Aidan Chiles

QB·

Northwestern#311 overall

★★★★ recruitMichigan State → NorthwesternModel Score 68.5

Updated August 24, 2026

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Draft Movement

#272 · Jun 8#311 · now

Down 39 spots since Jun 8

Scouting Report

Aidan Chiles is a 6'3", 225-pound junior quarterback from Long Beach, California who enters his final collegiate season at Northwestern after two years at Michigan State and one at Oregon State. A consensus four-star recruit out of Downey High School in the class of 2023, Chiles dominated California prep football as a senior, completing over 73% of his throws for 3,350 yards and 38 touchdowns while leading Downey to a 12-3 record and a CIF Southern Section Championship appearance, earning a spot in the All-American Bowl. He arrived at Oregon State as a freshman backup behind DJ Uiagalelei in 2023, flashing efficiency by completing nearly 69% of his passes without an interception across nine appearances. Those glimpses convinced head coach Jonathan Smith to bring Chiles along when he departed for Michigan State, where he immediately won the starting job and was named team captain as a sophomore. His 2024 debut as a full-time starter produced mixed results across 12 starts, finishing with 2,415 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions on 59% completion. Chiles was pressured on 42.3% of his dropbacks, the eighth-highest rate in the FBS, which contributed to his early-season turnover troubles. However, he posted an 8-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio over the final half of the campaign, and his 363-yard, three-touchdown performance against Maryland stands as the eighth-best single-game passing effort in Michigan State history. The draw throughout his profile is a rare, elite arm that generates explosive ball velocity, allowing him to access throws 60-plus yards downfield, rip seam balls into tight windows, and attack the far hash with confidence. Scouts note his passes carry good zip without losing velocity downfield and praise his defensive-reading growth from Oregon State to Michigan State. The primary concerns are accuracy and decision-making, as Chiles' completion percentage of 59% in 2024 reflects struggles with short and intermediate throws, and he fu

Strengths

Elite arm velocity that does not diminish on deep throws, accessing throws 60-plus yards downfield
quick release and smooth throwing motion with experience taking snaps under center
pocket management and ability to climb the pocket, step up, and reset for throws within structure
uses pump fakes to hold or move defenders and works to backside routes with good timing
flashes of anticipatory passing and pro-style tendencies rare for an inexperienced starter
contact balance and mobility to extend plays, move the pocket, and throw comfortably on the run
leadership qualities that earned him team captain status as a sophomore
marked improvement in decision-making in second half of 2024, posting 8-to-3 TD-to-INT ratio over final six games

Weaknesses

Accuracy inconsistency, particularly on short and intermediate throws, completing only 59% in 2024 with erratic ball placement over the middle
poor ball security, with 11 interceptions and 6 fumbles in 2024 and 21 turnovers across 20 starts
eye discipline issues, tipping off defenders and occasionally locking onto a single target
poor decisions under pressure, forcing throws into tight coverage and displaying arm arrogance on contested windows
inconsistent footwork mechanics that affect accuracy under pressure and off-platform
reluctance to take checkdowns, favoring big-play hunting over efficient completions
pressured on 42.3% of dropbacks in 2024 (8th highest in FBS), leading to compounding turnover issues
foot injury ended his 2024 season early, raising durability questions

NFL Comparison

Cameron Ward (pre-breakout Washington State profile, with similar raw arm talent and developing pro-style tendencies in a rebuild); Anthony Richardson (raw, high-variance quarterback with elite physical tools and significant consistency concerns)

College Stats

2023 (Fr, Oregon State): 9 appearances as backup, ~69% completion, 0 INT (limited action); 2024 (So, Michigan State): 2,415 pass yards, 13 TD, 11 INT, 59% completion, 225 rush yards, 3 rush TD, 12 starts

College Market Value

Model Price

$2.15M

Our model prices him at $2.15M on the open college market, built from production, pedigree, role and Northwestern's program money. No credible deal has been reported for him this season.

Portal: transferred from Michigan State to Northwestern for 2026.

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