The Ledger · 2026 season
Every pick, dated before kickoff. Graded after.
One flat unit on each model play at -110. Losers included. The number goes on the board before the game and the result goes here after it, and nothing in between gets edited.
●Confidence is an edge-size grouping, not a claimed win rate. Our own audit says edge size carries no signal: every bucket lands near 51% across 5,313 past games. We would rather you heard it from us.
Week 1: 16 picks logged on Sep 1, graded after the games
Every Week 1 number was stamped before kickoff (first game Sep 9). This season's picks before they play are the Weekly Lines board; the ledger prints them once they are played.
The 2005 to 2025 seasons are walk-forward backtests (the model only ever saw prior seasons) and live on Weekly Lines under history, labelled as backtests. They do not mix with this page. This week's picks, before they play, are the Weekly Lines board.
See this week's board →