Khalil Mack
Los Angeles ChargersOVERPAIDModel Score
How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →
Season Stats · 12 games
Draft & College
He went about where consensus had him.
Comps
STM Take
Nine Pro Bowls plus three 1st-team All-Pros plus the 2016 DPOY plus 100+ career sacks puts Mack in the conversation as the best edge defender of his generation behind Aaron Donald and J.J. Watt. The Buffalo MAC origin plus the Hall-of-Fame trajectory makes him one of the highest-pedigree edge careers of the modern era. The 2026 question is whether Mack extends through age 35 or whether the structural age-related decline finally closes the elite chapter.
Mack came out of Buffalo as the Oakland Raiders' 1st-round pick (5th overall) in 2014 and has made nine Pro Bowls (2015-2020, 2022, 2023) plus three 1st-team All-Pros, winning the 2016 NFL Defensive Player of the Year as the youngest DPOY in history at that time. He has crossed 100 career sacks across 12 NFL seasons and is on a Hall-of-Fame trajectory. His STTM career runs tier 1 (#5) peak in 2018, tier 6 (#41) in 2022, tier 1 (#3) bounce-back in 2023, tier 5 (#35) in 2024, and tier 4 (#28) in 2025 at age 34.
Strengths
- Nine Pro Bowls plus three 1st-team All-Pros plus 2016 DPOY plus 100+ career sacks establishes a Hall-of-Fame edge defender résumé.
- 2023 tier 1 (#3) bounce-back after the 2022 tier 6 dip proves the elite ceiling is reachable in the late-prime chapter.
Concerns
- Career STTM volatility (tier 6 in 2022, tier 1 in 2023, tier 5 in 2024, tier 4 in 2025) confirms the ceiling is highly scheme- and team-fit dependent.
- Age 34 plus 12 years of pass-rush wear puts the late-career structural decline question on every 2026 projection.
What to watch: Whether Mack earns his tenth Pro Bowl in 2026 plus holds tier 3 or better, the threshold for closing the Hall-of-Fame résumé case.