Arch Manning
Texas#2 overallDraft Movement
Down 1 spot since Jun 8
Scouting Report
Arch Manning is the most discussed quarterback in the 2027 NFL Draft class and a player widely regarded as arguably the nation's most discussed player after a poll of 20 evaluators last summer. Listed at 6'4" and 219-222 pounds, Manning entered Texas as the top-ranked quarterback recruit in the 2023 class and carries the obvious bloodlines as Archie's grandson and Peyton and Eli's nephew. The 2025 starting debut was uneven: a flat opener against Ohio State, an inexplicable struggle against UTEP, then a strong stretch capped by a 17-point fourth-quarter comeback at Mississippi State (29-of-46, 346 yards, 4 total TDs). He finished the regular season 227-of-370 (61.4%) for 2,942 yards, 24 passing TDs and 7 INTs with 8 rushing scores. His 71.5% adjusted completion rate ranked 100th among FBS qualifiers and he's been top-40 in big-time throw rate, turnover-worthy play rate and aDOT, an aggressive thrower whose tape splits sharply by opponent quality (9.2 YPA vs. lesser P5/G5 teams; 5.4 YPA vs. bowl-bound P5/9-win G5 teams). The arm talent and flexibility in the throwing slot are real, the platform is clean when he trusts the mechanics, and the 4.5-speed-flashing legs give Sarkisian a Jayden-Daniels-lite designed-run package. He graded as a top-five quarterback with a J.J. McCarthy comp and a Round 2 placement on the 2026 board before he opted to return. He landed on early top-50 boards, and analysts argued he can still be QB1 in 2027 after staying. Scouts unanimously want more starts; the family historically prefers four-year arcs, and he's projected for a top-5 QB grade entering 2026.
The Tape
Strengths
- Prototypical 6'4"/219-222 frame with a well-built lower half and mechanics scouts call 'picture-perfect' when he stays disciplined
- Quick over-the-top delivery with NFL arm strength to drive throws into tight windows
- Aggressive downfield thrower at 10.0 air yards per attempt with 15 of 61 completions of 20+ yards in 2024
- Top-40 FBS PFF big-time throw rate and aDOT, willing to test the third sector of the field
- Designed-run weapon and scramble threat with 4.5 speed
- 67-yard run vs. UTSA plus 26-yard burst at Mississippi State
- Pocket twitch and edge-pressure navigation to reset feet and find lanes
- Composure and command of the offense even in his SEC debut (26-of-31, 325, 2 TD vs. Miss State)
Weaknesses
- Only 12 career starts entering 2026
- scouts view roughly 25 as the minimum benchmark for a draft-ready QB
- 60.9% completion rate and 71.5% adjusted completion rate ranked No. 100 in FBS in 2025
- Mechanics break down too often, abandons base and platform even in clean pockets on quick concepts
- Slow processor on multi-step progressions
- locks onto primary read and stares down first option per scouting evaluations
- Drops eyes under pressure and bails clean pockets prematurely
- evaluators compare him to early-career Jayden Daniels
NFL Comparison
J.J. McCarthy (similar frame and play style); Jayden Daniels (4.5 speed, QB run threat, same eyes-down-under-pressure tell); Drew Lock (cautionary parallel, boom/bust splits by opponent quality)
College Stats
2024 (backup): 939 pass yds, 9 TD, 2 INT in 10 G; 25 carries, 108 yds, 4 rush TD. 2025 (RS-So, starter): 227/370 (61.4%), 2,942 yds, 24 pass TD, 7 INT; 244 rush yds, 8 rush TD; 10.0 aDOT 2024; top-40 PFF BTT/TWP rates; 71.5% adj-comp (No. 100 FBS).
College Market Value
Our model prices him at $5.96M on the open college market, built from production, pedigree, role and Texas's program money. No credible deal has been reported for him this season.
The college fantasy model projects 17.8 PPG (QB12), after 19.4 PPG across 13 games last year.
Every P4 player priced, math public: College players & NIL · Roster spend
Measurables
Awards & Honors
Widely regarded as a preseason QB1 in the 2026 cycle before returning to school; graded as a top-45 overall prospect and top-5 quarterback with a second-round projection before withdrawal; appeared on early top-50 draft boards; projected as a QB1 contender for 2027 by evaluators; carries a projected top-5 QB grade in the 2027 class; No. 1 overall recruit in the 2023 class; projected as an all-QB top-5 pick in early 2027 mocks.