Week 3 · Saturday, September 19 · 3:00 PM ET
Temple at 
Toledo
Toledo -5.8At Toledo · American Athletic · Mid-American
Total 50.5
Total 50.5
The read
Toledo is favored by 5.8 at home against Temple, and the total is 50.5. Our number has Toledo by 14.8, so the lean is Toledo -5.8. A lean, not a play. Toledo has gone over 14 of 19 at home, 2023-2026, better than the 8-12 they are everywhere else.
Spread
Toledo -5.8Temple +5.8
Total
50.5Over and under
Moneyline
Toledo -214Temple +177.5
Our number vs the market
The lean
Toledo -5.8A lean, not a play
Our number
Toledo by 14.8Market has Toledo -5.8
Gap
9 ptsBetween our number and the market
College is leans only. The model has no proven edge against the spread here, so this is where we disagree with the market, not a bet we are telling you to make.
How each team covers in this spot
TempleNothing about this spot has moved their cover rate. That is a finding too.
ToledoToledo has gone over 14 of 19 at home, 2023-2026.
14 of 19, 74% in this spot
8 of 20, 40% in every other spot
Against the spread and the total, the last three seasons plus this one, pushes left out. Only the conditions that are true of this game, only where the team has at least 8 games in the spot, and only where the team beats the whole league in that spot. The second bar is the same team everywhere else.