Week 3 · Saturday, September 19 · 7:00 PM ET
Georgia State at 
UCF
UCF -18.2At UCF · Sun Belt · Big 12
Total 50.5
Total 50.5
The read
UCF is favored by 18.2 at home against Georgia State, and the total is 50.5. Our number has UCF by 9.6, so the lean is Georgia State +18.2. A lean, not a play. UCF has covered 6 of 8 as a favorite of 14 or more, 2023-2026, better than the 10-20 they are everywhere else.
Spread
UCF -18.2Georgia State +18.2
Total
50.5Over and under
Moneyline
UCF -1350Georgia State +762.5
Our number vs the market
The lean
Georgia State +18.2A lean, not a play
Our number
UCF by 9.6Market has Georgia State +18.2
Gap
8.6 ptsBetween our number and the market
College is leans only. The model has no proven edge against the spread here, so this is where we disagree with the market, not a bet we are telling you to make.
How each team covers in this spot
Georgia StateNothing about this spot has moved their cover rate. That is a finding too.
UCFUCF has covered 6 of 8 as a favorite of 14 or more, 2023-2026.
6 of 8, 75% in this spot
10 of 30, 33% in every other spot
UCF has gone over 6 of 8 as a favorite of 14 or more, 2023-2026.
6 of 8, 75% in this spot
15 of 30, 50% in every other spot
Against the spread and the total, the last three seasons plus this one, pushes left out. Only the conditions that are true of this game, only where the team has at least 8 games in the spot, and only where the team beats the whole league in that spot. The second bar is the same team everywhere else.