Josh Allen

Buffalo Bills·#17

Pos QBHt 6'5"Wt 237 lbExp 8 yrCollege Wyoming

Updated September 22, 2026

QB rankings →

Model Score

99.0 MODEL

2018

78.7

2019

78.7

2020

93.0

2021

93.0

2022

96.0

2023

94.2

2024

93.0

2025

99.0

How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →

Josh Allen Props This Weekvs LAC Sun Sep 27

Market	Line	Over	Under
Anytime TD		-140 DraftKings

Best price across 9 books as of Mon Sep 21. Lines move; check the book before you bet. This week's board · Line Room

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Josh Allen Injury StatusNot listed

Josh Allen is not on the injury report as of Sep 22. Source: the official NFL injury report, refreshed daily.

Josh Allen Stats This Season · 2 games

582

Pass Yds

Pass TD

INT

66.7%

Comp %

Rush Yds

Rush TD

38.2

Fantasy PPG

Advanced Metrics EPA & Next Gen Stats

28.6

Total EPA

0.455

EPA / dropback

2.97s

Time to throw

10.2

Avg air yards

6.7%

Aggressiveness

44 yd

Longest comp (air)

Draft & College

Round 1, pick 7 · Buffalo Bills · 2018

Wyoming (Mountain West)

Taken

where he actually went

Consensus board

9th

average of the public big boards that spring

Our college model

#394

among QB in our college data

He went about where consensus had him.

In college · 2016-2017 · 24 games

4,400 pass yds, 41 TD, 20 INT, 52.1% completions

Covers the college seasons in our data, which does not always reach back to a player's first year.

Coming out

4.75s

40 yd

33.5"

Vertical

119"

Broad

6.9s

3-cone

4.4s

Shuttle

Comps

College career

his college career vs theirs

Thomas Woodson91%Malik Willis86%Ben Hicks86%

STM Take

Allen has held tier 1 every year since 2023 and sits STTM #2 in 2025, so the profile is no longer about ceiling but about which Bills offense shows up around him. The 2024 MVP case is fully priced in; the 2025 read is a quarterback whose passing volume keeps compressing inside Buffalo's run-leaning game scripts. He is still the safest top-three QB bet given the rushing floor, but the gap between him and a clean QB1 is now built on rushing TDs, not arm-talent dominance.

Allen grew up on a 3,000-acre cotton farm in Firebaugh, California, drew zero Division I scholarship offers out of high school, and worked his way from Reedley College to Wyoming before Buffalo took him seventh overall in the 2018 NFL Draft. He has since become the defining dual-threat quarterback of his era: 2024 NFL MVP, four Pro Bowls, two second-team All-Pro nods, and five straight AFC East titles. He owns the all-time records for career rushing touchdowns by a quarterback (79) and highest single-postseason passer rating (149.0 in 2021). At 30, he remains the centerpiece of a Bills offense that has reached two conference championship games.

Strengths

Rushing-TD profile is the best in the position's history: 79 career, 15 in a single season in 2023, and that floor stabilizes fantasy output even when the passing game stalls.
Tier 1 STTM rank in four of the last five years plus the 2024 MVP, so the year-over-year variance other top QBs carry is largely absent here.

Concerns

Passing volume has compressed three years running: 275.5 YPG in 2023 down to 262.6 in 2024 and 246.9 in 2025, the lowest of his tier-1 stretch.
Interceptions per game jumped from 0.38 in 2024 to 0.62 in 2025, dropping his INT rank to the bottom half of qualified starters despite the MVP context.

What to watch: Whether Buffalo's 2026 pass-catcher mix forces the offense back over 260 passing YPG, because the rushing floor cannot keep masking a third straight year of compressed dropbacks.