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Week 3 · Saturday, September 19 · 12:00 PM ET

Arizona State at Kansas

Arizona State -5.5Neutral site · Big 12
Total 50.5
The read

Arizona State is favored by 5.5 on a neutral field against Kansas, and the total is 50.5. Our number has Kansas by 0.7, so the lean is Kansas +5.5. A lean, not a play. Arizona State has gone over 7 of 10 in conference play when our model fades them, 2023-2026, better than the 12-17 they are everywhere else.

Spread
Arizona State -5.5
Kansas +5.5
Total
50.5
Over and under
Moneyline
Kansas +185
Arizona State -227.5

Our number vs the market

The lean
Kansas +5.5
A lean, not a play
Our number
Kansas by 0.7
Market has Kansas +5.5
Gap
6.2 pts
Between our number and the market

College is leans only. The model has no proven edge against the spread here, so this is where we disagree with the market, not a bet we are telling you to make.

How each team covers in this spot

Arizona State
Arizona State has gone over 7 of 10 in conference play when our model fades them, 2023-2026.
7 of 10, 70% in this spot
12 of 29, 41% in every other spot
Arizona State has covered 12 of 16 coming off a loss, 2023-2026.
12 of 16, 75% in this spot
10 of 21, 48% in every other spot
Kansas
Nothing about this spot has moved their cover rate. That is a finding too.

Against the spread and the total, the last three seasons plus this one, pushes left out. Only the conditions that are true of this game, only where the team has at least 8 games in the spot, and only where the team beats the whole league in that spot. The second bar is the same team everywhere else.

Arizona State →Kansas →
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