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Week 3 · Saturday, September 19 · 7:30 PM ET

LSU at Ole Miss

LSU -3At Ole Miss · SEC
Total 59.2
The read

LSU is favored by 3 on the road against Ole Miss, and the total is 59.2. Both teams are ranked. Our number has Ole Miss by 6.2, so the lean is Ole Miss +3. A lean, not a play. LSU has gone over 8 of 11 in conference play when our model fades them, 2023-2026, better than the 12-15 they are everywhere else.

Spread
LSU -3
Ole Miss +3
Total
59.2
Over and under
Moneyline
Ole Miss +130
LSU -160

Our number vs the market

The lean
Ole Miss +3
A lean, not a play
Our number
Ole Miss by 6.2
Market has Ole Miss +3
Gap
9.2 pts
Between our number and the market

College is leans only. The model has no proven edge against the spread here, so this is where we disagree with the market, not a bet we are telling you to make.

How each team covers in this spot

LSU
LSU has gone over 8 of 11 in conference play when our model fades them, 2023-2026.
8 of 11, 73% in this spot
12 of 27, 44% in every other spot
Ole Miss
Nothing about this spot has moved their cover rate. That is a finding too.

Against the spread and the total, the last three seasons plus this one, pushes left out. Only the conditions that are true of this game, only where the team has at least 8 games in the spot, and only where the team beats the whole league in that spot. The second bar is the same team everywhere else.

Player trends that apply to this game

Caden DurhamRB has 8 of his last 8 games as a favorite in conference play with 50+ rushing yards.
8 of 8, 100% in this spot · 2024-2025
5 of 17, 29% in every other spot
Trinidad ChamblissQB has 7 of his last 7 games against a ranked team with 250+ passing yards.
7 of 7, 100% in this spot · 2025-2026
5 of 8, 62% in every other spot
Jayce BrownWR has 9 of his last 10 games on the road in conference play with 50+ receiving yards.
9 of 10, 90% in this spot · 2023-2025
10 of 21, 48% in every other spot

The second number is the point. Everyone posts the first one. Game logs through last season; this season joins the file as it is played.