Week 2 · Saturday, September 12 · 6:00 PM ET
Buffalo at 
Florida International
Florida International -10.2At Florida International · Mid-American · Conference USA
Total 47.8
Total 47.8
The read
Florida International is favored by 10.2 at home against Buffalo, and the total is 47.8. Our number has Florida International by 2.9, so the lean is Buffalo +10.2. A lean, not a play. Florida International is 8-10 against the spread at home since 2022, worse than the 18-13 they are everywhere else.
Spread
Florida International -10.2Buffalo +10.2
Total
47.8Over and under
Moneyline
Florida International -427.5Buffalo +325
Our number vs the market
The lean
Buffalo +10.2A lean, not a play
Our number
Florida International by 2.9Market has Buffalo +10.2
Gap
7.3 ptsBetween our number and the market
College is leans only. The model has no proven edge against the spread here, so this is where we disagree with the market, not a bet we are telling you to make.
How each team covers in this spot
BuffaloBuffalo is 4-6 against the spread with more rest than the opponent since 2022.
4 of 10, 40% in this spot
20 of 38, 53% in every other spot
Buffalo is 14-11 against the spread as an underdog since 2022.
14 of 25, 56% in this spot
10 of 23, 43% in every other spot
Florida InternationalFlorida International is 8-10 against the spread at home since 2022.
8 of 18, 44% in this spot
18 of 31, 58% in every other spot
Florida International is 6-7 against the spread as a favorite since 2022.
6 of 13, 46% in this spot
20 of 36, 56% in every other spot
Against the opening number, 2022 through 2025, pushes left out. Only the conditions that are true of this game, and only where the team has at least 8 games in the spot. The second bar is the same team everywhere else.