Week 2 · Saturday, September 12 · 12:00 PM ET
South Florida at 
Army
Army -3.5At Army · American Athletic
Total 48.8
Total 48.8
The read
Army is favored by 3.5 at home against South Florida, and the total is 48.8. Our number has South Florida by 3.2, so the lean is South Florida +3.5. A lean, not a play. Army is 8-15 against the spread at home since 2022, worse than the 19-7 they are everywhere else.
Spread
Army -3.5South Florida +3.5
Total
48.8Over and under
Moneyline
Army -180South Florida +152
Our number vs the market
The lean
South Florida +3.5A lean, not a play
Our number
South Florida by 3.2Market has South Florida +3.5
Gap
6.7 ptsBetween our number and the market
College is leans only. The model has no proven edge against the spread here, so this is where we disagree with the market, not a bet we are telling you to make.
How each team covers in this spot
South FloridaSouth Florida is 14-10 against the spread on the road since 2022.
14 of 24, 58% in this spot
12 of 25, 48% in every other spot
South Florida is 16-12 against the spread as an underdog since 2022.
16 of 28, 57% in this spot
10 of 21, 48% in every other spot
ArmyArmy is 8-15 against the spread at home since 2022.
8 of 23, 35% in this spot
19 of 26, 73% in every other spot
Army is 15-14 against the spread as a favorite since 2022.
15 of 29, 52% in this spot
12 of 20, 60% in every other spot
Against the opening number, 2022 through 2025, pushes left out. Only the conditions that are true of this game, and only where the team has at least 8 games in the spot. The second bar is the same team everywhere else.