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Week 3 · Saturday, September 19 · 8:00 PM ET

UTSA at Texas

Texas -30.2At Texas · American Athletic · SEC
Total 58.2
The read

Texas is favored by 30.2 at home against UTSA, and the total is 58.2. Texas comes in ranked. UTSA has gone over 7 of 8 in prime time when our model likes them, 2023-2026, better than the 14-13 they are everywhere else.

Spread
Texas -30.2
UTSA +30.2
Total
58.2
Over and under
Moneyline
Texas -8000
UTSA +2200

Our number vs the market

No lean here. Our number and the market are close enough that there is nothing to say, and we do not manufacture one.

How each team covers in this spot

UTSA
UTSA has gone over 7 of 8 in prime time when our model likes them, 2023-2026.
7 of 8, 88% in this spot
14 of 27, 52% in every other spot
UTSA has gone over 11 of 15 when our model likes them, 2023-2026.
11 of 15, 73% in this spot
10 of 20, 50% in every other spot
Texas
Texas has covered 8 of 11 as a favorite of 14 or more when our model fades them, 2023-2026.
8 of 11, 73% in this spot
11 of 29, 38% in every other spot
Texas has covered 6 of 8 at home when our model fades them, 2023-2026.
6 of 8, 75% in this spot
13 of 32, 41% in every other spot

Against the spread and the total, the last three seasons plus this one, pushes left out. Only the conditions that are true of this game, only where the team has at least 8 games in the spot, and only where the team beats the whole league in that spot. The second bar is the same team everywhere else.

Player trends that apply to this game

Hollywood SmothersRB has 8 of his last 10 games as a favorite with 50+ rushing yards.
8 of 10, 80% in this spot · 2024-2026
5 of 11, 46% in every other spot

The second number is the point. Everyone posts the first one. Game logs through last season; this season joins the file as it is played.

UTSA →Texas →
Every college trend this weekCollege linesAll games this week