Week 2 · Saturday, September 12 · 12:00 PM ET
Oklahoma at 
Michigan
Oklahoma -5.8At Michigan · SEC · Big Ten
Total 43.2
Total 43.2
The read
Oklahoma is favored by 5.8 on the road against Michigan, and the total is 43.2. Our number has Oklahoma by 2.4, so the lean is Michigan +5.8. A lean, not a play. Michigan is 11-17 against the spread at home since 2022, worse than the 16-10 they are everywhere else.
Spread
Oklahoma -5.8Michigan +5.8
Total
43.2Over and under
Moneyline
Michigan +185Oklahoma -224
Our number vs the market
The lean
Michigan +5.8A lean, not a play
Our number
Oklahoma by 2.4Market has Michigan +5.8
Gap
3.4 ptsBetween our number and the market
College is leans only. The model has no proven edge against the spread here, so this is where we disagree with the market, not a bet we are telling you to make.
How each team covers in this spot
OklahomaOklahoma is 4-7 against the spread with more rest than the opponent since 2022.
4 of 11, 36% in this spot
21 of 40, 52% in every other spot
Oklahoma is 9-8 against the spread on the road since 2022.
9 of 17, 53% in this spot
16 of 34, 47% in every other spot
MichiganMichigan is 11-17 against the spread at home since 2022.
11 of 28, 39% in this spot
16 of 26, 62% in every other spot
Michigan is 5-7 against the spread as an underdog since 2022.
5 of 12, 42% in this spot
22 of 42, 52% in every other spot
Against the opening number, 2022 through 2025, pushes left out. Only the conditions that are true of this game, and only where the team has at least 8 games in the spot. The second bar is the same team everywhere else.