Model trends · 2026
NFL Week 2 Model Trends, 2026
Logged before kickoff, graded after the game. Every item opens its game.
Model trends
Prop spots at the posted line, player and team trends in the spot this week puts them in, and first-quarter tells, in confidence order. The number is confidence, 0 to 100: the record after shrinking for sample size, how many signals agree, and how far our number sits from the market. The bright bar is this spot, the faded bar is everywhere else.
49IND have covered 7 of 9 outdoors when our model likes them
The 9 games
| Game | Spot | Stat | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 wk 15 | at SEA | yes | |
| 2025 wk 12 | at KC | yes | |
| 2024 wk 11 | at NYJ | yes | |
| 2024 wk 6 | at TEN | yes | |
| 2024 wk 5 | at JAX | yes | |
| 2023 wk 14 | at CIN | no | |
| 2023 wk 9 | at CAR | yes | |
| 2023 wk 6 | at JAX | no | |
| 2023 wk 3 | at BAL | yes |
48IND have covered 10 of 14 on the road when our model likes them
The 14 games
| Game | Spot | Stat | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 wk 18 | at HOU | yes | |
| 2025 wk 15 | at SEA | yes | |
| 2025 wk 12 | at KC | yes | |
| 2025 wk 7 | at LAC | yes | |
| 2025 wk 4 | at LA | no | |
| 2024 wk 11 | at NYJ | yes | |
| 2024 wk 8 | at HOU | yes | |
| 2024 wk 6 | at TEN | yes | |
| 2024 wk 5 | at JAX | yes | |
| 2023 wk 16 | at ATL | no | |
| 2023 wk 14 | at CIN | no | |
| 2023 wk 9 | at CAR | yes | |
| 2023 wk 6 | at JAX | no | |
| 2023 wk 3 | at BAL | yes |
45NYG have gone over 12 of 16 as an underdog of 7 or more
The 16 games
| Game | Spot | Stat | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 wk 13 | at NE | yes | |
| 2025 wk 12 | at DET | yes | |
| 2025 wk 11 | at GB | yes | |
| 2025 wk 8 | at PHI | yes | |
| 2025 wk 7 | at DEN | yes | |
| 2025 wk 6 | at PHI | yes | |
| 2024 wk 17 | at IND | yes | |
| 2024 wk 16 | at ATL | no | |
| 2024 wk 15 | at BAL | yes | |
| 2024 wk 5 | at SEA | yes | |
| 2023 wk 16 | at PHI | yes | |
| 2023 wk 11 | at WAS | yes | |
| 2023 wk 10 | at DAL | yes | |
| 2023 wk 6 | at BUF | no | |
| 2023 wk 5 | at MIA | no | |
| 2023 wk 3 | at SF | no |
45GB have gone over 9 of 10 on the road when our model fades them
The 10 games
| Game | Spot | Stat | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 wk 15 | at DEN | yes | |
| 2025 wk 13 | at DET | yes | |
| 2025 wk 11 | at NYG | yes | |
| 2025 wk 8 | at PIT | yes | |
| 2025 wk 7 | at ARI | yes | |
| 2025 wk 4 | at DAL | yes | |
| 2025 wk 3 | at CLE | no | |
| 2024 wk 8 | at JAX | yes | |
| 2023 wk 17 | at MIN | yes | |
| 2023 wk 14 | at NYG | yes |
44ARI have gone over 18 of 25 at home
The 25 games
| Game | Spot | Stat | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 wk 16 | at ATL | no | |
| 2025 wk 14 | at LA | yes | |
| 2025 wk 12 | at JAX | yes | |
| 2025 wk 11 | at SF | yes | |
| 2025 wk 7 | at GB | yes | |
| 2025 wk 5 | at TEN | yes | |
| 2025 wk 4 | at SEA | no | |
| 2025 wk 2 | at CAR | yes | |
| 2024 wk 18 | at SF | yes | |
| 2024 wk 15 | at NE | yes | |
| 2024 wk 14 | at SEA | yes | |
| 2024 wk 10 | at NYJ | no | |
| 2024 wk 9 | at CHI | no | |
| 2024 wk 7 | at LAC | no | |
| 2024 wk 4 | at WAS | yes | |
| 2024 wk 3 | at DET | no | |
| 2024 wk 2 | at LA | yes | |
| 2023 wk 18 | at SEA | no | |
| 2023 wk 15 | at SF | yes | |
| 2023 wk 12 | at LA | yes | |
| 2023 wk 10 | at ATL | yes | |
| 2023 wk 8 | at BAL | yes | |
| 2023 wk 5 | at CIN | yes | |
| 2023 wk 3 | at DAL | yes | |
| 2023 wk 2 | at NYG | yes |
49IND have covered 7 of 9 outdoors when our model likes them
The 9 games
| Game | Spot | Stat | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 wk 15 | at SEA | yes | |
| 2025 wk 12 | at KC | yes | |
| 2024 wk 11 | at NYJ | yes | |
| 2024 wk 6 | at TEN | yes | |
| 2024 wk 5 | at JAX | yes | |
| 2023 wk 14 | at CIN | no | |
| 2023 wk 9 | at CAR | yes | |
| 2023 wk 6 | at JAX | no | |
| 2023 wk 3 | at BAL | yes |
48IND have covered 10 of 14 on the road when our model likes them
The 14 games
| Game | Spot | Stat | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 wk 18 | at HOU | yes | |
| 2025 wk 15 | at SEA | yes | |
| 2025 wk 12 | at KC | yes | |
| 2025 wk 7 | at LAC | yes | |
| 2025 wk 4 | at LA | no | |
| 2024 wk 11 | at NYJ | yes | |
| 2024 wk 8 | at HOU | yes | |
| 2024 wk 6 | at TEN | yes | |
| 2024 wk 5 | at JAX | yes | |
| 2023 wk 16 | at ATL | no | |
| 2023 wk 14 | at CIN | no | |
| 2023 wk 9 | at CAR | yes | |
| 2023 wk 6 | at JAX | no | |
| 2023 wk 3 | at BAL | yes |
45NYG have gone over 12 of 16 as an underdog of 7 or more
The 16 games
| Game | Spot | Stat | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 wk 13 | at NE | yes | |
| 2025 wk 12 | at DET | yes | |
| 2025 wk 11 | at GB | yes | |
| 2025 wk 8 | at PHI | yes | |
| 2025 wk 7 | at DEN | yes | |
| 2025 wk 6 | at PHI | yes | |
| 2024 wk 17 | at IND | yes | |
| 2024 wk 16 | at ATL | no | |
| 2024 wk 15 | at BAL | yes | |
| 2024 wk 5 | at SEA | yes | |
| 2023 wk 16 | at PHI | yes | |
| 2023 wk 11 | at WAS | yes | |
| 2023 wk 10 | at DAL | yes | |
| 2023 wk 6 | at BUF | no | |
| 2023 wk 5 | at MIA | no | |
| 2023 wk 3 | at SF | no |
45GB have gone over 9 of 10 on the road when our model fades them
The 10 games
| Game | Spot | Stat | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 wk 15 | at DEN | yes | |
| 2025 wk 13 | at DET | yes | |
| 2025 wk 11 | at NYG | yes | |
| 2025 wk 8 | at PIT | yes | |
| 2025 wk 7 | at ARI | yes | |
| 2025 wk 4 | at DAL | yes | |
| 2025 wk 3 | at CLE | no | |
| 2024 wk 8 | at JAX | yes | |
| 2023 wk 17 | at MIN | yes | |
| 2023 wk 14 | at NYG | yes |
44ARI have gone over 18 of 25 at home
The 25 games
| Game | Spot | Stat | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 wk 16 | at ATL | no | |
| 2025 wk 14 | at LA | yes | |
| 2025 wk 12 | at JAX | yes | |
| 2025 wk 11 | at SF | yes | |
| 2025 wk 7 | at GB | yes | |
| 2025 wk 5 | at TEN | yes | |
| 2025 wk 4 | at SEA | no | |
| 2025 wk 2 | at CAR | yes | |
| 2024 wk 18 | at SF | yes | |
| 2024 wk 15 | at NE | yes | |
| 2024 wk 14 | at SEA | yes | |
| 2024 wk 10 | at NYJ | no | |
| 2024 wk 9 | at CHI | no | |
| 2024 wk 7 | at LAC | no | |
| 2024 wk 4 | at WAS | yes | |
| 2024 wk 3 | at DET | no | |
| 2024 wk 2 | at LA | yes | |
| 2023 wk 18 | at SEA | no | |
| 2023 wk 15 | at SF | yes | |
| 2023 wk 12 | at LA | yes | |
| 2023 wk 10 | at ATL | yes | |
| 2023 wk 8 | at BAL | yes | |
| 2023 wk 5 | at CIN | yes | |
| 2023 wk 3 | at DAL | yes | |
| 2023 wk 2 | at NYG | yes |
28TEN have gone over 10 of 14 as an underdog when our model likes them
The 14 games
| Game | Spot | Stat | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 wk 12 | at SEA | yes | |
| 2025 wk 8 | at IND | yes | |
| 2025 wk 7 | at NE | yes | |
| 2025 wk 4 | at HOU | no | |
| 2025 wk 2 | at LA | yes | |
| 2024 wk 15 | at CIN | yes | |
| 2024 wk 10 | at LAC | yes | |
| 2024 wk 7 | at BUF | yes | |
| 2024 wk 2 | at NYJ | no | |
| 2023 wk 18 | at JAX | yes | |
| 2023 wk 9 | at PIT | no | |
| 2023 wk 8 | at ATL | yes | |
| 2023 wk 6 | at BAL | no | |
| 2023 wk 2 | at LAC | yes |
25LAC have covered 10 of 14 indoors when our model fades them
The 14 games
| Game | Spot | Stat | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 wk 13 | at LV | yes | |
| 2025 wk 8 | at MIN | yes | |
| 2025 wk 7 | at IND | no | |
| 2025 wk 2 | at LV | yes | |
| 2024 wk 18 | at LV | yes | |
| 2024 wk 16 | at DEN | yes | |
| 2024 wk 13 | at ATL | yes | |
| 2024 wk 10 | at TEN | yes | |
| 2024 wk 8 | at NO | yes | |
| 2024 wk 7 | at ARI | no | |
| 2024 wk 1 | at LV | yes | |
| 2023 wk 18 | at KC | no | |
| 2023 wk 8 | at CHI | yes | |
| 2023 wk 1 | at MIA | no |
25MIN have covered 12 of 16 outdoors
The 16 games
| Game | Spot | Stat | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 wk 16 | at NYG | yes | |
| 2025 wk 13 | at SEA | no | |
| 2025 wk 12 | at GB | no | |
| 2025 wk 5 | at CLE | yes | |
| 2025 wk 4 | at PIT | no | |
| 2025 wk 1 | at CHI | yes | |
| 2024 wk 16 | at SEA | yes | |
| 2024 wk 11 | at TEN | yes | |
| 2024 wk 10 | at JAX | no | |
| 2024 wk 5 | at NYJ | yes | |
| 2024 wk 4 | at GB | yes | |
| 2024 wk 1 | at NYG | yes | |
| 2023 wk 11 | at DEN | yes | |
| 2023 wk 8 | at GB | yes | |
| 2023 wk 6 | at CHI | yes | |
| 2023 wk 4 | at CAR | yes |
25DET have covered 12 of 15 when our model fades them
The 15 games
| Game | Spot | Stat | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 wk 17 | at MIN | no | |
| 2025 wk 10 | at WAS | yes | |
| 2025 wk 5 | at CIN | yes | |
| 2025 wk 2 | at CHI | yes | |
| 2024 wk 17 | at SF | yes | |
| 2024 wk 10 | at HOU | no | |
| 2024 wk 8 | at TEN | yes | |
| 2024 wk 6 | at DAL | yes | |
| 2024 wk 3 | at ARI | yes | |
| 2024 wk 2 | at TB | no | |
| 2023 wk 17 | at DAL | yes | |
| 2023 wk 8 | at LV | yes | |
| 2023 wk 6 | at TB | yes | |
| 2023 wk 4 | at GB | yes | |
| 2023 wk 1 | at KC | yes |
21NE have gone over 10 of 13 at home when our model likes them
The 13 games
| Game | Spot | Stat | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 wk 15 | at BUF | yes | |
| 2025 wk 13 | at NYG | yes | |
| 2025 wk 9 | at ATL | yes | |
| 2025 wk 8 | at CLE | yes | |
| 2025 wk 3 | at PIT | no | |
| 2024 wk 11 | at LA | yes | |
| 2024 wk 8 | at NYJ | yes | |
| 2024 wk 6 | at HOU | yes | |
| 2024 wk 5 | at MIA | no | |
| 2024 wk 2 | at SEA | yes | |
| 2023 wk 13 | at LAC | no | |
| 2023 wk 7 | at BUF | yes | |
| 2023 wk 1 | at PHI | yes |
19DAL have covered 7 of 10 in a division game when our model fades them
The 10 games
| Game | Spot | Stat | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 wk 17 | at WAS | no | |
| 2025 wk 7 | at WAS | yes | |
| 2025 wk 1 | at PHI | yes | |
| 2024 wk 17 | at PHI | no | |
| 2024 wk 12 | at WAS | yes | |
| 2024 wk 4 | at NYG | no | |
| 2023 wk 18 | at WAS | yes | |
| 2023 wk 12 | at WAS | yes | |
| 2023 wk 10 | at NYG | yes | |
| 2023 wk 1 | at NYG | yes |
18DET have covered 9 of 11 on the road when our model fades them
The 11 games
| Game | Spot | Stat | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 wk 17 | at MIN | no | |
| 2025 wk 10 | at WAS | yes | |
| 2025 wk 5 | at CIN | yes | |
| 2024 wk 17 | at SF | yes | |
| 2024 wk 10 | at HOU | no | |
| 2024 wk 6 | at DAL | yes | |
| 2024 wk 3 | at ARI | yes | |
| 2023 wk 17 | at DAL | yes | |
| 2023 wk 6 | at TB | yes | |
| 2023 wk 4 | at GB | yes | |
| 2023 wk 1 | at KC | yes |
6 more game trends
15WAS have gone over 13 of 18 in a division game
The 18 games
| Game | Spot | Stat | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 wk 18 | at PHI | yes | |
| 2025 wk 17 | at DAL | yes | |
| 2025 wk 16 | at PHI | yes | |
| 2025 wk 15 | at NYG | yes | |
| 2025 wk 7 | at DAL | yes | |
| 2025 wk 1 | at NYG | no | |
| 2024 wk 18 | at DAL | no | |
| 2024 wk 16 | at PHI | yes | |
| 2024 wk 12 | at DAL | yes | |
| 2024 wk 11 | at PHI | no | |
| 2024 wk 9 | at NYG | yes | |
| 2024 wk 2 | at NYG | no | |
| 2023 wk 18 | at DAL | yes | |
| 2023 wk 12 | at DAL | yes | |
| 2023 wk 11 | at NYG | yes | |
| 2023 wk 8 | at PHI | yes | |
| 2023 wk 7 | at NYG | no | |
| 2023 wk 4 | at PHI | yes |
13MIA have gone over 8 of 11 on the road when our model likes them
The 11 games
| Game | Spot | Stat | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 wk 18 | at NE | yes | |
| 2025 wk 15 | at PIT | yes | |
| 2025 wk 7 | at CLE | yes | |
| 2025 wk 5 | at CAR | yes | |
| 2025 wk 3 | at BUF | yes | |
| 2025 wk 1 | at IND | no | |
| 2024 wk 18 | at NYJ | yes | |
| 2024 wk 17 | at CLE | no | |
| 2023 wk 7 | at PHI | no | |
| 2023 wk 4 | at BUF | yes | |
| 2023 wk 1 | at LAC | yes |
11TEN have gone over 7 of 10 at home when our model likes them
The 10 games
| Game | Spot | Stat | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 wk 12 | at SEA | yes | |
| 2025 wk 7 | at NE | yes | |
| 2025 wk 2 | at LA | yes | |
| 2024 wk 15 | at CIN | yes | |
| 2024 wk 2 | at NYJ | no | |
| 2023 wk 18 | at JAX | yes | |
| 2023 wk 12 | at CAR | no | |
| 2023 wk 8 | at ATL | yes | |
| 2023 wk 6 | at BAL | no | |
| 2023 wk 2 | at LAC | yes |
9WAS have gone over 8 of 11 in a division game when our model likes them
The 11 games
| Game | Spot | Stat | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 wk 17 | at DAL | yes | |
| 2025 wk 16 | at PHI | yes | |
| 2025 wk 15 | at NYG | yes | |
| 2025 wk 7 | at DAL | yes | |
| 2024 wk 18 | at DAL | no | |
| 2024 wk 16 | at PHI | yes | |
| 2024 wk 12 | at DAL | yes | |
| 2024 wk 11 | at PHI | no | |
| 2024 wk 9 | at NYG | yes | |
| 2024 wk 2 | at NYG | no | |
| 2023 wk 18 | at DAL | yes |
9LAC have covered 7 of 10 at home when our model fades them
The 10 games
| Game | Spot | Stat | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 wk 13 | at LV | yes | |
| 2025 wk 8 | at MIN | yes | |
| 2025 wk 7 | at IND | no | |
| 2024 wk 16 | at DEN | yes | |
| 2024 wk 10 | at TEN | yes | |
| 2024 wk 8 | at NO | yes | |
| 2024 wk 1 | at LV | yes | |
| 2023 wk 18 | at KC | no | |
| 2023 wk 8 | at CHI | yes | |
| 2023 wk 1 | at MIA | no |
0PIT have covered 8 of 11 outdoors when our model fades them
The 11 games
| Game | Spot | Stat | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 wk 15 | at MIA | yes | |
| 2025 wk 3 | at NE | yes | |
| 2025 wk 2 | at SEA | no | |
| 2025 wk 1 | at NYJ | no | |
| 2024 wk 11 | at BAL | yes | |
| 2024 wk 10 | at WAS | yes | |
| 2024 wk 3 | at LAC | yes | |
| 2023 wk 18 | at BAL | yes | |
| 2023 wk 12 | at CIN | yes | |
| 2023 wk 11 | at CLE | no | |
| 2023 wk 9 | at TEN | yes |
How the trends grade. Prop board: 331 logged, 276 of them after kickoff, none graded yet. Player trends: 53 logged, none graded yet. Team trends: 54 logged, none graded yet. League trends: 9 logged, none graded yet.