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Week 2 · Saturday, September 12 · 7:30 PM ET

Navy at Florida Atlantic

Navy -5.5At Florida Atlantic · American Athletic
Total 59.2
The read

Navy is favored by 5.5 on the road against Florida Atlantic, and the total is 59.2. Our number has Navy by 12.2, so the lean is Navy -5.5. A lean, not a play. Navy is 13-6 against the spread on the road since 2022, better than the 12-18 they are everywhere else.

Spread
Navy -5.5
Florida Atlantic +5.5
Total
59.2
Over and under
Moneyline
Florida Atlantic +182.5
Navy -221.5

Our number vs the market

The lean
Navy -5.5
A lean, not a play
Our number
Navy by 12.2
Market has Navy -5.5
Gap
6.7 pts
Between our number and the market

College is leans only. The model has no proven edge against the spread here, so this is where we disagree with the market, not a bet we are telling you to make.

How each team covers in this spot

Navy
Navy is 13-6 against the spread on the road since 2022.
13 of 19, 68% in this spot
12 of 30, 40% in every other spot
Navy is 10-15 against the spread as a favorite since 2022.
10 of 25, 40% in this spot
15 of 24, 62% in every other spot
Florida Atlantic
Florida Atlantic is 14-14 against the spread coming off a loss since 2022.
14 of 28, 50% in this spot
7 of 19, 37% in every other spot
Florida Atlantic is 13-15 against the spread as an underdog since 2022.
13 of 28, 46% in this spot
8 of 19, 42% in every other spot

Against the opening number, 2022 through 2025, pushes left out. Only the conditions that are true of this game, and only where the team has at least 8 games in the spot. The second bar is the same team everywhere else.

Player trends that apply to this game

Blake HorvathQB has 6 of his last 6 games on the road as a favorite with 50+ rushing yards.
6 of 6, 100% in this spot · 2024-2025
11 of 22, 50% in every other spot
Alex TeczaRB has 8 of his last 10 games in conference play with 50+ rushing yards.
8 of 10, 80% in this spot · 2024-2025
3 of 12, 25% in every other spot

The second number is the point. Everyone posts the first one. Game logs through 2025; this season joins the file as it is played.