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NFL Hall of Fame Predictions and Tracker

Live Hall of Fame probabilities for every NFL player, updated from our resume-based model. We score each career the way the selection committee does: era-adjusted dominance, All-Pro and MVP honors, championships, and longevity. Every player gets two numbers, the resume they have built so far and a career projection that accounts for where their arc is headed.

Active Players Most Likely to Make the Hall of Fame

The active players whose careers are tracking toward Canton, ranked by projected Hall of Fame probability.

PlayerTeamPosResume NowCareer Projection
Aaron RodgersGBQB100%100%
Patrick MahomesKCQB99%99%
Von MillerDENEDGE98%98%
Bobby WagnerSEALB97%97%
Chris JonesKCIDL97%97%
Travis KelceKCTE96%96%
Tyreek HillKCWR96%96%
Cameron HeywardPITIDL92%94%
Matthew StaffordDETQB92%92%
Davante AdamsGBWR92%92%
Derrick HenryTENRB90%90%
Myles GarrettCLEEDGE90%90%
Christian McCaffreyCARRB77%82%
Philip RiversLACQB78%78%
DeAndre HopkinsHOUWR76%76%
Josh AllenBUFQB50%74%
Russell WilsonSEAQB65%65%
Cameron JordanNOEDGE59%59%
Jared GoffLAQB26%56%
DeForest BucknerINDIDL55%55%
Ja'Marr ChaseCINWR30%53%
Mike EvansTBWR52%52%
Khalil MackLVEDGE51%51%
George KittleSFTE48%50%
Fred WarnerSFLB23%46%

Modern Players Awaiting Canton

Recently retired players with the strongest Hall of Fame cases, ranked by probability.

PlayerTeamPosResume NowCareer Projection
Tom BradyNEQB100%100%
Aaron DonaldLAIDL98%98%
Antonio BrownPITWR95%95%
Adrian PetersonMINRB94%94%
Julio JonesATLWR93%93%
Ben RoethlisbergerPITQB87%87%
Fletcher CoxPHIIDL86%86%
Rob GronkowskiNETE78%78%
Richard ShermanSEADB70%70%
Matt RyanATLQB64%64%
Chandler JonesARIEDGE62%62%
Justin HoustonKCEDGE44%44%
Devin McCourtyNEDB36%36%
Patrick PetersonARIDB32%32%
Gerald McCoyTBIDL31%31%

How the Hall of Fame Model Works

Most Hall of Fame debates are gut feel. Ours is a probability model trained on every enshrined player and the resumes that fell short. It weighs era-adjusted dominance, first and second team All-Pro selections, MVP and major awards, championships, and career length, then outputs a calibrated probability. Resume Now is the case a player has already built. Career Projection adds a realistic estimate of the seasons still ahead.

Frequently Asked Questions

How are Hall of Fame chances calculated?

A model trained on the full history of Hall of Fame selections and snubs. It weighs era-adjusted dominance, All-Pro and MVP honors, championships, and longevity, then outputs a calibrated probability for each player.

Does the projection change during the season?

Yes. As players add production, awards, and seasons, both their current resume and their career projection update.

What does Resume Now mean versus Career Projection?

Resume Now is the Hall of Fame case a player has already earned. Career Projection estimates where they finish if their career continues on a realistic arc.

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