmy Johnson chart is the most famous, many teams have developed proprietary charts based on their own analytics and player evaluation methods.

Conclusion

Understanding draft value charts is essential for evaluating trades and team building strategies. Whether you're analyzing your favorite team's moves or participating in mock drafts, knowing how teams value picks gives you insight into the chess match of draft day.