Duke at 
Illinois
Total 53.5
Illinois is favored by 6.2 at home against Duke, and the total is 53.5. Our number has Illinois by 3.6, so the lean is Duke +6.2. A lean, not a play. Illinois is 13-13 against the spread at home since 2022, worse than the 15-8 they are everywhere else.
Our number vs the market
College is leans only. The model has no proven edge against the spread here, so this is where we disagree with the market, not a bet we are telling you to make.
How each team covers in this spot
DukeIllinoisAgainst the opening number, 2022 through 2025, pushes left out. Only the conditions that are true of this game, and only where the team has at least 8 games in the spot. The second bar is the same team everywhere else.
Player trends that apply to this game
Nate SheppardRB has 6 of his last 6 games on the road with 50+ rushing yards.Katin HouserQB has 8 of his last 10 games at home with 2+ passing touchdowns.The second number is the point. Everyone posts the first one. Game logs through 2025; this season joins the file as it is played.