Week 3 · Saturday, September 19 · 3:30 PM ET

Kentucky at Texas A&M

Texas A&M -16.8At Texas A&M · SEC
Total 50

The read

Texas A&M is favored by 16.8 at home against Kentucky, and the total is 50. Texas A&M comes in ranked. Our number has Texas A&M by 20.8, so the lean is Texas A&M -16.8. A lean, not a play. Kentucky has gone over 8 of 9 against a ranked team when our model fades them, 2023-2026, better than the 11-17 they are everywhere else.

Spread

Texas A&M -16.8

Kentucky +16.8

Total

Over and under

Moneyline

Texas A&M -800

Kentucky +537.5

Our number vs the market

The lean

Texas A&M -16.8

A lean, not a play

Our number

Texas A&M by 20.8

Market has Texas A&M -16.8

Gap

4 pts

Between our number and the market

College is leans only. The model has no proven edge against the spread here, so this is where we disagree with the market, not a bet we are telling you to make.

How each team covers in this spot

Kentucky

Kentucky has gone over 8 of 9 against a ranked team when our model fades them, 2023-2026.

8 of 9, 89% in this spot

11 of 28, 39% in every other spot

Kentucky has gone over 9 of 11 as an underdog when our model fades them, 2023-2026.

9 of 11, 82% in this spot

10 of 26, 38% in every other spot

Texas A&M

Nothing about this spot has moved their cover rate. That is a finding too.

Against the spread and the total, the last three seasons plus this one, pushes left out. Only the conditions that are true of this game, only where the team has at least 8 games in the spot, and only where the team beats the whole league in that spot. The second bar is the same team everywhere else.

Kentucky →Texas A&M →

Every college trend this week College lines All games this week