New: Be A GM College lets you run your NIL budget, fight the portal, and play the season. Try it.
Week 3 · Saturday, September 19 · 7:30 PM ET

Virginia Tech at Maryland

Virginia Tech -3At Maryland · ACC · Big Ten
Total 53.8
The read

Virginia Tech is favored by 3 on the road against Maryland, and the total is 53.8. Our number has Maryland by 4.7, so the lean is Maryland +3. A lean, not a play. Virginia Tech has gone over 18 of 24 as a favorite, 2023-2026, better than the 5-9 they are everywhere else.

Spread
Virginia Tech -3
Maryland +3
Total
53.8
Over and under
Moneyline
Maryland +130
Virginia Tech -153.5

Our number vs the market

The lean
Maryland +3
A lean, not a play
Our number
Maryland by 4.7
Market has Maryland +3
Gap
7.7 pts
Between our number and the market

College is leans only. The model has no proven edge against the spread here, so this is where we disagree with the market, not a bet we are telling you to make.

How each team covers in this spot

Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech has gone over 8 of 10 as a favorite when our model fades them, 2023-2026.
8 of 10, 80% in this spot
15 of 28, 54% in every other spot
Virginia Tech has gone over 18 of 24 as a favorite, 2023-2026.
18 of 24, 75% in this spot
5 of 14, 36% in every other spot
Maryland
Maryland has gone over 16 of 22 at home, 2023-2026.
16 of 22, 73% in this spot
6 of 16, 38% in every other spot

Against the spread and the total, the last three seasons plus this one, pushes left out. Only the conditions that are true of this game, only where the team has at least 8 games in the spot, and only where the team beats the whole league in that spot. The second bar is the same team everywhere else.

Player trends that apply to this game

Bill DavisRB has 8 of his last 10 games as a favorite with 50+ rushing yards.
8 of 10, 80% in this spot · 2024-2025
6 of 12, 50% in every other spot

The second number is the point. Everyone posts the first one. Game logs through last season; this season joins the file as it is played.