Tyreek Hill
Miami DolphinsModel Score
How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →
Season Stats
Draft & College
He went about where consensus had him.
STM Take
The 2025 #22 (tier 3) on a partial 10-game sample is misleading because the late-season game log (sub-2 PPR in five of his last seven weeks before injury) shows the bottom dropped out completely. From tier 1 (#1) in 2023 to a single-digit PPR pattern across most of 2025 is the most violent two-year arc on the board. At 31 with injury history and a contract dispute, the post-Hill era in Miami may be starting.
Hill came out of West Alabama as Kansas City's 5th-round pick (165th overall) in 2016. He went on to make six straight Pro Bowls (2016-2021), earn three first-team All-Pro selections, and win Super Bowl LIV. Miami traded for him in 2022 and he immediately posted the league's first 1,800-yard receiving season since 2013 (1,710 actually) in 2023, finishing tier 1 #1 in STTM. The 2024 ankle/wrist issues compressed his role to #47 (tier 6), and 2025 brought a season-ending injury that limited him to 10 games.
Strengths
- Six straight Pro Bowls (2016-2021), three first-team All-Pro selections, and a Super Bowl LIV ring establish a Hall-of-Fame trajectory. The 2023 tier 1 #1 finish with 1,710 receiving yards was the league's highest single-season WR output that year.
- Career speed remains elite when healthy. The Wk 16 2025 15.32 PPR showed the explosion is still in there when the QB is functional and he gets a single-coverage look.
Concerns
- Five 2025 games under 2 PPR before the season-ending injury (-0.1, 0.2, 1.7, 1.7, 2) is the worst stretch of his career. The arc from #1 (tier 1) in 2023 to this is a fundamental shift.
- Age 31 plus the documented 2024-2025 ankle and wrist issues plus the trade-request and contract noise during 2024 has compounded into a market where Miami may already be looking past him.
What to watch: Whether Miami trades him or eats the cap hit before the 2026 season, because the on-field sample says the relationship and the production are both effectively over.