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Week 3 · Saturday, September 19 · 3:30 PM ET

Florida State at Alabama

Alabama -19.8At Alabama · ACC · SEC
Total 48.8
The read

Alabama is favored by 19.8 at home against Florida State, and the total is 48.8. Alabama comes in ranked. Our number has Alabama by 23, so the lean is Alabama -19.8. A lean, not a play. Florida State has covered 6 of 8 against a ranked team, 2023-2026, better than the 11-18 they are everywhere else.

Spread
Alabama -19.8
Florida State +19.8
Total
48.8
Over and under
Moneyline
Alabama -1475
Florida State +812.5

Our number vs the market

The lean
Alabama -19.8
A lean, not a play
Our number
Alabama by 23
Market has Alabama -19.8
Gap
3.2 pts
Between our number and the market

College is leans only. The model has no proven edge against the spread here, so this is where we disagree with the market, not a bet we are telling you to make.

How each team covers in this spot

Florida State
Florida State has covered 6 of 8 against a ranked team, 2023-2026.
6 of 8, 75% in this spot
11 of 29, 38% in every other spot
Alabama
Alabama has covered 17 of 22 at home, 2023-2026.
17 of 22, 77% in this spot
8 of 16, 50% in every other spot

Against the spread and the total, the last three seasons plus this one, pushes left out. Only the conditions that are true of this game, only where the team has at least 8 games in the spot, and only where the team beats the whole league in that spot. The second bar is the same team everywhere else.

Florida State →Alabama →
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