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Week 3 · Friday, September 18 · 8:00 PM ET

Houston at Texas Tech

Texas Tech -7.5At Texas Tech · Big 12
Total 53
The read

Texas Tech is favored by 7.5 at home against Houston, and the total is 53. Both teams are ranked. Our number has Texas Tech by 12.9, so the lean is Texas Tech -7.5. A lean, not a play. Houston has covered 7 of 9 when our model fades them, 2023-2026, better than the 13-15 they are everywhere else.

Spread
Texas Tech -7.5
Houston +7.5
Total
53
Over and under
Moneyline
Texas Tech -300
Houston +270

Our number vs the market

The lean
Texas Tech -7.5
A lean, not a play
Our number
Texas Tech by 12.9
Market has Texas Tech -7.5
Gap
5.4 pts
Between our number and the market

College is leans only. The model has no proven edge against the spread here, so this is where we disagree with the market, not a bet we are telling you to make.

How each team covers in this spot

Houston
Houston has covered 7 of 9 when our model fades them, 2023-2026.
7 of 9, 78% in this spot
13 of 28, 46% in every other spot
Texas Tech
Nothing about this spot has moved their cover rate. That is a finding too.

Against the spread and the total, the last three seasons plus this one, pushes left out. Only the conditions that are true of this game, only where the team has at least 8 games in the spot, and only where the team beats the whole league in that spot. The second bar is the same team everywhere else.

Player trends that apply to this game

Trent WalkerWR has 6 of his last 6 games on the road as an underdog with 50+ receiving yards.
6 of 6, 100% in this spot · 2024-2025
10 of 22, 46% in every other spot

The second number is the point. Everyone posts the first one. Game logs through last season; this season joins the file as it is played.