Patrick Mahomes

Kansas City Chiefs·#15

Pos QBHt 6'2"Wt 230 lbExp 8 yrCollege Texas Tech

QB rankings →

Model Score

83.4 MODEL

2018

85.3

2019

90.3

2020

93.4

2021

92.1

2022

99.0

2023

86.7

2024

86.3

2025

83.4

How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →

Season Stats · 14 games

3,58712th

Pass Yds

2217th

Pass TD

1133rd

INT

63.0%29th

Comp %

4225th

Rush Yds

55th

Rush TD

20.14th

Fantasy PPG

Advanced Metrics EPA & Next Gen Stats

68.28th

Total EPA

0.1278th

EPA / dropback

2.79s

Time to throw

7.9

Avg air yards

13.1%

Aggressiveness

59 yd6th

Longest comp (air)

STM Take

Mahomes has now finished STTM #9 tier 3 three years in a row, which is the same tier as his 2023 line and well off his back-to-back #1/#2 peak. The Chiefs' regular-season passing profile has genuinely compressed; the postseason ceiling is what it has always been, but rankings are built off regular-season volume and that part has flattened. The case for him as the top QB now lives entirely in January.

Mahomes was born in Tyler, Texas and went to Texas Tech, where he led the FBS in passing yards and total touchdowns and won the Sammy Baugh Trophy. Kansas City took him tenth overall in 2017, and he became the starter in 2018 after the Alex Smith trade. He owns three Super Bowl titles, three Super Bowl MVPs, two regular-season MVPs (2018, 2022), six Pro Bowls, and the NFL career record for passing yards per game at 286.8. He led the Chiefs to seven straight AFC Championship Games before falling short of a three-peat in Super Bowl LIX.

Strengths

Career 286.8 passing yards per game is an NFL record, and his postseason resume has no current parallel.
Tier 3 floor through three years post-peak is still better than half the league's ceiling.

Concerns

Three straight years at STTM #9 tier 3 means the regular-season volume case is flat, not improving with the new pass-catcher rebuild.
Pass-catcher room has churned over multiple offseasons and the YPA hasn't recovered toward his 2018-2022 levels.

What to watch: Whether the latest KC pass-catcher rebuild finally lifts depth-of-target back toward his peak years, because the rushing component cannot carry the rank.