Live Hall of Fame probabilities for every NFL player, updated from our resume-based model. We score each career the way the selection committee does: era-adjusted dominance, All-Pro and MVP honors, championships, and longevity. Every player gets two numbers, the resume they have built so far and a career projection that accounts for where their arc is headed.
The active players whose careers are tracking toward Canton, ranked by projected Hall of Fame probability.
| Player | Team | Pos | Resume Now | Career Projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | QB | 100% | 100% |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | QB | 99% | 99% |
| Von Miller | DEN | EDGE | 98% | 98% |
| Bobby Wagner | SEA | LB | 97% | 97% |
| Chris Jones | KC | IDL | 97% | 97% |
| Travis Kelce | KC | TE | 96% | 96% |
| Tyreek Hill | KC | WR | 96% | 96% |
| Cameron Heyward | PIT | IDL | 92% | 94% |
| Matthew Stafford | DET | QB | 92% | 92% |
| Davante Adams | GB | WR | 92% | 92% |
| Derrick Henry | TEN | RB | 90% | 90% |
| Myles Garrett | CLE | EDGE | 90% | 90% |
| Christian McCaffrey | CAR | RB | 77% | 82% |
| Philip Rivers | LAC | QB | 78% | 78% |
| DeAndre Hopkins | HOU | WR | 76% | 76% |
| Josh Allen | BUF | QB | 50% | 74% |
| Russell Wilson | SEA | QB | 65% | 65% |
| Cameron Jordan | NO | EDGE | 59% | 59% |
| Jared Goff | LA | QB | 26% | 56% |
| DeForest Buckner | IND | IDL | 55% | 55% |
| Ja'Marr Chase | CIN | WR | 30% | 53% |
| Mike Evans | TB | WR | 52% | 52% |
| Khalil Mack | LV | EDGE | 51% | 51% |
| George Kittle | SF | TE | 48% | 50% |
| Fred Warner | SF | LB | 23% | 46% |
Recently retired players with the strongest Hall of Fame cases, ranked by probability.
| Player | Team | Pos | Resume Now | Career Projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | NE | QB | 100% | 100% |
| Aaron Donald | LA | IDL | 98% | 98% |
| Antonio Brown | PIT | WR | 95% | 95% |
| Adrian Peterson | MIN | RB | 94% | 94% |
| Julio Jones | ATL | WR | 93% | 93% |
| Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | QB | 87% | 87% |
| Fletcher Cox | PHI | IDL | 86% | 86% |
| Rob Gronkowski | NE | TE | 78% | 78% |
| Richard Sherman | SEA | DB | 70% | 70% |
| Matt Ryan | ATL | QB | 64% | 64% |
| Chandler Jones | ARI | EDGE | 62% | 62% |
| Justin Houston | KC | EDGE | 44% | 44% |
| Devin McCourty | NE | DB | 36% | 36% |
| Patrick Peterson | ARI | DB | 32% | 32% |
| Gerald McCoy | TB | IDL | 31% | 31% |
Most Hall of Fame debates are gut feel. Ours is a probability model trained on every enshrined player and the resumes that fell short. It weighs era-adjusted dominance, first and second team All-Pro selections, MVP and major awards, championships, and career length, then outputs a calibrated probability. Resume Now is the case a player has already built. Career Projection adds a realistic estimate of the seasons still ahead.
A model trained on the full history of Hall of Fame selections and snubs. It weighs era-adjusted dominance, All-Pro and MVP honors, championships, and longevity, then outputs a calibrated probability for each player.
Yes. As players add production, awards, and seasons, both their current resume and their career projection update.
Resume Now is the Hall of Fame case a player has already earned. Career Projection estimates where they finish if their career continues on a realistic arc.