Which NFL Teams Are Frauds?

A fraud isn't a bad team. They're just not who you think they are.

A month into the season, the standings are a snapshot. We see 3-1 and call a team good. We see 0-4 and call a team done. Come January, half that snapshot looks silly. The Fraud Meter tries to see January from October.

Four weeks in, our model has 15 potential frauds and 17 teams better than their record.

The biggest fraud is the 3-1 Giants. The most underrated team hasn't won a game: the 0-4 Texans. Here are the numbers behind the biggest calls.

Chart your team →

How the model makes each call

Fraud doesn't mean bad. It means a record is promising more than the team will deliver.

Every record comes with an expectation. The question is whether this team will live up to it. The model looks at three things: roster strength (how good the team is right now, with the players who are actually healthy), how they've played (not just whether they won, but how, and against who) and the schedule ahead.

If a team should finish worse than its record suggests, it's a fraud. If it should finish better, it's underrated.

Here's one signal anyone can check: every team's scoreboard against how it's played on offense and defense.

Teams below the line are getting out-gained. Since 2010, teams that outscored opponents over the first four weeks while getting out-gained won 54% of their remaining games. Teams that did both won 59%. It's a warning sign, not a verdict, which is why it's only one piece of the call. The Jaguars sit in that bottom-right corner, and the model still has them better than their record.

Why the Giants are the biggest fraud

Start with the biggest thing. Jaxson Dart went down early in Week 2 and isn't expected back before January. Jameis Winston has been the quarterback since, and Brian Burns, their best pass rusher, sat out last week with a bad ankle.

Look who they beat. Dallas, Tennessee and Arizona. Two of those teams have one win between them. The one good team they played, the Rams, beat them 28-6. Add it up and the 3-1 Giants have outscored their opponents by three points total.

The roster isn't there. The model rates this roster 30th, and play for play their offense is the worst in football. Vegas sees it too: next week the 3-1 Giants are 3.5-point underdogs at 1-3 Washington, then home underdogs to the 1-3 Saints.

The breaks all went their way. Two of their three wins ended on goal-line interceptions in the last 30 seconds. Up 12-7 on Tennessee, Jevon Holland picked off Cam Ward in the end zone with 24 seconds left. Up six on Arizona, with the Cardinals at the 2-yard line, Deonte Banks picked Jacoby Brissett and ran it back 98 yards. In the opener they fumbled four times and got three of them back.

What if the breaks keep coming? Then a team on its backup quarterback keeps stealing games at the goal line. That's the bet you're making if you believe 3-1.

Why the Raiders are frauds

The Raiders are a good football team. They're plus-31, the 6th-best margin in football once opponents are counted. But three things point to a team about to come back to earth:

Look who they beat. Miami, the Chargers and New Orleans are a combined 1-11. The one good team they've played, Kansas City, beat them.

The roster says otherwise. The model rates this roster 24th in football. A plus-31 margin built on three bad teams doesn't change that.

The schedule is about to get brutal. Starting in Week 6, they get Buffalo and the Rams. Two weeks later, it's San Francisco. Then Seattle, Denver twice and Kansas City later in the season.

Unlike the Giants, the Raiders aren't living on breaks. If they're for real, this is the one team on the board where the scoreboard is right and the roster rankings are wrong. Buffalo and the Rams in Weeks 6 and 7 will settle it.

Why the Texans are due

They're 0-4, and they haven't played well. But the model still rates this roster 9th in football. The record says more about who they've played than who they are.

The losses came to Buffalo, Cincinnati, Indianapolis and Dallas. That's the 5th-toughest schedule so far, and three of the losses were by five points or fewer. Now it flips:

No team has an easier road the rest of the way. Last year, the model called the 1-3 Texans underrated. They went 11-2 from there.

Why the Dolphins and Titans are frauds

A fraud at 0-4 means it can still get worse. For Miami and Tennessee, it probably will.

The Dolphins score 1.2 points a drive, the fewest in football. They've trailed on 90% of their offensive snaps, the most in the league, and they've been outscored by 55. Yes, they've had the 3rd-toughest schedule so far. It doesn't let up: they have the 8th-toughest left.

The Titans went 0-4 against the 3rd-easiest schedule in football. They score 1.35 points a drive (30th). They've trailed on 83% of their offensive snaps (31st). And they're last in takeaways.

That puts both on pace for the top two picks. Here's one way the 2027 draft could go. Miami is on the clock first (not the prize anyone wanted in September, but it's a prize):

Run your own mock draft →

How often is the Fraud Meter right?

Three times out of four. Since 2010, its top three frauds and top three underrated teams after Week 4 were right 75 of 96 times. Over the last two seasons, 9 of 12. Each season was tested on a version of the model that never saw it. Here are all twelve, misses included:

| Year | Team | Call | After Wk 4 | Finished | Result |

|---|---|---|---|---|---|

| 2025 | Bengals | Fraud | 2-2 | 6-11 | Right |

| 2025 | Jaguars | Fraud | 3-1 | 13-4 | Miss |

| 2025 | Giants | Fraud | 1-3 | 4-13 | Right |

| 2025 | Texans | Underrated | 1-3 | 12-5 | Right |

| 2025 | Ravens | Underrated | 1-3 | 8-9 | Right |

| 2025 | Jets | Underrated | 0-4 | 3-14 | Miss |

| 2024 | Raiders | Fraud | 2-2 | 4-13 | Right |

| 2024 | Browns | Fraud | 1-3 | 3-14 | Right |

| 2024 | Bears | Fraud | 2-2 | 5-12 | Right |

| 2024 | Ravens | Underrated | 2-2 | 12-5 | Right |

| 2024 | Bengals | Underrated | 1-3 | 9-8 | Right |

| 2024 | 49ers | Underrated | 2-2 | 6-11 | Miss |

The miss to remember: last year the model had the 3-1 Jaguars as a fraud, and they went 13-4. So the Giants and Raiders are calls, not verdicts.

Updated weekly, proven in January

This week's tests: the 3-1 Raiders are underdogs at New England, and the 3-1 Giants are underdogs at Washington. Win both and the record starts to look real.

The standings will look different by January. When the season ends, we'll pull up this page and grade every call on it, misses included. Until then, the model updates every Wednesday. Your team might be on the stand next week.