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Week 3 · Saturday, September 19 · 6:00 PM ET

Charlotte at App State

App State -17.5At App State · American Athletic · Sun Belt
Total 51.5
The read

App State is favored by 17.5 at home against Charlotte, and the total is 51.5. Our number has App State by 10.3, so the lean is Charlotte +17.5. A lean, not a play. Charlotte has covered 8 of 10 on the road when our model likes them, 2023-2026, better than the 10-17 they are everywhere else.

Spread
App State -17.5
Charlotte +17.5
Total
51.5
Over and under
Moneyline
App State -1300
Charlotte +725

Our number vs the market

The lean
Charlotte +17.5
A lean, not a play
Our number
App State by 10.3
Market has Charlotte +17.5
Gap
7.2 pts
Between our number and the market

College is leans only. The model has no proven edge against the spread here, so this is where we disagree with the market, not a bet we are telling you to make.

How each team covers in this spot

Charlotte
Charlotte has covered 8 of 10 on the road when our model likes them, 2023-2026.
8 of 10, 80% in this spot
10 of 27, 37% in every other spot
Charlotte has covered 7 of 9 as an underdog of 14 or more when our model likes them, 2023-2026.
7 of 9, 78% in this spot
11 of 28, 39% in every other spot
App State
Nothing about this spot has moved their cover rate. That is a finding too.

Against the spread and the total, the last three seasons plus this one, pushes left out. Only the conditions that are true of this game, only where the team has at least 8 games in the spot, and only where the team beats the whole league in that spot. The second bar is the same team everywhere else.