Josh Allen
Buffalo BillsJosh Allen has 1,793 passing yards, 11 touchdown passes, 5 interceptions and 270 rushing yards in 7 games for the Buffalo Bills this season through Week 8, 26.8 PPR points a game (updated November 6, 2026).
Model Score by season
A career-high 99.0 this season, up from 96.0.
How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →
STM Take
An elite quarterback whose rushing floor carries the whole profile.
The case for
- Rushing-TD profile is the best in the position's history: 79 career, 15 in a single season in 2023, and that floor stabilizes fantasy output even when the passing game stalls.
- Tier 1 STTM rank in four of the last five years plus the 2024 MVP, so the year-over-year variance other top QBs carry is largely absent here.
The worry
- Passing volume has compressed three years running: 275.5 YPG in 2023 down to 262.6 in 2024 and 246.9 in 2025, the lowest of his tier-1 stretch.
- Interceptions per game jumped from 0.38 in 2024 to 0.62 in 2025, dropping his INT rank to the bottom half of qualified starters despite the MVP context.
What to watch: Whether Buffalo's 2026 pass-catcher mix forces the offense back over 260 passing YPG, because the rushing floor cannot keep masking a third straight year of compressed dropbacks.
Full take and bio
Allen has held tier 1 every year since 2023 and sits STTM #2 in 2025, so the profile is no longer about ceiling but about which Bills offense shows up around him. The 2024 MVP case is fully priced in; the 2025 read is a quarterback whose passing volume keeps compressing inside Buffalo's run-leaning game scripts. He is still the safest top-three QB bet given the rushing floor, but the gap between him and a clean QB1 is now built on rushing TDs, not arm-talent dominance.
Allen grew up on a 3,000-acre cotton farm in Firebaugh, California, drew zero Division I scholarship offers out of high school, and worked his way from Reedley College to Wyoming before Buffalo took him seventh overall in the 2018 NFL Draft. He has since become the defining dual-threat quarterback of his era: 2024 NFL MVP, four Pro Bowls, two second-team All-Pro nods, and five straight AFC East titles. He owns the all-time records for career rushing touchdowns by a quarterback (79) and highest single-postseason passer rating (149.0 in 2021). At 30, he remains the centerpiece of a Bills offense that has reached two conference championship games.
Comps
The players whose size, testing and production looked most like his at the same point in their careers. The percent is how close.
Plays like: Warren Moon, Rich Gannon, Daunte Culpepper. Built like: Carson Wentz, Sage Rosenfels, Charlie Whitehurst. Coming out: EJ Manuel, Logan Thomas, DeShone Kizer.
Of his 20 closest coming out: 1 star, 6 starters, 9 backups, 4 didn't stick.
Josh Allen Props This Weekat MIN Mon Nov 9
| Market | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 236.5 | -113 DraftKings | -111 DraftKings |
| Passing TDs | 1.5 | +132 DraftKings | -164 BetOnline |
| Completions | 20.5 | -115 Fanatics | -106 BetOnline |
| Pass attempts | 30.5 | -111 BetMGM | -104 DraftKings |
| Interceptions | 0.5 | +110 BetOnline | -135 Bovada |
| Rushing yards | 29.5 | -111 DraftKings | -113 DraftKings |
| Carries | 7.5 | +110 Bovada | -135 BetMGM |
| Anytime TD | -120 BetMGM |
Best price across 9 books as of Thu Nov 5. Lines move; check the book before you bet. This week's board · Line Room
Play Josh's numbers on Underdog · partner link
Josh Allen Injury StatusNot listed
Josh Allen is not on the injury report as of Nov 6. Source: the official NFL injury report, refreshed daily.
This season · 7 games
26.8 fantasy points a game, 188 PPR on the season. Every game on the Game Log, every season on Career. Advanced numbers are EPA and Next Gen Stats.
Contract2026 cap
Every year of the deal, the dead money and what a cut or trade saves on the Contract tab.
Fantasy outlookWeek 9
Our rest-of-season board has Josh Allen at QB1; the model has 220 PPR points left for him this season; this week he visits MIN.
Price a trade for him on the fantasy trade calculator, or see the whole board on the Fantasy hub.
Draft & College
Round 1, pick 7 to the Buffalo Bills in 2018, out of Wyoming (Mountain West). He went about where consensus had him.
In college, 2016-2017, 24 games: 4,647 pass yds, 45 TD, 20 INT, 52.1% completions. Coming out: 4.75s 40 yd, 33.5" vertical, 119" broad, 6.9s 3-cone, 4.4s shuttle.
Recruited
Class of 2015 · Quarterback · Junior college: Reedley College, Reedley, CA
WyomingHis full list of offers is not on our record yet; offers for the 2015 class are still being added.