Josh Allen

Buffalo Bills·#17

Pos QBHt 6'5"Wt 237 lbExp 7 yrCollege Wyoming

QB rankings →

Model Score

85.9 MODEL

2020

87.1

2021

82.3

2022

83.9

2023

84.1

2024

87.9

2025

85.9

How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →

Season Stats · 16 games

3,66811th

Pass Yds

259th

Pass TD

1028th

INT

69.5%3rd

Comp %

5791st

Rush Yds

141st

Rush TD

23.01st

Fantasy PPG

Advanced Metrics EPA & Next Gen Stats

81.26th

Total EPA

0.12111th

EPA / dropback

2.87s

Time to throw

6.9

Avg air yards

11.7%

Aggressiveness

56 yd11th

Longest comp (air)

STM Take

Allen has held tier 1 every year since 2023 and sits STTM #2 in 2025, so the profile is no longer about ceiling but about which Bills offense shows up around him. The 2024 MVP case is fully priced in; the 2025 read is a quarterback whose passing volume keeps compressing inside Buffalo's run-leaning game scripts. He is still the safest top-three QB bet given the rushing floor, but the gap between him and a clean QB1 is now built on rushing TDs, not arm-talent dominance.

Allen grew up on a 3,000-acre cotton farm in Firebaugh, California, drew zero Division I scholarship offers out of high school, and worked his way from Reedley College to Wyoming before Buffalo took him seventh overall in the 2018 NFL Draft. He has since become the defining dual-threat quarterback of his era: 2024 NFL MVP, four Pro Bowls, two second-team All-Pro nods, and five straight AFC East titles. He owns the all-time records for career rushing touchdowns by a quarterback (79) and highest single-postseason passer rating (149.0 in 2021). At 30, he remains the centerpiece of a Bills offense that has reached two conference championship games.

Strengths

Rushing-TD profile is the best in the position's history: 79 career, 15 in a single season in 2023, and that floor stabilizes fantasy output even when the passing game stalls.
Tier 1 STTM rank in four of the last five years plus the 2024 MVP, so the year-over-year variance other top QBs carry is largely absent here.

Concerns

Passing volume has compressed three years running: 275.5 YPG in 2023 down to 262.6 in 2024 and 246.9 in 2025, the lowest of his tier-1 stretch.
Interceptions per game jumped from 0.38 in 2024 to 0.62 in 2025, dropping his INT rank to the bottom half of qualified starters despite the MVP context.

What to watch: Whether Buffalo's 2026 pass-catcher mix forces the offense back over 260 passing YPG, because the rushing floor cannot keep masking a third straight year of compressed dropbacks.