Week 3 · Saturday, September 19 · 7:00 PM ET
Troy at 
Missouri
Missouri -26.8At Missouri · Sun Belt · SEC
Total 50
Total 50
The read
Missouri is favored by 26.8 at home against Troy, and the total is 50. Missouri comes in ranked. Missouri has covered 10 of 11 when our model fades them, 2023-2026, better than the 13-13 they are everywhere else.
Spread
Missouri -26.8Troy +26.8
Total
50Over and under
Moneyline
Missouri -6500Troy +1650
Our number vs the market
No lean here. Our number and the market are close enough that there is nothing to say, and we do not manufacture one.
How each team covers in this spot
TroyTroy has covered 14 of 19 on the road, 2023-2026.
14 of 19, 74% in this spot
9 of 20, 45% in every other spot
MissouriMissouri has covered 10 of 11 when our model fades them, 2023-2026.
10 of 11, 91% in this spot
13 of 26, 50% in every other spot
Missouri has covered 7 of 8 as a favorite when our model fades them, 2023-2026.
7 of 8, 88% in this spot
16 of 29, 55% in every other spot
Against the spread and the total, the last three seasons plus this one, pushes left out. Only the conditions that are true of this game, only where the team has at least 8 games in the spot, and only where the team beats the whole league in that spot. The second bar is the same team everywhere else.