New: Be A GM College lets you run your NIL budget, fight the portal, and play the season. Try it.
Week 3 · Saturday, September 19 · 7:00 PM ET

Georgia Southern at Jacksonville State

Jacksonville State -3At Jacksonville State · Sun Belt · Conference USA
Total 52.5
The read

Jacksonville State is favored by 3 at home against Georgia Southern, and the total is 52.5. Our number has Jacksonville State by 9.4, so the lean is Jacksonville State -3. A lean, not a play. Jacksonville State has covered 15 of 20 at home, 2023-2026, better than the 8-13 they are everywhere else.

Spread
Jacksonville State -3
Georgia Southern +3
Total
52.5
Over and under
Moneyline
Jacksonville State -177.5
Georgia Southern +150

Our number vs the market

The lean
Jacksonville State -3
A lean, not a play
Our number
Jacksonville State by 9.4
Market has Jacksonville State -3
Gap
6.4 pts
Between our number and the market

College is leans only. The model has no proven edge against the spread here, so this is where we disagree with the market, not a bet we are telling you to make.

How each team covers in this spot

Georgia Southern
Nothing about this spot has moved their cover rate. That is a finding too.
Jacksonville State
Jacksonville State has covered 9 of 11 at home when our model likes them, 2023-2026.
9 of 11, 82% in this spot
14 of 30, 47% in every other spot
Jacksonville State has covered 15 of 20 at home, 2023-2026.
15 of 20, 75% in this spot
8 of 21, 38% in every other spot

Against the spread and the total, the last three seasons plus this one, pushes left out. Only the conditions that are true of this game, only where the team has at least 8 games in the spot, and only where the team beats the whole league in that spot. The second bar is the same team everywhere else.