The NFL Draft Value Chart was originally developed by Jimmy Johnson during his time with the Dallas Cowboys. It revolutionized how teams evaluate draft picks and make trades on draft day.
What is a Draft Value Chart?
A draft value chart assigns point values to each pick in the NFL Draft, creating a standardized way to compare the relative worth of different draft positions. This helps teams determine fair trade packages when moving up or down in the draft.
The Jimmy Johnson Chart
The original chart, created in the 1990s, assigns the following values:
The value drops sharply in early picks and gradually flattens out in later rounds.
The Rich Hill Chart
A more modern approach developed by Massey-Thaler and refined by Rich Hill uses analytics to value picks based on historical player performance. This chart tends to value later picks more highly than the Johnson chart.
How Teams Use Value Charts
Teams use these charts as a starting point for trade negotiations. For example:
Factors Beyond the Chart
While value charts provide a baseline, teams also consider:
Practice Using Value Charts
Want to test your understanding of draft value? Try our NFL Mock Draft Simulator where you can make trades using real value chart calculations and see how teams evaluate different trade scenarios.
Frequently Asked Questions
How accurate are draft value charts?
Draft value charts provide a good baseline but aren't perfect. Modern analytics show that the Jimmy Johnson chart overvalues early picks compared to their actual hit rates. Teams now use modified versions or proprietary charts.
Can you trade future picks in the NFL?
Yes! Teams can trade picks up to three years in advance. Future picks are typically valued at one round lower (e.g., a future first-rounder = a current second-rounder).
What's the most valuable pick in the draft?
While the #1 pick has the highest point value, picks in the 10-20 range often provide the best value - still landing elite talent without the massive contract of top-5 picks.
Do all teams use the same value chart?
No. While the Jimmy Johnson chart is the most famous, many teams have developed proprietary charts based on their own analytics and player evaluation methods.
Conclusion
Understanding draft value charts is essential for evaluating trades and team building strategies. Whether you're analyzing your favorite team's moves or participating in mock drafts, knowing how teams value picks gives you insight into the chess match of draft day.